Bitcoin’s older coins are moving with improved profitability in on-chain analyst Darkfost’s latest assessment. Odaily’s October 13 report cites a weekly average long-term-holder SOPR of 1.25 and a monthly average of 1.16, both above the reported yearly average of 1.10.
The improvement gives Bitcoin’s recovery a useful supporting signal. It also creates a supply question: when older holders can realize profits again, how much Bitcoin will they bring to market, and will buyers absorb it? The answer matters more for price than a rising profit ratio alone.
The shorter averages have overtaken the yearly baseline
The three readings describe the same indicator over different observation windows. Their ordering suggests that the profitability of recently spent older coins has improved relative to the longer baseline.
| Reported average | LTH SOPR | What the comparison adds |
|---|---|---|
| Weekly | 1.25 | The strongest of the three reported readings |
| Monthly | 1.16 | The improvement extends beyond the shortest window |
| Yearly | 1.10 | The baseline used in Darkfost’s comparison |
These are averages from the cited analysis, rather than three separate live readings. A yearly average also carries older market conditions, so exceeding it describes a relative improvement. It does not identify the price at which Bitcoin must find support.
Nor does a yearly SOPR average of 1.10 mean every long-term investor earned 10% over the past year. Averaging profitability ratios for spent outputs is different from measuring the return of a portfolio held throughout that year. Coins that stayed dormant do not enter the spending sample.
The break-even line remains 1
SOPR stands for Spent Output Profit Ratio. In the UTXO-based measure, it compares the dollar value of Bitcoin outputs when they are spent with their value when they were created. CryptoQuant’s LTH-SOPR definition filters for outputs that have existed for more than 155 days.
SOPR = dollar value at spending ÷ dollar value at creation
Above 1, the included outputs have a higher aggregate value at spending than at creation; below 1, the relationship reverses. Exactly 1 is aggregate break-even. This is the economic threshold. The reported 1.10 yearly mean is a historical comparison, not a replacement for it.
For that one-output example, $60,000 divided by $50,000 equals 1.20. The $10,000 difference represents 20% of the original on-chain value before transaction fees. An actual cohort contains outputs with different ages, values and profitability; its reading should not be assigned to every holder.
“Long-term” here describes the age filter, not someone’s investment strategy or identity. The creation value is an on-chain cost proxy, not necessarily the owner’s exchange purchase cost. KTX’s guide to realized and unrealized PnL explains the separate accounting needed to calculate an individual trading result.
Profit recovery can also bring supply back to market
In his analysis, Darkfost treats moderate realized profits as constructive and draws a comparison with the end of the previous bear market. There is an intuitive basis for that view: conditions allowing older coins to move at a profit can be healthier than sustained loss realization.
That historical parallel is an interpretation, not a confirmed cycle turning point. A new cohort has different acquisition levels, and the surrounding demand conditions can change. The return of profits does not reveal how much additional capital is waiting to buy Bitcoin.
It can also encourage holders to sell. A rally gives previously patient owners a reason to release coins into circulation. In a strong market, new demand absorbs this distribution and price holds up. In a weaker market, the same profit-taking exhausts available bids.
Glassnode’s SOPR guide describes this distinction across market cycles: bear-market rallies can restore profitability too, before renewed supply overwhelms demand. A positive reading can accompany both a recovery that lasts and a rally that fades.
The same profit ratio can accompany very different selling pressure
SOPR is a ratio, not a count of sellers or a measure of total dollars sold. Imagine one eligible BTC output moves from a $50,000 creation value to a $60,000 spending value. Now imagine 1,000 BTC moves at those same valuations. Both hypothetical samples produce SOPR of 1.20, but their spending values are $60,000 and $60 million respectively.
The example shows why the margin and scale of distribution need separate attention. A modest profitability reading with a large quantity of old coins moving may matter more for supply than a sharp ratio spike generated by a small sample. A few very low-cost outputs can also lift the aggregate ratio.
On-chain spending is not automatically an exchange sale. Owners can reorganize wallets or transfer coins without executing a market order. Glassnode’s entity-adjusted methodology excludes transfers between addresses attributed to the same entity, illustrating why differently filtered SOPR series can diverge.
Older coins sent to exchange wallets provide a more focused signal of potential distribution, but an exchange transfer still does not prove a sale occurred. The useful combination is profitability, spending volume, destination and the subsequent market response.
Persistent buying determines whether the improvement lasts
A constructive continuation would involve more than LTH SOPR staying above 1. Older-coin spending would remain manageable while spot buying absorbs the available supply. Price could hold its recovered area during pullbacks, and recent buyers would avoid returning to sustained loss realization.
The short-term-holder cohort provides a complementary perspective. CryptoQuant’s STH-SOPR guide measures younger spent outputs. Improvement in both cohorts would describe a broader recovery in spending profitability, though neither indicator directly measures fresh buying demand.
Conversely, rising profitability of spent older coins alongside accelerating old-coin transfers, weak spot buying and falling prices would suggest distribution is becoming harder to absorb. If the shorter averages weaken and LTH SOPR spends a sustained period below 1, the initial improvement would be giving way to renewed loss realization.
Market depth helps connect that on-chain picture to execution. The BTC/USDT spot market on KTX provides a place to examine current bids, asks and traded prices; eligible users can register a KTX account to access available trading services. KTX’s crypto liquidity guide explains why the latest quotation alone does not establish buyers’ capacity to absorb a larger sale.
Daily readings and smoothed averages should also be compared consistently. A brief spike can disappear as the window rolls forward. The more informative test is whether profitability and price withstand the next pullback while supply remains absorbable. That would strengthen the recovery interpretation; a profit ratio rising while bids retreat would weaken it.
Frequently asked questions
Does SOPR of 1 mean every spent coin broke even?
No. Profitable and loss-making outputs can offset in the aggregate. A ratio of 1 describes their combined spending value relative to their combined creation value, not an identical result for each output.
Is LTH SOPR the same as the LTH/STH SOPR Ratio?
No. CryptoQuant defines SOPR Ratio as LTH SOPR divided by STH SOPR. That ratio compares the two cohorts. For example, LTH SOPR of 1.20 and STH SOPR of 1.20 produce a ratio of 1, even though both cohorts’ spent outputs are profitable in aggregate.
This article is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. All numerical illustrations are hypothetical except the explicitly attributed analyst readings. Bitcoin trading involves price, liquidity and execution risks.