Galaxy Research argues that Bitcoin has already bottomed and that holding BTC is attractive. Its report was published on October 26, after being sent to clients on October 22. The investment question is whether improving conditions can support a durable recovery while the shorter-term chart still faces resistance.
What supports Galaxy's bullish case?
In its original research, Alex Thorn highlights five consecutive weekly closes above the 50-week moving average after 44 weeks below it, a June test of the 200-week average, lighter speculative positioning, and fiscal pressures supporting demand for scarce assets. He also cites slower spending of coins dormant for at least five years: monthly averages of 67,000 BTC in 2024, 47,000 in 2025 and 34,000 in 2026.
The important distinction is between a thesis and a confirmed future outcome. Several indicators pointing in the same direction can strengthen an argument without removing the possibility of another decline. They also measure different things: trend persistence, the potential supply offered to the market and investors' reasons for wanting exposure. A convincing case needs those elements to reinforce one another over time.
Less selling is helpful, but new demand still matters
Old-coin movement is a useful supply clue, not a direct count of coins sold. An on-chain transfer may reflect a change in custody or a holder reorganizing wallets. Conversely, trading on an exchange can change economic ownership without creating an immediately visible withdrawal. Treating every old output spent as a sale would overstate what the data establish.
The economic question is whether buyers absorb available supply without requiring progressively lower prices. If distribution slows but demand also weakens, price can remain range-bound. If supply comes back as a rally reaches old resistance, an apparently quiet market can become heavy again. Stronger evidence would combine resilient spot demand, improving price structure and a market able to hold gains after the initial burst of buying.
Futures positioning needs similar care. A smaller short position can represent less directional bearish exposure, but it can also be the unwinding of a hedged trade. Buying an ETF while shorting futures, for example, has different economics from simply betting that BTC will fall. Position sizes alone do not reveal every participant's intention.
What does the KTX daily chart show?
The KTX BTC/USDT chart below shows a price of 81,228.01 USDT, a 24-hour gain of 1.78%, a high of 81,300 and a low of 79,510.01. The broader visible pattern includes an advance from roughly 63,000, a pullback toward 75,000, a rally above 85,000 and a subsequent retreat toward 80,000. These are observations from the supplied chart, not live quotes or Galaxy's own technical levels.
The latest bounce has not yet recovered the earlier highs. That leaves two compatible possibilities: BTC may be forming a base within a longer recovery, or the rebound may run into another lower high. A bullish cycle view does not require every daily candle to rise, but repeated failures at nearby resistance would delay confirmation that buyers have regained control.
The active candle shows volume of 152 BTC alongside volume averages of 504, 632 and 634. Because the candle may still be developing, comparing that partial volume with completed periods would be misleading. The 24-hour turnover of 48.89 million USDT is a separate measure. Neither figure represents the whole global Bitcoin market. For the recent support context, see why the $79,000–$80,000 area matters for BTC.
Which conditions would strengthen or weaken the thesis?
A bottom is easier to identify retrospectively than in real time. A practical framework therefore asks what price must do next and what would change the interpretation. The table separates observations from the daily chart from the longer-term risk test.
| Reference | Constructive evidence | Warning |
|---|---|---|
| About $79,500–$80,000 | Pullbacks hold or quickly reclaim support | A sustained loss and weak recovery attempts |
| About $81,300 | Price holds above the nearby high, then forms a higher low | A brief break that immediately reverses |
| About $84,000–$85,000 | Broader resistance is reclaimed with sustained participation | Another lower high beneath earlier peaks |
| 50-week moving average | The longer-term reclaim persists | The report's weekly trend test fails |
Galaxy's stated warning is a weekly close below the 50-week average—76,540 dollars in its analysis—not recovered within a month. That reference moves with the average; it is not a fixed bottom price. The daily zones above are editorial chart observations, not Galaxy targets or guaranteed support.
What does buying and holding actually require?
Holding is a choice about exposure and time horizon, not an instruction to ignore evidence. Before entering, an investor needs to decide how much capital can remain exposed through a large drawdown, whether near-term expenses require liquidity, and what would prompt a review. Those decisions matter even if the market eventually recovers, because a forced sale can occur before that recovery arrives.
A staged approach changes entry timing rather than the asset's underlying risk. Investor.gov defines dollar-cost averaging as investing equal amounts at regular intervals irrespective of market fluctuations. It can spread purchases across different prices, but it does not guarantee a favorable average cost or a profit. Continuing to buy without a budget or a review condition is different from following a defined allocation plan.
Readers monitoring this setup can use KTX BTC/USDT spot to compare the latest price, completed candles and available liquidity. Spot exposure and leveraged contracts also have different holding risks: leverage can force an exit before a long-term view has time to play out.
What deserves attention next?
The next useful evidence is whether the rebound survives its first meaningful retest, whether price can build above nearby resistance, and whether participation persists beyond a short covering burst. Monitor completed candles on the timeframe relevant to the thesis rather than switching timeframes whenever one looks more favorable. Our explanation of the BTC rebound and the 50-week moving average gives additional context for distinguishing an initial reclaim from a sustained trend.
Frequently asked questions
Does a bottom mean an immediate return to the previous high?
No. A market can form a cycle low, consolidate for an extended period and suffer substantial pullbacks before any further advance.
Is an intraday break the same as a weekly close?
No. An intraday move is temporary price action. A weekly-close condition is evaluated when that weekly candle completes; the two should not be substituted.
Does 50 weeks mean 50 days?
No. A 50-week average uses weekly observations and describes a much longer window than a 50-day average.
Can different BTC venues show different levels?
Yes. Trading pairs, liquidity and candle cutoff times can differ. Compare like-for-like data before treating a small price difference as a broken signal.
Information assessed on October 28, 2026. Cryptocurrency prices are volatile. This article is for information only and does not constitute investment advice.