Summary
After prioritizing Bitcoin (BTC) for most of this market cycle, well-known crypto analyst Murphy has finally started buying Ethereum (ETH). For the first time this cycle, he has outlined a specific ETH accumulation strategy, placing three buy orders at $2,400, $2,300, and $2,200. The strategy uses staggered limit orders, with a planned average entry price of approximately $2,260.
This purchase was not simply a reaction to a short-term price decline or a general belief in Ethereum's long-term value. Instead, it followed a strengthening signal in the ETH/BTC exchange rate, alongside his ongoing analysis of Ethereum's holder distribution, whale cost basis, and market cycle.
After repeatedly analyzing ETH's market behavior without holding any positions, Murphy has now entered the market himself. His decision raises an important question: when market signals change and capital allocation shifts, how should investors develop their own entry strategies?
From Buying Only BTC to Buying ETH for the First Time: What Has Changed?
For investors who follow the crypto market closely, the allocation between Bitcoin and Ethereum has always been an important topic.
BTC is generally viewed as the core asset of the crypto market, while ETH has its own ecosystem, use cases, and market-cycle characteristics. Although both assets are often influenced by the same macroeconomic conditions, their relative performance can vary significantly across different market phases.
This time, analyst Murphy publicly confirmed that he had made his first ETH purchase of the current cycle.
His planned trading strategy is straightforward:
- First order: $2,400
- Second order: $2,300
- Third order: $2,200
- Strategy: Three staggered limit orders
- Planned average entry price: Approximately $2,260
Unlike investing the entire amount at once, staggered orders allow investors to build positions across different price levels while maintaining some flexibility to respond to further market volatility.
Interestingly, Murphy had been following Ethereum long before this purchase.
He had previously analyzed ETH through several perspectives, including its investor community, token distribution, and whale cost basis. He also shared his views on Ethereum's potential market movements on multiple occasions.
Yet even when ETH was trading around $1,800, he chose not to buy.
The reason was simple: almost all of his available capital had already been allocated to BTC.
This highlights an important distinction: believing in an asset does not necessarily mean buying it immediately. Actual trading decisions are also influenced by capital allocation, existing positions, and opportunity costs.
Why Could a Stronger ETH/BTC Exchange Rate Be an Important Signal?
The most interesting part of this latest purchase is not ETH's USD price, but the change in the ETH/BTC exchange rate.
ETH/BTC measures the value of Ethereum relative to Bitcoin. It helps investors understand whether ETH is outperforming or underperforming BTC.
For example, if ETH rises in USD terms but BTC rises even faster, the ETH/BTC exchange rate may still decline.
Conversely, even if ETH's USD price does not increase significantly, sustained strength against BTC could indicate a shift in the market's relative valuation of Ethereum.
For investors who follow both assets, ETH/BTC therefore offers a different perspective from simply tracking their USD prices.
In a post published on October 20, Murphy pointed out that ETH/BTC was showing clear signs of strengthening. He described the market structure with an interesting phrase:
"It looks like '3' is getting closer."
Although this observation does not guarantee that ETH will immediately begin another major rally, it reflects his attention to changes in relative market strength.
If ETH/BTC continues to strengthen, it could suggest that Ethereum is attracting stronger relative demand compared with Bitcoin.
However, if the exchange rate only experiences a short-term rebound before weakening again, the move may simply represent temporary market volatility.
Therefore, determining whether ETH has entered a sustained period of relative strength requires more than observing a single day's price movement. Investors should also monitor whether the exchange rate can maintain important breakout levels and find support during pullbacks.
Why Did Murphy Choose Three Buy Orders Instead of Entering All at Once?
Murphy's latest strategy involves three staggered limit orders.
The planned entry levels range from $2,400 to $2,200, with an estimated average cost of approximately $2,260.
The core idea is not to predict the exact market bottom, but to establish a position across predefined price levels.
This approach has three main characteristics.
First, it reduces dependence on a single entry price.
If an investor purchases ETH entirely at $2,400 and the price subsequently falls to $2,200, the position may experience significant short-term unrealized losses.
Staggered buying allows capital to be deployed at different price levels rather than concentrating the entire position at one entry point.
Second, it leaves room for market volatility.
The cryptocurrency market frequently experiences sharp corrections and short-term rebounds.
Setting multiple buy levels in advance can help investors avoid impulsive decisions driven by sudden price movements and make their trading plans more structured.
Third, it helps investors monitor their average entry cost.
However, staggered buying does not guarantee a lower average cost. If the market never reaches the planned order levels, the actual number of executed orders and average entry price may differ from the original plan.
Investors should therefore consider position sizing, remaining capital, and maximum acceptable losses rather than focusing exclusively on the average purchase price.
It is also important to remember that staggered buying does not eliminate market risk. If prices continue falling below the planned entry range, investors may still face additional losses.
From Repeatedly Making Accurate Predictions to Actually Buying ETH: How Can Holding a Position Change an Analyst's Perspective?
Murphy also shared an interesting observation in his original post.
He suggested that there may be two reasons why his historical ETH predictions had been relatively accurate:
- He discussed ETH less frequently. With fewer predictions, the sample size was also smaller.
- He previously held no ETH positions, which may have allowed him to analyze the market more objectively without being influenced by personal investment interests.
This touches on an important issue in investing: cognitive bias.
When investors hold no position, they may find it easier to evaluate market conditions based on price movements, capital flows, and market structure.
However, once they enter the market, their psychological responses can change.
For example:
- When prices rise, investors may become more inclined to look for reasons supporting further gains.
- When prices fall, they may selectively ignore unfavorable signals.
- Previously objective market analysis may gradually become influenced by personal profit and loss.
- It may become more difficult to adjust expectations when the market moves against their original assumptions.
This is one reason why experienced traders often establish a trading plan before entering a position.
Defining entry conditions, position size, and risk management rules in advance can help reduce emotional interference after entering the market.
Murphy's decision to publicly disclose his planned entry levels also highlights the difference between observing the market and actively participating in it.
Nevertheless, past prediction accuracy does not guarantee future performance. Even a strategy that has worked repeatedly must continue to be tested against new market data.
Looking at Murphy's Previous ETH Calls: Understanding Market-Cycle Entry Strategies
In his original post, Murphy also revisited several important ETH market calls from the past.
Last December, when Li Yilihua publicly expressed a bullish view on ETH, Murphy believed it was not yet the right time to accumulate because several conditions in his analytical framework had not been satisfied.
By February this year, when market conditions had changed, he believed the market might instead be entering a period suitable for staggered accumulation.
In August, he once again analyzed Ethereum through its investor community, token distribution, and whale cost basis, outlining the conditions he believed could support an entry.
These examples reflect an important trading principle:
Market decisions should not be based solely on whether a particular person is bullish or bearish. Price action, capital flows, and token distribution should also be considered.
For an asset like ETH, market performance is influenced not only by BTC, but also by ecosystem development, capital rotation, institutional participation, and overall investor sentiment.
Investors can therefore monitor several key factors when evaluating potential opportunities in ETH.
ETH/BTC Relative Strength
Monitor whether ETH continues to outperform BTC and whether the exchange rate can maintain important support levels during pullbacks.
Token Distribution and Whale Cost Basis
Observe the cost basis of large holders, changes in their positions, and potential selling pressure. However, on-chain addresses do not necessarily represent individual investors, so these metrics should be interpreted alongside other market data.
Trading Volume and Market Liquidity
Check whether ETH's upward movements are supported by increasing trading volume and whether buyers continue to absorb selling pressure during corrections.
The Overall BTC Market Environment
ETH does not operate independently. Bitcoin's direction, overall market risk appetite, and changes in liquidity can all influence Ethereum's performance.
Combining these factors can provide a more comprehensive understanding of ETH's current market position.
KTX Crypto Insights: Monitor ETH/BTC Alongside Spot and Futures Market Activity
For investors following Ethereum, monitoring the ETH/USD price alone may not be sufficient.
When capital rotates between BTC and ETH, the ETH/BTC exchange rate can provide additional insight into their relative market performance.
Through the KTX ETH/USDT Spot Trading Page, users can monitor ETH's real-time price, 24-hour price changes, trading volume, and other market movements.
Those who want to explore additional market opportunities and trading services can also visit the KTX Official Website.
When analyzing ETH, investors may want to monitor the following indicators:
ETH/USDT price movements → ETH/BTC exchange rate → Spot trading volume → Order book activity → Futures open interest → Funding rates → Liquidation volume.
The ETH/BTC exchange rate helps assess Ethereum's relative strength against Bitcoin, while spot trading volume and order book activity can provide additional information about market participation.
Futures traders should also pay close attention to leverage-related risks. Even if their market direction is correct, excessive leverage can result in premature liquidation during short-term volatility.
The most interesting aspect of Murphy's trading plan is not simply the prices at which he intends to buy ETH. It is the fact that he established a staggered entry strategy after observing specific market signals.
A mature trading strategy should not rely solely on predicting price direction. It should also account for capital allocation, entry methods, and risk management.
FAQ
What is the ETH/BTC exchange rate?
ETH/BTC is the exchange rate of Ethereum against Bitcoin. It represents how much BTC is required to purchase one ETH. A rising ETH/BTC rate indicates that ETH is gaining strength relative to BTC, while a falling rate suggests relative weakness.
Why is a strengthening ETH/BTC rate worth watching?
ETH and BTC can both rise or fall in USD terms while showing different relative performance. A sustained increase in ETH/BTC may indicate growing relative demand for Ethereum compared with Bitcoin.
What is staggered buying?
Staggered buying is a strategy in which investors divide their planned capital into multiple portions and purchase an asset at different price levels instead of entering the market all at once. It can diversify entry prices but does not guarantee profits.
Is using staggered limit orders suitable for every investor?
Not necessarily. Staggered orders should be planned according to available capital, risk tolerance, and market volatility. If prices continue falling, all orders may be executed, increasing the overall position size. Investors should establish maximum position limits in advance.
Does a rising ETH price mean Ethereum will outperform Bitcoin?
Not necessarily. A rising ETH price only indicates that its USD value has increased. To determine whether ETH is outperforming BTC, investors should monitor the ETH/BTC exchange rate. If ETH rises less than BTC, it may still be underperforming on a relative basis.
Conclusion
After focusing primarily on Bitcoin for most of this market cycle, Murphy's first ETH purchase offers an interesting case study in crypto market analysis and trading strategy.
His three planned orders at $2,400, $2,300, and $2,200, with an estimated average entry price of approximately $2,260, highlight the importance of structured accumulation.
However, the most important takeaway is not simply that an analyst has started buying ETH. It is the reasoning behind the decision:
Can ETH/BTC maintain its upward momentum? Is the token distribution structure improving? Can buying demand remain consistent? Does the broader BTC market environment support capital rotation into Ethereum?
For ordinary investors, understanding the conditions behind a trading strategy is more valuable than simply copying someone else's entry prices.
After all, another investor's cost basis is not your cost basis, and their trading plan may not match your financial situation.
The market will not automatically begin a rally simply because a particular analyst has entered a position.
What really matters is whether you have a trading plan that can be executed, evaluated, and adjusted while keeping risk under control when market signals appear.
Original Post
This is my first ETH purchase of the current market cycle.
$2,400 / $2,300 / $2,200 — three separate buy orders using a staggered accumulation strategy, with a planned average cost of $2,260.
Although I have made several accurate calls on Ethereum's overall market conditions in the past, I never actually bought ETH because almost all of my capital had already been allocated to BTC.
This time, I decided to enter after observing clear signs of strengthening in the ETH/BTC exchange rate.
I have always believed that my data analysis should serve my actual trading decisions rather than simply express market opinions.
When I held no ETH, I may have been able to analyze the market more objectively. Now that I have actually entered a position, my future views may also be influenced by my own investment interests.
So instead of focusing on whether someone else is buying, it is more important to understand the reasoning behind each trading decision.
To all the Ethereum believers: I'm finally here!
Original Author: Murphy | Crypto Market Analyst
X Account: @Murphychen888
Original Source: https://x.com/Murphychen888/status/2118178775531946312
Risk Disclaimer
Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile. ETH prices may be affected by BTC price movements, macroeconomic conditions, market liquidity, on-chain capital flows, investor sentiment, and developments within the Ethereum ecosystem.
A strengthening ETH/BTC exchange rate does not guarantee that ETH will rise in price or outperform BTC in the future. Staggered buying and pyramid-style limit orders also involve market risks. Investors should make independent decisions based on their financial circumstances and individual risk tolerance.
This article is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Before using futures or other leveraged products, investors should fully understand margin requirements, funding rates, and liquidation risks.