Summary: Oil prices repeatedly pushing above $100 are keeping risk assets under short-term pressure, but BTC and ETH are beginning to show a different pattern from U.S. equities. If the crypto market ultimately confirms that it can hold up without following stocks lower, this pullback may be transitioning from a simple downtrend into a bottoming range. The sharp move lower during the weekend, when liquidity was relatively thin, is particularly worth examining through the lens of liquidation cascades and price discovery. Rather than trying to guess the exact bottom, the more important question is whether the weekend low can hold and whether BTC and ETH can continue to show relative strength.
BTC has become frustrating again over the past few days.
Yesterday, people regretted not buying the rebound.
Today, they are relieved they didn't chase it.
That's what a range-bound market does.
When prices rise, traders worry about missing out. When prices fall, they worry about getting trapped.
The hardest part is often not the price itself, but not knowing what to believe next.
And right now, one of the biggest variables for the market remains oil.
When oil prices repeatedly push above $100, risk assets can hardly ignore macro pressure.
U.S. Stocks come under pressure, and market sentiment follows.
But there is one change worth paying attention to this time:
BTC and ETH seem increasingly unwilling to follow U.S. equities lower.
That could simply be short-term relative strength.
Or it could mean something more important is beginning to change.
If BTC ultimately confirms that it can hold up while U.S. stocks decline. This pullback may no longer be just another leg lower.
It could be gradually turning into a new bottoming range.
And one thing deserves particular attention:
that sharp weekend wick lower.
If that law is never broken again, the move may not have been a sign of market instability.
It could instead become one of the most important price-discovery events of this correction.
Why Is It So Difficult for Risk Assets to Rally Independently When Oil Is Above $100?
The short-term market outlook is still heavily tied to oil prices.
When oil repeatedly moves back above $100, the concern isn't simply the price of energy itself.
The bigger issue is what higher oil prices could mean for inflation expectations and global liquidity.
For risk assets such as stocks and cryptocurrencies, that creates an obvious problem:
When macro pressure rises, it becomes difficult for risk assets to completely ignore the broader environment and rally independently.
That's why the recent market action has felt so familiar.
Yesterday, people regretted missing the rebound.
Today, after another pullback, they are relieved they didn't chase the move higher.
It looks like the market has no direction.
But underneath volatility, the market is constantly testing one thing:
Is there enough capital willing to step in at these levels?
This connects directly with the logic discussed in the previous article.
The previous article focused on BTC falling from around $86,000 to $81,000 and why rising trading volume did not necessarily mean that genuine new capital had returned.
Now there is another question to consider:
With external risks still present, is BTC beginning to show a degree of independence from traditional risk assets?
If the answer increasingly becomes yes, the market structure could be changing.
What Would It Mean If BTC Stops Following U.S. Stocks Lower?
For much of the recent period, BTC and U.S. Equities have shown a clear correlation.
When stocks rise, BTC tends to rise with them.
When stocks fall, BTC can also come under pressure.
But if BTC begins showing greater resilience while U.S. Equities are under pressure. The market may need to be viewed from a different angle.
Because not falling with the market is itself a form of relative strength.
Of course, this does not mean BTC has already confirmed a trend reversal.
But it could indicate that:
selling pressure is no longer as strong as it was before.
ETH is also worth watching closely.
If both BTC and ETH can maintain relative strength while U.S. equities are correcting, then once external pressure eases, capital could return to crypto more quickly.
ETH is particularly interesting.
If the market shifts from a phase where “all risk assets are falling” to one where “risk assets begin to diverge,” assets with greater rebound sensitivity could potentially outperform.
So the key question now isn't simply whether BTC can go up.
It's whether:
BTC can avoid following stocks lower.
ETH can outperform BTC.
The crypto market can begin moving according to its own internal rhythm.
If all three signals appear together, the potential for a stronger November market could reopen.
The Weekend Wick May Not Have Been Simply a Manipulative Sell-Off
There is another detail in this market that deserves a closer look:
The sharp move lower early Sunday morning.
When traders see a move like this, the first reaction is often:
“Someone dumped it.”
“They liquidated longs first and then pushed the market back up.”
That interpretation fits the emotional side of trading.
But if we remove the emotional narrative and look at the market microstructure, the underlying process may be much simpler.
Weekend liquidity is typically thinner than during major trading sessions.
When concentrated sell orders enter a relatively thin order book, prices can move sharply lower.
That decline can then trigger forced liquidations among leveraged long positions.
Those liquidations create additional sell orders.
This can produce a very typical chain reaction:
Large sales orders enter a thin order book
↓
Price drops sharply
↓
Some leveraged long positions are liquidated
↓
Liquidation selling pushes the price even lower
↓
Selling pressure gradually fades
↓
Price rebounds quickly
What appears on the chart is a very obvious wick.
But the most important question isn't how extreme the wick looks.
It's:
Does the market break that low again?
Why Is a Low Formed During Thin Liquidity Worth Watching?
Price discovery does not necessarily happen during the most stable market conditions.
In fact, when liquidity is thin, prices can move quickly toward levels where actual buyers and sellers are willing to transact.
Weekends are a particularly interesting environment for this.
If a large amount of selling suddenly enters the market, prices can briefly move to an extreme level.
But if that price is not accepted by the broader market, and the selling pressure fades before the price quickly recovers, that extreme law can become an important reference point.
That's why:
whether the law holds after a sharp move matters more than how long the wick itself was.
Let's call the weekend low X.
If BTC repeatedly retests X but fails to break below it decisively, while buyers continue to appear around that level, X could gradually become an important support zone.
On the other hand, if BTC breaks below X again and fails to quickly recover, the previous price-discovery event may have failed.
The market would then need to search for another bottom.
So the most important question right now is actually very simple:
Can the weekend low hold?
This Could Be a Bottoming Range, Not an Immediate Trend Reversal
There is one important distinction to make here.
Holding the weekend low does not mean that BTC will immediately enter a new uptrend.
The market could easily go through a sequence like this:
Sharp sell-off
→ Oversold rebound
→ Second test of the lows
→ Sideways consolidation
→ Another retest
→ Breakout in either direction
So the rebound yesterday followed by another pullback today is not necessarily surprising.
From a market-structure perspective, a second test can actually be quite normal.
After the first sharp decline, the market needs to determine whether there is genuine demand at lower levels.
If BTC pulls back again after the first rebound but does not break the previous low, a bottoming range could gradually begin to form.
For example:
First low → rebound
Second retest → no new low
Third test → buyers continue to step in
Then → breakout from the range
That would represent a healthier market structure than a simple one-off oversold bounce.
So instead of immediately asking:
“Has the bull market started?”
It may be more useful to ask:
“Is a bottoming range beginning to form?”
If the Weekend Low Holds, Late October Could Become a “Buy-the-Dip Watch Zone”
If BTC does not break below the weekend wick low, this correction could gradually shift from a directional downtrend toward a range-bound market.
There are also several macro variables worth watching.
One is next week's FOMC meeting.
If the expected policy path does not become more restrictive, some of the pressure on risk assets could temporarily ease.
Another factor is liquidity conditions heading into November.
If U.S. Treasury-related liquidity conditions improve, expectations for broader market liquidity could also change, potentially providing additional support for risk assets.
Of course, none of this automatically means BTC will rise.
What matters is whether:
Macro pressure continues to worsen.
Capital begins returning.
BTC maintains relative strength.
And the bottoming structure remains intact.
If these conditions gradually move in a more favorable direction, late October could become an important period to watch.
Why Could ETH Have More Upside Than BTC?
If this market ultimately confirms a bottoming range rather than another sustained leg lower, ETH may deserve additional attention.
The reason is relatively straightforward.
BTC is usually the first major asset investors watch when assessing overall crypto risk appetite.
When the market moves from extreme risk aversion toward renewed risk-taking, capital can potentially rotate from BTC into ETH and other higher-beta assets.
For example, if we begin to see:
BTC stops following U.S. stocks lower
→ BTC stabilizes
→ ETH strengthens against BTC
→ Overall crypto trading volume recovers
→ Risk appetite improves
Then ETH could potentially deliver a larger rebound than BTC.
But there is an important condition:
The bottom needs to be confirmed first.
Otherwise, higher beta simply means higher volatility.
So the key question isn't:
“Will ETH outperform BTC?”
It's:
“Is ETH/BTC relative strength beginning to change on a sustained basis?”
KTX Crypto Insights: Don't Rush to Call the Bottom — Watch Whether This Low Holds
For the KTX BTC/USDT Spot Trading page, the most important thing to watch right now is not a simple price prediction.
Instead, traders can monitor whether several signals begin appearing together:
Weekend low → Does it hold?
BTC → Does it continue to outperform U.S. equities on the downside?
ETH → Does it begin showing relative strength?
Trading volume → Does it recover?
Pullbacks → Is there consistent demand?
Price structure → Are higher lows forming?
This follows directly from the logic discussed in the previous article.
The previous article argued:
“Higher trading volume does not necessarily mean genuine buyers have returned.”
Now we can take that one step further.
If the market is under external pressure but still becomes increasingly unwilling to move lower, then genuine demand may gradually stick around.
The weekend wick is particularly important here.
If that law continues to hold, it could become an important reference point for the current trading range.
Of course, that does not mean it must be the final bottom.
Markets can always be hit by new variables.
So rather than trying to guess the exact lowest price, the more useful question is:
When prices fall, are new buyers willing to step in?
And more importantly:
Do those buyers remain there during the next pullback?
Users can use the KTX BTC/USDT Spot Trading page to monitor BTC's real-time price, 24-hour price change, trading volume, and order book activity.
To explore KTX's other markets and trading products, visit the KTX Official Website.
FAQ
Does BTC outperforming U.S. Stocks on the downside mean the bull market is about to begin?
Not necessarily.
BTC holding up better than U.S. Equities in the short term indicate relative strength, not necessarily a confirmed trend reversal.
If that relative strength persists, while lows continue to rise, trading volume recovers, and buying pressure remains consistent, then the market structure could improve further.
Does the weekend wick mean the bottom is already in?
Not necessarily.
Thin weekend liquidity can amplify price movements and trigger liquidation cascades, but whether the low becomes a meaningful bottom still depends on whether that level can hold in subsequent tests.
Why does the weekend BTC price matter?
Traditional financial markets are largely closed over the weekend while crypto markets continue trading 24/7.
As a result, crypto markets can play a role in weekend price discovery.
If a significant move occurs over the weekend, BTC's behavior when traditional markets reopen can also provide a useful reference for broader risk sentiment.
If the weekend low holds, can investors simply buy the dip?
Not necessarily.
Holding the law only suggests that the area is receiving support.
It is more important to see whether BTC can form higher lows and whether buying pressure remains present after rebounds.
Why could ETH outperform BTC?
If risk appetite begins recovering, capital may gradually rotate from BTC toward assets with higher beta.
However, higher beta also means higher volatility.
ETH/BTC relative strength, trading volume, and overall market risk appetite should therefore be considered together.
Why does rising oil matter for BTC?
Higher oil prices can affect risk assets through inflation expectations, monetary-policy expectations, and global liquidity conditions.
Therefore, when oil remains elevated, BTC can still be affected by broader changes in macro risk appetite.
Conclusion
The most frustrating part of this market isn't whether prices are going up or down.
It's the constant change in sentiment.
Yesterday, traders regretted missing the rebound.
Today, they're relieved they didn't chase it.
That's what a range-bound market does best: it constantly tests people's emotions.
And with oil prices back above $100, short-term risk assets are still facing meaningful external pressure.
But BTC and ETH are showing something worth watching:
They seem increasingly unwilling to follow U.S. equities lower.
If that relative strength persists, the market narrative could begin to change.
The weekend wick is particularly important.
From a sentiment-driven perspective, it may look like a simple liquidation event.
But from a market-structure perspective, it could also have been:
Thin liquidity
→ Concentrated selling
→ Long liquidations
→ Selling pressure exhausted
→ Rapid recovery
If that law continues to hold, it could become an important reference point for the current bottoming range.
So the key questions now are not:
“Will BTC go up today?”
Instead:
Can the weekend low hold?
Can BTC continue to outperform U.S. equities on the downside?
Can ETH begin showing relative strength?
Is there persistent demand during pullbacks?
If these signals begin appearing together, late October may be a period worth reassessing.
Because a market bottom is rarely announced on a single day with a clear message:
“This is the exact low.”
More often, it becomes visible through repeated retests.
Prices stop making new lows.
Selling pressure gets absorbed.
And the capital begins to stay.
The market gradually shifts from:
“How much lower can it go?”
to:
“Are there really that many sellers left?”
So rather than rushing to call the bottom, the more important question may be:
Was the weekend wick simply a temporary liquidity distortion, or was it genuine price discovery for this market cycle?
The answer may become clearer through the next few retests.
Original Source
“当前短线行情毫无疑问系于油价一身，在油价一次次刷新100大关的刺激下风险资产很难独涨。
昨天还沉浸在反弹没上车的懊悔中，今天就又得庆幸幸亏没追高了，震荡行情就是这样搞人心态。
本周有财报要发的SPCX和TSLA自然不用多说，可预见的高波动行情，手快心稳的人大概可以在针上博几个波段出来。
大饼以太眼瞅着是真不跟跌美股了，所以从昨天开始我也在尝试转变思维，用强者眼光来重新看待币圈了，如果这波回调币圈最终确认真的不跟跌，那11月大行情开始反弹之后可能会走的更快，尤其以太可能会在这种行情里涨幅超过大饼，本着不能踏空的心态我今天先开了一些ETH头仓，准备跌了再补，套了就死拿。
至于其他美股标的我觉得可能也已经进入底部区间了，尤其周日早上5点那根针有可能是扮演了价格发现的角色。
虽然12月纳斯达克也要进入工作日23小时交易制了，但周末的价值发现扮演者仍然是币圈所，尤其是币安作为币圈央行清算大部分流动性的情况下就更值得观察了。
如果按照通俗演绎口径讲，周日五点那根针会被归为狗庄恶意操控，先爆多单然后周一轻松拉盘。但如果抛开这种情绪化说法，底层逻辑更可能是：
集中卖单进入较薄的盘口 → 价格下跌 → 触发部分多头强平 → 强平卖单进一步压低价格 → 抛压衰减后出现回升
也就是说低流动性时打出的低位可能就是震荡箱体的底部，行情的反转不会那么快，像昨天的超卖反弹结束后今天的二探也是属必然。如果后续没有跌破周末插针位，我们基本就可以视为底部箱体有效。
这样在下周FOMC不加息，随后11月TGA账户可能改善的大背景下，10月下是应该准备逢低抄底了。美伊问题大概会放在中期选举之后的APEC会议时间上来解决。”
Original Author: TraderS | 缺德道人
X: @TraderS18
Published: October 20, 2026
Original Source: https://x.com/TraderS18/status/2112513070027493693
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