Summary
BTC has weakened again, briefly falling to around $79,500, bringing the $79,000 level back into focus as a key support zone. More concerning than the latest drop itself is the fact that recent rebounds have gradually lost momentum: BTC has repeatedly failed to break above $84,000, struggled to hold $82,000, and is now finding it increasingly difficult to stay above $80,000.
At the same time, BTC has broken below its 10-day and 20-day moving averages on the daily chart, while the 4-hour moving averages are also pressing down on price. For now, the short-term structure does not show a clear sign of a strong reversal.
In our previous article, we discussed whether there was actually meaningful buying interest around $81,000. The market is now taking that question one step further: can those buyers actually defend the next major support level?
If $79,000 holds and BTC quickly reclaims $80,500, the market may still have room to continue forming a bottom. However, if $79,000 is decisively broken and the daily chart fails to recover the level, BTC could potentially test around $78,000 or even $76,300.
BTC’s Situation Is Starting to Look Different
A few days ago, we were asking:
Was BTC’s move back to $81,000 actually a buying opportunity?
The key question at that time was:
After the sell-off, was there actually meaningful buying demand left in the market?
Now, the market is starting to provide a new answer.
BTC weakened further today and briefly moved toward $79,500.
That puts an important price area back into focus:
$79,000.
But this time, what matters most is not that BTC dropped another few thousand dollars.
It is this:
Recent rebounds are getting weaker and weaker.
BTC failed to break above $84,000.
Then it struggled to hold $82,000.
Now, even $80,000 is becoming increasingly difficult to defend.
This points to a noticeable change in market structure:
Buyers may still be present, but their ability to push price higher is weakening.
And that may be more important than the latest decline itself.
1. BTC Fell to $79,500 — Why Has $79K Become the Key Defense Line?
If we connect the recent price structure, $79,000 is not a random number that suddenly appeared.
The market has already spent considerable time fighting around the $80,000 area.
Now that BTC is moving closer to $79,000, the previous demand zone is facing greater pressure.
From a market-structure perspective:
$79K looks like one of the most important support levels bulls need to defend right now.
If BTC finds meaningful demand around $79K and quickly reclaims $80,000 or even $80,500, the market could still continue forming a bottom.
In other words:
A brief break below a level does not automatically mean the trend has reversed.
What matters is what happens afterward:
Can BTC quickly recover the level it broke?
That is an important distinction when evaluating whether support has actually failed.
For example:
$79K tested
→ Selling pressure appears
→ Buyers step in
→ BTC returns above $80K
In this scenario, $79K could actually become another bottoming test.
But if we see:
$79K breaks
→ Rebound lacks strength
→ BTC fails to reclaim $80K
→ Daily candle closes below $79K
Then the market structure would deteriorate significantly.
So the most important question right now is not:
“Is $79K the absolute bottom?”
It is:
“After $79K is tested, can the market push BTC back up?”
2. The Bigger Warning Is That Every Rebound Is Getting Weaker
If we only look at today's decline, it is easy to focus on:
How much further did BTC fall?
But when we compare the recent rebounds, another signal becomes much clearer.
BTC was previously able to challenge $84,000.
Then:
$84K failed.
After that, BTC rebounded toward $82,000 but failed to establish a stable position above it.
Now:
Even $80,000 is becoming difficult to hold.
What does that mean?
Simply put:
Each rebound is reaching a lower level than the previous one.
That is more important than the decline itself.
A genuinely strong bottoming structure is usually not just:
Sell-off → rebound → another sell-off.
More importantly, buyers need to gradually push the price floor higher.
If every pullback is met with stronger buying and each rebound breaks the previous high, the market structure may be improving.
But if we see:
$84K → fails to break
$82K → fails to hold
$80K → increasingly difficult
Then the market effectively tells us:
Bulls are losing their ability to push prices higher.
So the question is no longer simple:
“Are people buying?”
It is:
“Do buyers still have enough strength?”
3. This Is Exactly What We Were Discussing in the Previous Article
In our previous article, we discussed an important point:
Higher trading volume does not necessarily mean that meaningful new capital has entered the market.
After BTC fell toward $81,000, there could have been three types of buyers:
- Existing holders averaging down
- Recent sellers afraid of missing a rebound
- New capital attempting to buy the dip
All three types of buyers can create short-term support.
But:
One round of buying does not equal a trend reversal.
What really matters is whether those buyers can continue pushing prices higher.
BTC moving back toward $79K is effectively another stress test for the buying interest that appeared earlier.
If that capital has genuine staying power, BTC should find meaningful support around key levels and begin repairing its structure.
But if every rebound continues to become weaker, it could suggest that previous buying was more about short-term support rather than enough incremental demand to change the broader trend.
That is why it is too early to simply say:
“BTC has already fallen so much, so it must be a buy.”
The market is now asking a second question:
“Even if buyers are present, are they strong enough?”
4. BTC Has Broken Below Its 10-Day and 20-Day Moving Averages — What Does That Mean?
Beyond price itself, the technical structure is also changing.
BTC has now fallen below its 10-day and 20-day moving averages on the daily chart.
This means short-term price action has moved back below these key moving averages.
For trend traders, this is generally not a particularly strong signal.
When the market is in a clearly bullish structure, prices typically need to remain above short-term moving averages to maintain a healthy upward rhythm.
Now we are seeing:
Below the 10-day MA → below the 20-day MA → moving averages becoming resistance.
This suggests that the short-term trend is weakening.
The 4-hour structure is even clearer.
Multiple moving averages are now positioned above price.
In other words:
Every rebound may encounter additional short-term selling pressure.
This helps explain why recent rebounds have become weaker.
It is not necessarily that there are no buyers.
Rather:
Selling pressure above the market is continuously consuming the strength of each rebound.
Therefore, if we want to determine whether BTC is becoming strong again, simply looking for a rebound is not enough.
More important is:
Can the rebound reclaim the key moving averages and key price zones?
5. If $79K Holds, BTC Could Still Continue Building a Bottom
There is also no need to immediately conclude that BTC's broader trend is over simply because it moved below $80,000.
$79K remains an important level to watch.
If BTC finds meaningful demand around $79K and quickly reclaims $80K or even $80.5K, the market could still continue to form a bottom.
One possible structure would be:
$79K test → buyers appear → reclaim $80K → reclaim $80.5K → retest resistance above
If this structure continues, the market may still be in a phase of:
Bottoming + repeated confirmation
If BTC can eventually reclaim $80.5K and then break above $82K, the previous pattern of increasingly weak rebounds could begin to improve.
Therefore:
$80.5K is an important short-term recovery level to watch.
$79K answers:
“Is support holding?”
$80.5K answers:
“Can price recover the key area?”
Meanwhile, $82K and $84K are more important resistance zones for determining whether the market is actually regaining strength.
6. If $79K Breaks, Where Could BTC Go Next?
The real warning would be if $79K was not just briefly breached, but decisively lost.
What does a decisive break mean?
It does not necessarily mean that a quick wick to $78,900 automatically ends the trend.
What matters more is:
Break below $79K → weak rebound → failure to reclaim $79K → daily close remains below $79K.
If this structure develops, the buying interest around $79K may have been significantly absorbed.
The market would then need to search for the next potential support zones.
The key areas to watch could include:
Around $78,000
and:
Around $76,300
These levels do not mean BTC must reach them.
They are better viewed as potential areas that could become relevant if $79K fails.
Therefore:
$79K breaking does not mean BTC must fall to $76.3K.
It simply means:
The market may need to search for a new area where meaningful demand can emerge.
This is an important point in trading:
Do not treat a specific price target as an inevitable destination.
When market structure changes, the market continuously searches for a new equilibrium.
7. Why Should We Not Stay “Blindly Bullish”?
We have previously emphasized that the weekly structure has not completely broken down.
That observation still has some value.
But:
A weekly structure that has not completely broken does not mean we can stay blindly bullish in the short term.
These are two completely different concepts.
An asset can simultaneously have:
A long-term structure that has not been fully broken
and:
A short-term trend that is clearly weakening.
BTC currently looks closer to this situation.
If we only look at the weekly chart, we may conclude that the longer-term trend still has room to recover.
But on the daily and 4-hour charts:
- Price has fallen below short-term moving averages
- Rebound highs continue to decline
- Key price zones are becoming increasingly difficult to hold
Short-term traders therefore cannot ignore these changes.
This is one of the most common traps in trading:
Because a previous view was correct, we became unwilling to admit that the market has changed.
But the market does not have to keep rising simply because we were previously bullish.
8. The Biggest Trading Mistake Is Not Being Wrong — It Is Refusing to Admit That the Market Has Changed
One sentence from the original post is particularly worth highlighting:
“The biggest fear in trading is not being wrong, but refusing to admit when the market has changed.”
This connects directly with the logic of our previous article.
Previously, we discussed:
Do not rush to buy the dip simply because BTC fell toward $81,000.
Now that BTC has moved closer to $79K, the question becomes:
If the previous buying interest failed to create a genuine recovery structure, do we need to reassess the market?
This is what makes the market so difficult.
If you become too bearish:
BTC could suddenly rebound from a key support level.
If you become too bullish:
BTC could continue breaking through supposed “bottoms.”
A more mature way to think about the market is not:
“I think BTC must go up.”
Nor:
“I think BTC must go down.”
Instead:
“If A happens, how do I interpret it? If B happens, how should I adjust my view?”
For example:
$79K holds + BTC quickly reclaims $80.5K → The market may still have room to bottom and recover.
$79K breaks decisively + daily chart fails to reclaim it → Short-term structure weakens further, with $78K and $76.3K becoming important areas to watch.
This is much more useful than trying to predict the exact bottom in advance.
9.Three BTC Signals to Watch Next
If we want to determine whether BTC is forming a bottom or entering a deeper correction, three signals deserve close attention.
Can $79K Hold?
This is the most direct support test right now.
If BTC finds meaningful buying interest around $79K and quickly recovers $80K, the market could still continue to form a bottom.
But if repeated tests of $79K eventually lead to a breakdown, the market may need to search for another support zone.
Can BTC Reclaim $80.5K?
$79K answers:
“Is there support underneath?”
$80.5K answers:
“Does price have the ability to recover?”
If BTC falls toward $79K and quickly reclaims $80.5K, it would suggest that buyers still have some strength.
Conversely, if the rebound cannot even hold $80K, the market structure remains weak.
Can Rebound Highs Start Moving Higher?
This is one of the most important structural signals.
Previously:
$84K → $82K → $80K
If future rebounds continue to create lower highs, selling pressure remains dominant.
But if BTC can reclaim $82K and eventually challenge $84K again, the previous pattern of weakening rebounds may finally be broken.
So:
Do not only watch where BTC falls. Watch how far it can rebound.
KTX Crypto Insight: Whether $79K Holds Matters More Than Whether This Is “The Bottom”
On the KTX BTC/USDT Spot Trading Page, the key question has shifted from:
“Is $80K the bottom?”
to:
“Can the $79K support zone withstand another test?”
Several indicators can be monitored together:
BTC price structure → key support → rebound highs → trading volume → moving-average structure → OI → liquidation volume → sustainability of buying demand
Two price levels deserve particular attention:
$79K
and:
$80.5K
If $79K holds and BTC quickly reclaims $80.5K, the market could still continue forming a bottom.
If $79K is decisively broken and the daily chart fails to recover it, the short-term structure could weaken further, bringing potential support around $78K and even $76.3K into focus.
Users can check BTC's real-time price, 24-hour change, trading volume and order-book activity through the KTX BTC/USDT trading page.
To explore KTX's other spot, futures and trading products, visit the KTX official website.
Right now, the most important question may not be:
“How far will BTC fall?”
It is:
“After a key support level breaks, can the market quickly reclaim it?”
Because a healthy bottom does not only require buyers to appear.
It requires:
Buyers are strong enough to change the price structure.
FAQ
Does BTC falling toward $79,000 mean the trend has already reversed?
Not necessarily.
$79K is currently an important support area, but simply touching or briefly breaking below $79K does not prove that the long-term trend has reversed.
What matters more is whether BTC can quickly reclaim the level and whether the daily chart can recover above it.
Why are BTC rebounds becoming weaker?
The clearest sign is that BTC previously failed to break $84K, then struggled to hold $82K, and is now finding even $80K difficult to defend.
This suggests that short-term buying demand is losing its ability to push prices higher, while selling pressure above the market may be increasing.
If $79K holds, can BTC still move higher?
Yes, that remains possible.
If BTC finds meaningful support around $79K and quickly reclaims $80K and $80.5K, the market could continue bottoming and repairing its structure.
A further move above $82K and eventually $84K would provide a stronger signal that the short-term structure is improving.
If $79K breaks, will BTC definitely fall to $76.3K?
Not necessarily.
$78K and $76.3K are simply potential support areas worth monitoring if $79K fails.
They do not mean that BTC must reach those levels.
The market will ultimately search for a new equilibrium based on trading volume, buying demand and price structure.
Why can't we stay bullish just because the weekly structure is not completely broken?
Because different timeframes can produce different signals simultaneously.
A weekly structure that has not been completely broken only suggests that the longer-term trend still has room to recover.
However, the daily and 4-hour charts are already showing signs of weakness, so short-term market participants still need to respect the current price structure.
Conclusion
BTC's move toward $79,500 is no longer simply about:
“How much further has BTC fallen?”
The more important question is:
“Can $79K hold?”
In our previous article, we discussed whether there was genuine buying demand after BTC fell toward $81,000.
Now the market is taking that question one step further.
If the buying interest that appeared previously is strong enough, BTC should find meaningful demand around $79K and recover toward $80K or even $80.5K.
But if rebounds continue to weaken and $79K is eventually broken decisively, it could indicate that the previous buying demand was not strong enough to change the current market structure.
The most concerning pattern remains:
$84K fails → $82K fails to hold → $80K becomes increasingly difficult to defend.
That is the key issue right now.
A genuinely strong market does not necessarily need to make a new high every time.
But after a pullback, it should at least gradually establish higher lows and increasingly powerful rebounds.
The current situation is moving in the opposite direction:
Rebounds are getting weaker.
Therefore, the market can be viewed through two simple scenarios:
$79K holds + BTC quickly reclaims $80.5K → BTC may still have room to continue bottoming.
$79K breaks decisively + daily chart fails to reclaim it → Short-term structure deteriorates further, with $78K and potentially $76.3K becoming important areas to watch.
This is not a prediction that BTC must fall to a specific price.
It is about knowing what to monitor when the market structure changes.
Because the biggest mistake in trading is not:
“I was wrong.”
It is:
“The market changed, but I refused to admit it.”
For BTC, the most important thing right now may not be trying to guess the bottom.
It may be waiting for price action to tell us:
Is $79K becoming a new support level — or the next level to break?
Original Source
Original Author: 深深｜观势而行
Published: October 26, 2026
Original Post: https://x.com/Yxnh8023/status/2114550269535297893
BTC's situation is starting to look different. $79K is facing another major test. Yesterday, we were still discussing how $79K was the last important defense line for bulls, while $84K was the ticket to a renewed recovery. Today, BTC dropped directly toward $79,500. What concerns me most is not the few thousand dollars of downside, but the fact that recent rebounds have become weaker and weaker. BTC cannot break $84K, cannot hold $82K, and now even $80K is becoming difficult to defend. The daily chart has broken below the 10-day and 20-day moving averages, while the 4-hour moving averages are all pressing down from above. Honestly, I don't see a strong reversal structure yet. Now we need to watch $79K. If it holds and BTC quickly reclaims $80.5K, there is still a chance for further bottoming. If $79K is decisively broken, especially if the daily chart cannot recover it, I will turn my attention to $78K and even around $76.3K. I have repeatedly emphasized that the weekly structure has not completely broken, but that does not mean we should stay blindly bullish. The biggest fear in trading is not being wrong, but refusing to admit when the market has changed.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile. BTC prices can be affected by macroeconomic conditions, monetary policy, market liquidity, capital flows, market sentiment and investor behavior.
The discussion of market structure, technical indicators, support levels and potential price scenarios in this article is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment or trading advice.
The price levels mentioned in this article, including $79,000, $80,500, $78,000 and $76,300, are only reference points for market analysis. They do not represent predictions of future price movements and do not guarantee that these levels will act as effective support.
Historical market patterns, technical indicators and past price performance do not guarantee future results. Investors should make independent decisions based on their own risk tolerance and fully understand the risks associated with digital-asset trading.
When using futures or other leveraged products, users should fully understand margin requirements, funding rates, liquidation mechanisms and the potential for significant losses.