In our previous analysis, we discussed an important characteristic of Bitcoin: a large portion of its long-term returns can come from a very small number of key trading days. This means that trying to perfectly time the market can carry its own risk—especially if investors end up missing the strongest upward moves.

But another question is equally important: who is actually buying Bitcoin right now?

As of October 11, Bitcoin's First Buyers (FB) holdings in the current cycle had reached approximately 4.27 million BTC, a level close to where it stood in mid-August 2023.

More notably, FB holdings have increased by around 400,000 BTC since before the market rally began in August, equivalent to roughly 2% of the total circulating supply. That means approximately 200,000 BTC per month has been accumulated by new buyers over the past two months.

By comparison, from January to August 2023, FB holdings increased by around 340,000 BTC over seven months, or approximately 1.7% of the circulating supply.

The difference becomes even more significant when considering Bitcoin's price. BTC is currently around 2.6 times higher than its 2023 level, meaning the capital required to accumulate the same amount of BTC is substantially larger.

At the same time, another interesting signal has appeared: Momentum Buyers (MB) returned in September for the first time since January.

So what do FB and MB actually tell us about the current Bitcoin market?

1.Why Are First Buyers (FB) So Important?

First Buyers, or FB, can be understood as newly entering Bitcoin holders. Their accumulation behavior provides a direct perspective on whether new demand is entering the market.

This is important because prices alone cannot tell us whether a market is being supported by sustainable demand.

A rising Bitcoin price can come from several factors, including:

• Existing holders selling at higher prices
• Short-term speculative trading
• Leverage
• Institutional flows
• New investors entering the market

Among these factors, the behavior of new buyers is particularly important for understanding whether the market is attracting fresh capital.

In simple terms:

More new buyers = potentially stronger new demand.

That does not mean every increase in FB holdings will lead to higher prices. However, when new buyers continue accumulating during a rising market, it can provide useful evidence that the market is attracting participants beyond existing holders.

2.Seven Months in 2023 vs. Two Months This Cycle

The contrast between the current cycle and 2023 is particularly interesting.

From January to August 2023:

• FB holdings increased by approximately 340,000 BTC
• The increase represented around 1.7% of circulating supply
• The accumulation took approximately seven months

In the current cycle:

• FB holdings have increased by approximately 400,000 BTC
• The increase represents around 2% of circulating supply
• The accumulation happened in roughly two months

In other words, the amount of Bitcoin accumulated by new buyers in the current cycle has already exceeded the increase seen during the first seven months of 2023.

And there is another important difference.

Bitcoin's price today is approximately 2.6 times higher than it was in 2023.

Therefore, even if the number of newly accumulated BTC looks similar, the amount of capital required to purchase those coins is much larger.

This makes the current FB data worth watching.

Of course, FB accumulation should not be treated as a standalone Bitcoin price prediction. It is better understood as a way to observe the strength and composition of market demand.

3.From New Buyers to Momentum Buyers: Is Market Confidence Changing?

The more surprising development came in September.

After disappearing for several months, Momentum Buyers (MB) appeared again for the first time since January.

MB refers to entities whose latest balance change shows that they purchased Bitcoin above their own previous cost basis, effectively pushing their cost basis higher.

In simple terms, these are buyers who are willing to buy at prices higher than where they previously accumulated.

This behavior is different from simply buying a dip.

When investors are willing to continue buying at higher prices, it can indicate that their confidence in the market trend is increasing.

That is why MB can potentially act as a “booster” for market momentum.

The more participants are willing to chase higher prices, the more investors may believe that the previous bearish phase has ended.

This can create a positive feedback loop:

Higher prices → stronger confidence → more momentum buying → stronger demand → potentially stronger market trend

But this mechanism only works if demand remains sustainable.

4.Why Do Momentum Buyers Matter to Bitcoin's Trend?

One reason MB is worth watching is that bearish-market rebounds usually lack sustained momentum buying.

During a typical bear-market bounce, investors may buy after prices fall sharply. But they may be reluctant to continue buying once prices move significantly higher.

That can create a pattern where:

Price rises → buyers take profit → demand weakens → rally loses momentum.

Momentum buyers behave differently.

They are willing to enter or add to positions even when Bitcoin is already trading above their previous cost basis.

This behavior can provide additional support for a sustained trend.

However, MB should also not be interpreted as a guarantee that Bitcoin has entered a new bull market.

A stronger signal would be the combination of:

New buyers entering + existing buyers increasing exposure + momentum buyers returning.

That combination tells us more about the structure of demand than price movement alone.

5.FB + MB: A More Interesting Combination

FB and MB represent two different aspects of market behavior.

FB = new demand

MB = willingness to buy at higher prices

If FB increases but MB remains weak, it could mean that new capital is entering the market but investors are still relatively cautious.

If MB increases without strong FB growth, it could indicate that existing participants are becoming more confident, but the market may still lack enough fresh demand.

But when both signals begin to strengthen, the market becomes much more interesting.

The current data therefore deserves attention because:

• FB holdings have increased rapidly
• The current accumulation pace appears stronger than in 2023
• MB has reappeared after disappearing since January
• Bitcoin is trading at significantly higher prices than during the previous cycle

None of these factors alone can confirm a bull market.

But together, they provide a more detailed picture of who is buying Bitcoin and how aggressively they are willing to buy.

6.KTX Crypto Market Watch: Focus on Who Is Buying Bitcoin

For investors, it may be tempting to focus only on one question:

“How high can Bitcoin go?”

But another question may be equally important:

“Who is buying Bitcoin at these prices?”

The answer can help us understand whether a rally is primarily driven by short-term speculation or supported by broader demand.

Going forward, several indicators can be monitored together:

• First Buyers (FB)
• Momentum Buyers (MB)
• ETF flows
• Bitcoin price structure
• Spot trading volume
• Futures open interest
• Funding rates
• Liquidations
• Broader market liquidity

For users who want to monitor BTC markets directly, KTX BTC/USDT Spot Trading provides access to BTC/USDT spot trading.

You can also explore more products and market information through the KTX Official Website.

FAQ

1.What are Bitcoin First Buyers (FB)?

First Buyers (FB) refers to newly entering Bitcoin holders whose accumulation behavior can be used to observe fresh demand entering the market.

2.Why does FB accumulation matter?

A sustained increase in FB holdings suggests that new market participants are accumulating Bitcoin. It can therefore provide useful information about the strength of new demand.

3.What are Momentum Buyers (MB)?

Momentum Buyers are entities whose latest balance change indicates that they bought Bitcoin above their own previous cost basis, effectively increasing their cost basis.

4.Why are Momentum Buyers important?

MB can reflect a willingness to continue buying at higher prices. When this behavior becomes more widespread, it may indicate improving market confidence and stronger momentum.

5.Does the combination of FB and MB confirm a Bitcoin bull market?

No.

FB and MB are useful market-structure indicators, but neither can independently confirm a bull market. They should be considered alongside liquidity, ETF flows, price structure, trading volume and other market indicators.

6.Why shouldn't we only look at Bitcoin's price?

Price tells us what has already happened, but buyer behavior can provide additional information about who is supporting the move and whether new demand is entering the market.

7.What should investors watch next?

The key question is whether the increase in new buyers and momentum buyers can continue.

If FB accumulation remains strong and MB continues to appear alongside healthy liquidity and market structure, it could provide a more constructive picture of Bitcoin demand.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's market structure may be telling us more than price alone.

As of October 11, First Buyers held approximately 4.27 million BTC, with holdings increasing by around 400,000 BTC since the market began accelerating in August.

By comparison, FB holdings increased by around 340,000 BTC during the first seven months of 2023.

More importantly, the current cycle has also seen the return of Momentum Buyers, who had not appeared since January.

These two signals represent different aspects of market demand:

FB represents new demand.

MB represents renewed willingness to buy at higher prices.

Neither signal guarantees that Bitcoin will continue rising. But together, they offer a useful perspective on whether the current market is attracting new participants and whether confidence in the trend is strengthening.

Perhaps the more important question now is not simply:

“How much higher can Bitcoin go?”

but:

“Are more people still willing to buy it at these prices?”

If the answer continues to be yes, the market structure becomes increasingly worth watching.

Original Source

As of October 11, Bitcoin holdings among First Buyers (FB) in the current cycle had reached 4.27 million BTC.

In terms of absolute holdings, this is already comparable to the level seen in mid-August 2023.

Compared with the period before the market rally began in August this year, FB holdings have increased by as much as 400,000 BTC, equivalent to approximately 2% of the total circulating supply. This means that over the past two months, new investors have accumulated an average of around 200,000 BTC per month.

By comparison, from January to August 2023, as Bitcoin went through the entire bear-to-bull transition, FB holdings increased by approximately 340,000 BTC, but it took seven months to reach that level.

Moreover, the current BTC price is approximately 2.6 times higher than it was in 2023, meaning the amount of capital required for FBs to accumulate these holdings is far greater than it was back then.

New buyers represent new demand, and this metric shows stronger performance compared with the previous cycle.

Another development that surprised me—and was also a pleasant surprise—is, is that during the market move in September, we saw the return of Momentum Buyers (MB) after a long absence.

This is the first time they have appeared since January this year.

MB refers to entities whose latest balance change shows that they bought above their own cost basis and pushed their cost basis higher. In other words, these are participants whose latest action was to increase their holdings at prices above their previous cost basis.

MB can act as a “booster” for market trends. The more people willing to buy at higher prices, the more participants may believe that the bear market has ended, allowing market confidence to recover more quickly.

This is also why, during a typical bear-market rebound, we generally do not see a significant increase in MB activity.

Bitcoin will not let down those who believe in it. Today, it continues to move forward at its own unique pace.

Original Author: Murphy 

X Account: @Murphychen888 

Publication Date: October 13, 2026 

Original Post: https://x.com/Murphychen888/status/2109818908748243215

Risk Disclaimer

Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile. Bitcoin prices can be affected by macroeconomic conditions, monetary policy, market liquidity, capital flows and investor sentiment, among other factors.

This article is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment or trading advice. On-chain indicators, capital-flow data and market metrics may have limitations or delays, and historical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Indicators such as FB and MB should only be used to help understand market structure and should not be treated as deterministic predictions of future price movements. Before using futures or other leveraged products, users should fully understand margin requirements, funding rates and liquidation risks.