Summary
After Bitcoin's consecutive declines, is selling pressure finally beginning to ease? Recent on-chain cost-basis data shows that Short-Term Holder (STH) supply has remained relatively stable since early November. Meanwhile, BTC holdings acquired above $81,000 have declined by 16.5% over the past 14 days, although the pace of outflows has slowed significantly. At the same time, the share of STH supply held at a loss has climbed from 33% to 67%, suggesting that the market is gradually transitioning from large-scale coin distribution to a phase of existing supply absorption. However, easing selling pressure does not necessarily mean that BTC has reached its bottom. Whether holders around $77,000 continue to hold their positions and whether newly accumulated lower-cost supply remains stable will be important indicators of changing market sentiment.
Has Most of the Selling Already Happened?
Following Bitcoin's consecutive declines, one important question is emerging:
Have most of the investors willing to sell during this downturn already exited the market?
As prices continue to fall, different groups of investors tend to respond in different ways.
Some Long-Term Holders (LTHs) may choose to take profits or reduce exposure during the early stages of a decline. Short-Term Holders (STHs) who buy at higher prices may begin realizing losses as their unrealized losses increase. Meanwhile, some early investors with lower cost bases may decide to lock in profits amid market volatility.
However, these coins do not simply disappear. They are redistributed among different market participants.
Therefore, assessing whether selling pressure is weakening requires more than simply looking at how far BTC has fallen. It is also important to examine the amount of BTC held across different cost-basis ranges and how those holdings change throughout a downturn.
Recent data tracking entity-adjusted STH cost-basis distribution since October 28 provides a useful perspective.
Several developments stand out:
- External supply from Long-Term Holders has declined significantly since early November.
- BTC holdings acquired above $81,000 continue to decrease, but the pace of outflows has slowed.
- Lower-cost holdings in the $58,000–$72,000 range have maintained a relatively consistent outflow pattern.
- BTC has fallen below the average STH cost basis, with the proportion of STH supply held at a loss rising from 33% to 67%.
Together, these developments suggest that the market may be transitioning from large-scale coin redistribution toward a phase of existing supply absorption.
But does this mean the latest wave of panic selling is nearing its end? A closer look at the data is necessary.
Reduced Distribution From Long-Term Holders: The Market Is Moving Toward Internal STH Redistribution
The first development worth examining is the change in total STH supply.
Since October 28, the total amount of BTC held by Short-Term Holders has increased by approximately 93,000 BTC.
This suggests that some coins previously held by Long-Term Holders may have been transferred to new buyers during the first stage of the market decline.
However, the timing of this increase is more important than the overall figure.
The data shows:
- Approximately 78,000 BTC of the increase in STH supply occurred before November 2.
- Since November 5,the total STH supply has remained largely unchanged.
- The pace of coin transfers from Long-Term Holders to Short-Term Holders has slowed considerably.
This suggests that the first phase of the market correction was accompanied by significant distribution from LTHs to new buyers.
As November progressed, external supply began to decline, while market activity increasingly shifted toward redistribution among existing Short-Term Holders.
In simple terms, the earlier phase involved Long-Term Holders selling coins to new buyers, while the later phase has been characterized more by trading and redistribution among Short-Term Holders.
These two situations reflect different market conditions.
When Long-Term Holders continue releasing substantial amounts of BTC into the market, there is still a considerable amount of external supply that needs to be absorbed.
As this supply gradually decreases, future selling pressure becomes increasingly dependent on the behavior of existing holders.
Of course, stable STH supply does not prove that the market has completed its distribution phase. However, it does indicate that the underlying supply structure is changing.
Holdings Above $81,000 Are Declining, but Selling Pressure Is Slowing
The second important development concerns the behavior of investors who purchased BTC at higher prices.
According to the cost-basis distribution data, BTC holdings with acquisition costs above $81,000 have declined by approximately 16.5% over the past 14 days.
Viewed in isolation, this figure indicates substantial outflows from higher-cost holders.
However, examining the daily changes reveals a more important signal:
The pace of outflows from higher-cost holdings is slowing.
The breakdown is as follows:
- During the first seven days, approximately 88,000 BTC left this cost-basis range.
- During the following six days, the outflow totaled approximately 39,000 BTC.
- From November 7 to November 9, daily outflows remained below 4,000 BTC.
One particularly noteworthy detail is that BTC reached a new local low on November 8, yet higher-cost holdings did not experience a corresponding surge in outflows.
What does this indicate?
During the early stages of a market decline, investors who purchase at higher prices often face significant unrealized losses. When prices remain below their cost basis, some may choose to sell to prevent further losses.
However, as some of these investors gradually exit their positions, the behavior of remaining holders may begin to change.
Some have already realized their losses, others have decided to continue holding, while some may simply be reducing their trading activity and waiting for the market to stabilize.
As a result, even if BTC continues to decline, higher-cost holdings may not necessarily continue flowing out at the same pace.
This is why monitoring changes in the marginal rate of coin outflows can be more informative than looking only at cumulative reductions.
If BTC declines again, but holdings above $81,000 do not experience another significant acceleration in outflows, concentrated selling pressure from higher-cost buyers may be easing further.
However, slower outflows do not mean that all high-cost investors have completed their selling. Further price declines could still trigger additional selling activity.
Lower-Cost Holdings Continue to Decline: Profit-Taking and Holding Period Changes Matter
Unlike higher-cost holdings, BTC supply in the $58,000–$72,000 cost-basis range has demonstrated a different pattern.
This group has maintained a relatively consistent outflow pace in recent weeks.
According to the data, approximately 4,000–11,000 BTC leave this range each day. The difference between outflows on market rebound days and decline days has not been particularly significant.
Only during the most recent two days has the pace of outflows accelerated slightly.
This behavior differs from the concentrated decline in higher-cost holdings during the early stages of the downturn.
Investors with lower cost bases generally have a larger profit cushion. When the market corrects, they are not necessarily forced to exit simply because prices decline in the short term.
Instead, several factors may explain their changing positions.
First, some early investors may be making profits.
For investors who accumulated BTC at lower prices, the current market price may still be significantly above their original acquisition cost, even after a substantial correction.
When market uncertainty increases, choosing to realize profits can be a normal part of portfolio management.
Second, some coins may be transitioning into Long-Term Holder supply.
Under commonly used on-chain classification methods, BTC held for approximately 155 days or longer may be reclassified from Short-Term Holder supply to Long-Term Holder supply.
Therefore, a decline in STH holdings does not necessarily mean that all those coins have been sold.
Some reductions may result from actual transactions and transfers, while others may be related to holding-period changes and adjustments in holder classification.
This distinction is important when interpreting on-chain data: not every reduction in coin supply should automatically be treated as market selling.
If lower-cost holdings continue to decline at a relatively stable pace while concentrated selling from higher-cost holders weakens, the overall market supply structure may gradually become more stable.
STH Supply Held at a Loss Rises to 67%: Why the $77,000 Cost-Basis Zone Matters
While the previous indicators primarily reflect changes on the supply side, the proportion of STH supply held at a loss provides additional insight into the psychological pressure facing current investors.
As BTC continues to decline, its market price has fallen below the average cost basis of Short-Term Holders.
The data shows:
- The proportion of STH supply held at a loss has increased from 33% to 67%.
- Approximately two-thirds of Short-Term Holder supply is now underwater.
- A significant concentration of recently accumulated BTC has formed around the $77,000 cost-basis range.
The holdings around $77,000 deserve particular attention.
According to the original data, BTC supply in this range peaked at approximately 260,000 BTC on November 3. Currently, around 235,000 BTC remain in this range.
In other words, approximately 90% of the coins have not shown significant outflows.
These holdings are currently facing unrealized losses of approximately 4%–6%.
Why is this price range so important?
The holdings, around $77,000, represent a group of relatively recent buyers who entered the market during the latest downturn.
At the time, these investors may have considered BTC's price attractive enough to begin accumulating during the correction.
However, as prices continued falling, some of these positions shifted from unrealized profits or near breakeven into unrealized losses.
Their next moves could become an important variable affecting short-term market supply.
If BTC continues declining but these investors choose to hold, the market may gradually absorb underwater supply over time.
However, if prices fall further and more investors lose patience and begin selling, the $77,000 cost-basis range could become another source of selling pressure.
Therefore, two developments deserve close attention:
- Whether BTC holdings around $77,000 remain stable or begin declining significantly.
- Whether the proportion of STH supply held at a loss continues increasing during another BTC decline, particularly if accompanied by larger coin outflows.
At present, this is one of the most concentrated individual cost-basis ranges in the market. The behavior of its holders could have a meaningful influence on the next stage of supply and demand.
Does Easing Selling Pressure Mean BTC Has Bottomed? What Should Investors Watch Next?
Based on the data above, recent changes in Bitcoin's supply structure can be divided into two stages.
Stage 1: Distribution From Long-Term Holders to Short-Term Holders
From late October through early November, STH supply increased significantly, indicating substantial coin redistribution. Some Long-Term Holders distributed their holdings, while new buyers absorbed the available supply.
Stage 2: Internal Redistribution Among Short-Term Holders
Since November, total STH supply has remained relatively stable, suggesting that external supply has declined. Although higher-cost holdings continue to decrease, the pace has slowed considerably, and the market is increasingly focused on absorbing existing supply.
Based on current data, there are signs that marginal selling pressure is weakening.
However, two concepts must be clearly distinguished:
Easing selling pressure does not mean buying demand is increasing.
Even if fewer investors are willing to sell, BTC prices may remain under pressure if there is insufficient new capital entering the market to absorb available supply.
Therefore, three developments deserve particular attention:
- Whether outflows from higher-cost holdings continue to slow
If outflows from holdings above $81,000 continue weakening, it may indicate that the concentrated selling pressure from previous stop-loss activity is gradually being absorbed.
- Whether the accumulation of around $77,000 remains stable
This group of holdings is still relatively concentrated. If BTC declines again but the amount of supply in this range remains largely unchanged, it may indicate that recent buyers have relatively strong holding convictions.
- Whether new buyers begin absorbing available market supply
This is an essential condition for determining whether the market can establish a more stable price foundation. A reduction in selling pressure is only one side of the equation. Sustainable demand is also necessary.
Therefore, investors should not focus exclusively on whether BTC makes another new law. It is equally important to observe whether further price declines trigger another wave of concentrated on-chain outflows.
If prices continue falling without triggering significantly larger-scale coin distribution, the current wave of panic selling may be approaching its final stages.
However, if higher-cost holdings begin declining rapidly again, or if positions around $77,000 start showing substantial outflows, the market could still face another round of selling pressure.
KTX Crypto Insights: What Matters More Than How Far BTC Has Fallen Is Who Is Still Selling
For investors following the BTC market, the most important question after consecutive declines may no longer be simply where the price is heading, but what holders across different cost-basis ranges are actually doing.
Recent STH supply distribution data reveals several important developments:
Distribution from Long-Term Holders to Short-Term Holders has declined. Concentrated selling from higher-cost buyers is slowing. Lower-cost holdings maintain a relatively consistent outflow pattern. Meanwhile, the proportion of STH supply held at a loss has increased significantly.
Together, these indicators suggest that the market may be transitioning from large-scale coin redistribution toward a phase of existing supply absorption.
However, determining whether the market has truly entered a bottoming phase requires a broader assessment of price action, trading volume, capital flows, and derivatives market activity.
Investors can monitor BTC's live price and trading activity through the KTX BTC/USDT Spot Trading Page. They can also visit the KTX Crypto Market Page to review the performance of major cryptocurrencies.
For additional information about the platform and its supported cryptocurrency markets, visit the KTX Official English Website.
For long-term Bitcoin investors, the real priority is not to predict the bottom every time prices decline, but to understand how the market's supply and demand structure is changing.
When sellers begin to disappear, the market may be getting closer to the end of its sentiment-driven sell-off.
But only when new buyers consistently absorb available supply can prices establish a more sustainable foundation.
A market bottom is not determined solely by fewer people willing to sell. It also requires buyers willing to accumulate at the new price levels.
FAQ
Why should investors monitor on-chain supply distribution during consecutive BTC declines?
Price movements reflect the outcome of market transactions, while on-chain supply distribution helps investors examine the behavior of holders across different cost-basis ranges. By comparing changes in coin holdings, investors can gain additional insight into market supply, acquisition costs, and sentiment.
What do STH and LTH mean?
STH stands for Short-Term Holders, while LTH stands for Long-Term Holders. Common on-chain classification methods use approximately 155 days as a reference holding-period threshold, although the exact methodology may vary across data providers.
Does a 16.5% decline in high-cost holdings mean selling pressure is over?
No. A decline in holdings within a particular cost-basis range indicates that the amount of supply in that range has decreased. However, this may involve actual selling, coin transfers, and changes in holder classification. The recent slowdown in outflows suggests that marginal selling pressure may be easing, but it does not confirm that selling has ended.
Why are BTC holdings around $77,000 worth monitoring?
This price range represents a relatively concentrated group of recently accumulated short-term holdings. According to the original data, approximately 235,000 BTC remain in this range. If prices decline further, whether these holders choose to exit could influence future market supply.
Is having 67% of STH supply underwater a signal that BTC has bottomed?
Not by itself. A higher proportion of underwater STH supply indicates increasing price pressure on short-term investors, but it does not mean they will necessarily sell. Actual coin outflows, trading volume, and market demand must also be considered.
Will BTC rebound once selling pressure begins to ease?
Not necessarily. Reduced selling pressure is a positive development on the supply side, but without sufficient buying demand, prices may continue to decline or move sideways. A more sustainable recovery requires improvements in both supply and demand.
What should investors monitor to assess BTC's next move?
Investors can monitor the average STH cost basis, changes in coin distribution across different cost-basis ranges, trading volume, spot capital flows, and derivatives indicators such as open interest and funding rates. Market direction should not be determined by a single on-chain indicator.
Conclusion: A Market Bottom May Begin With the Gradual Exhaustion of Selling Pressure
Following Bitcoin's consecutive declines, several important changes are emerging in the market.
From reduced distribution by Long-Term Holders to slowing outflows from higher-cost holdings and a rising proportion of STH supply held at a loss, the data suggests that Bitcoin's supply structure is undergoing another round of adjustment.
However, it remains uncertain whether these developments indicate that the current downturn is approaching its end.
Whether the accumulation of around $77,000 remains stable, whether higher-cost holders continue reducing their selling activity, and whether new capital enters the market to absorb available supply will all be important variables to watch.
Investors should avoid declaring a market bottom based on a single slowdown in selling pressure. At the same time, continued price declines should not distract them from meaningful changes in on-chain supply dynamics.
Price tells us how far the market has fallen. Coin distribution helps us understand how many holders may still be willing to sell.
Before the market establishes a more sustainable foundation, maintaining patience, managing exposure, and monitoring changes in supply and demand may be more valuable than rushing to predict the next rebound.
Original Source
BTC连续下跌之后，市场的抛压结构正在发生变化。
从10月28日以来的STH筹码成本分布来看，短期持有者总量增加约9.3万枚BTC，但其中约7.8万枚发生在11月2日之前。11月5日之后，STH总量基本持平，说明长期持有者向短期持有者转移筹码的速度已经放缓。
与此同时，81,000美元以上的筹码在14天内减少16.5%，但后6天的流出量明显低于前7天。即使11月8日BTC价格创出新低，高位筹码也没有出现同等规模的流出。
58,000至72,000美元的低成本筹码则保持相对稳定的流出节奏，可能同时包含获利了结和持有周期变化带来的影响。
目前，BTC价格已经跌破STH平均成本，浮亏筹码占比从33%升至67%。其中，77,000美元附近仍有约23.5万枚BTC持仓，约九成筹码尚未明显流出。
综合来看，市场可能正在从前期的大规模筹码转移，逐步进入存量筹码消化阶段，边际卖压有所减弱。
但卖压减弱并不意味着价格会立即反转。接下来，77,000美元附近的持仓能否稳定，以及价格再次下探时是否会引发更大规模的筹码出清，将成为判断市场情绪是否接近尾声的重要线索。
Original Author: Murphy
Original Publication Date: November 12, 2026
Original Source: https://x.com/Murphychen888/status/2120698098989351325
Risk Disclaimer
Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile. BTC prices may be affected by various factors, including macroeconomic conditions, monetary policy, market liquidity, institutional capital flows, regulatory developments, and investor sentiment. On-chain coin distribution is an analytical tool and should not be used independently to predict price movements. Changes in coin holdings may also be affected by address consolidation, holding-period classifications, and differences in data-provider methodologies.
This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Investors should conduct independent research and make decisions based on their individual financial circumstances and risk tolerance.