TC briefly fell toward $80,000 last night, representing a pullback of around 8% from its recent high.
For a market that has just experienced a rally, a correction of this size can easily trigger renewed fear.
However, when we combine recent fund flows, the macro environment, the derivatives market, and the STH-RUL risk structure discussed in our previous article, the more important question may not be whether BTC is entering another deep bear market, but rather:
Can the market stabilize after the correction?
According to the original analysis by BITWU.ETH, the previously established $81K–$83K price range has now been reached.
The next two conditions are more important to watch:
Whether BTC can stabilize after the correction, and whether market liquidity continues to deteriorate.
If both conditions are met, the market's ability to absorb selling pressure may be worth monitoring more closely.
Fund Flows Are Cooling: Where Is the Pressure on BTC Coming From?
The first factor worth watching is the recent change in fund flows.
According to the original data, over the five most recent complete trading days—October 1, 2, 5, 6, and 7—net $163.3 million.
Among them, October 7 alone recorded a net outflow of approximately $484.9 million.
This indicates that spot demand has indeed weakened to some extent recently.
That is one of the factors worth watching during the current BTC pullback.
If the decline is simply caused by short-term profit-taking while capital flows remain relatively stable, the market may be more capable of absorbing selling pressure.
However, if prices continue falling while capital continues to leave the market and demand weakens further, the correction could potentially develop into a more sustained decline.
Therefore, the key question right now is not:
"BTC has fallen 8%—does that mean the bear market is back?"
Instead:
"Will the outflow of capital continue to accelerate?"
If capital flows begin to stabilize after BTC falls toward $80,000, the nature of this correction could be different from the persistent declines typically seen during a deep bear market.
Macro Pressure Remains, but Some Indicators Are Changing
In addition to capital flows within the crypto market, the broader macro environment also deserves attention.
According to the original data, the U.S. The 10-year Treasury yield was around 5.22% on October 8, down from 5.28% the previous day.
The U.S. The Dollar Index was reported at approximately 102.17 that day.
Although the macro environment remains challenging, the short-term decline in the 10-year Treasury yield suggests that not every market variable is moving toward tighter conditions.
For BTC, macro conditions do not necessarily determine the price movement of a single day, but they can influence overall liquidity and risk appetite.
Therefore, when assessing the current correction, it may be useful to consider macro variables alongside internal crypto-market data.
If:
Treasury Yields → U.S. Dollar Index → ETF Flows → BTC Spot Demand
do not continue to deteriorate, the short-term BTC correction may not necessarily indicate a return to a deep bear market.
BTC Leverage Remains High, Making Stabilization After the Pullback Important
In addition to spot flows, the derivatives market also deserves close attention.
According to the original data, BTC open interest currently stands at approximately $52.68 billion.
Meanwhile, the most recent settled funding rate snapshot from OKX was approximately +0.0062% per 8 hours.
This indicates that a substantial amount of leveraged capital remains in the market.
For a highly volatile asset like BTC, high open interest can amplify price movements.
During an upward move, leveraged positions can accelerate a rally.
But when prices begin to decline, excessive concentration in long positions can also trigger cascading liquidations, potentially accelerating the short-term decline.
Therefore, after BTC falls toward $80,000, one of the most important factors to monitor is:
Can the price stabilize, and will leverage begin to decline meaningfully?
If BTC stabilizes while open interest and funding rates do not deteriorate significantly, the current pullback may represent a relatively normal release of leverage-related risk.
Conversely, if BTC continues to decline while open interest remains elevated and funding rates remain persistently positive, the risk of further liquidations deserves greater attention.
MVRV Around 1.55: How Far Is the Market From Extreme Risk?
On-chain valuation metrics provide another perspective.
According to the original data, the latest Glassnode figures show:
MVRV around 1.55 and Z-Score around 1.00.
MVRV is primarily used to examine the relationship between BTC's market value and realized value.
In simple terms, it can help us understand:
Where the current market price stands relative to the historical cost structure.
An MVRV of around 1.55 does not by itself indicate that the market has entered an extreme bubble zone.
Likewise, it should not be used as a standalone indicator to predict whether BTC will rise or fall.
However, when combined with the STH-RUL framework discussed previously, it provides an interesting way to interpret the current market:
A price correction does not necessarily mean the market has returned to a deep bear phase.
What matters more is whether the decline causes short-term holders' financial pressure to rise sharply again.
If BTC pulls back while STH-RUL does not return to an extreme stress zone, the market structure may be different from that of a deep bear market.
STH-RUL: Should We Be More Concerned About Getting Trapped or Missing the Rally?
We previously discussed STH-RUL.
This indicator focuses on:
The level of unrealized loss currently experienced by short-term holders.
During a deep bear market, large numbers of short-term investors remain underwater, causing market stress to rise sharply.
However, as coins continue to change hands, if new market participants enter at lower costs, the overall cost structure can gradually improve.
In this situation, even if BTC experiences another correction, the actual level of market stress may remain lower than during a deep bear market.
This is why evaluating the current BTC pullback requires more than simply watching price.
The real question is:
Has this decline created another extreme level of investor financial stress?
If not, the market may still be moving through the phases discussed in our previous article:
Late Bear Market → Bear-to-Bull Transition → Trend Confirmation
This also creates a very different question from the one investors face during a deep bear market:
If investors continue waiting for the same deep retracement seen in the previous bear market, could they eventually miss the real rally?
KTX Crypto Insight: Near $80,000, the Key Is Not Calling the Bottom but Watching for Market Support
For KTX Crypto, the most important question during the current BTC pullback is not simply whether $80,000 is the bottom.
No single indicator can accurately tell us where the market bottom is.
What matters more is whether market support conditions begin to improve after the correction.
Several factors can be monitored together:
BTC Price Structure → ETF & Spot Flows → STH-RUL → MVRV → Open Interest → Funding Rates → Liquidations → Macro Liquidity
If BTC gradually stabilizes around $80,000, capital outflows stop worsening, leverage begins to decline, and short-term holders' financial pressure does not return to an extreme level, this correction may look more like a risk-release and support test during the bear-to-bull transition.
Conversely, if BTC continues breaking below key price levels while capital continues flowing out, leveraged liquidations increase, and STH-RUL rises sharply again, overall market risk could expand once more.
The KTX Market Page currently provides market data including market conditions, fear sentiment, total crypto open interest, total liquidations, and 7-day BTC ETF net flows, which can serve as additional tools for monitoring changes in BTC market risk.
Users can also visit the KTX BTC/USDT Spot Trading Page to check BTC price, 24-hour change, trading volume, order book, and other market data.
To learn more about other markets and trading products available on KTX, visit the KTX Official Website.
It is important to note that:
Market indicators help us understand "what is happening," rather than tell us "what we should definitely buy right now."
Especially during the bear-to-bull transition, short-term corrections can still occur frequently.
FAQ
Why did BTC pull back toward $80,000?
According to the original analysis, the current pullback occurred against a backdrop of cooling spot demand, capital outflows, and continued macro pressure.
Over the five most recent complete trading days, total net outflows reached approximately $163.3 million, with a single-day net outflow of approximately $484.9 million on October 7.
Therefore, the key factor to watch is whether capital flows can gradually stabilize after the pullback.
Does an approximately 8% decline from the recent BTC high mean the bear market has returned?
Not necessarily.
BTC is a highly volatile asset, and an approximately 8% correction alone does not prove that the market has entered another bear market.
More importantly, investors should observe whether market structure deteriorates alongside the correction, including capital flows, leverage, STH-RUL, and macro conditions.
Why is stabilization around $80,000 important?
Because the previously identified $81K–$83K price range has now been reached.
If BTC finds support around this area while capital flows do not continue to deteriorate, the market may enter a new observation phase.
However, if prices continue falling alongside persistent capital outflows, market risk needs to be reassessed.
What does BTC open interest of approximately $52.68 billion mean?
High open interest indicates that a significant amount of leveraged positioning remains in the market.
This can amplify both upward and downward price movements.
If BTC continues to decline, highly leveraged positions may trigger further liquidations. Therefore, open interest should be assessed together with funding rates and liquidation data.
What does an MVRV of around 1.55 indicate?
MVRV can be used to observe the relationship between BTC's overall market value and realized value.
An MVRV of around 1.55 cannot directly predict BTC's future price direction, but it can be combined with other on-chain indicators to evaluate the market's overall valuation and risk conditions.
What role does STH-RUL play during this correction?
STH-RUL primarily measures the unrealized loss pressure experienced by short-term holders.
If BTC declines while STH-RUL does not return to an extreme stress zone, the market may not have returned to the risk structure of a deep bear market.
Therefore, it is more useful for answering:
"How painful is this correction?"
rather than directly answering:
"Should I buy BTC right now?"
Conclusion
After BTC pulled back toward $80,000, the key question for the market is not:
"Is $80,000 the absolute bottom?"
Instead:
"Has the market developed enough support after the correction?"
So far, capital flows have clearly cooled. Over the five most recent complete trading days, total net outflows reached approximately $163.3 million, while October 7 alone saw approximately $484.9 million in net outflows. At the same time, BTC open interest remains elevated and the macro environment continues to present challenges.
Therefore, short-term risks should not be ignored.
However, based on the STH-RUL framework discussed previously, a price correction alone does not mean that the market has returned to a deep bear phase.
If BTC gradually stabilizes around $80,000, capital flows stop deteriorating, and short-term holders' financial pressure does not return to an extreme level, this correction may be better understood as:
A risk-release and support test during the bear-to-bull transition.
Conversely, if prices continue falling while capital continues flowing out, leveraged liquidations increase, and STH-RUL rises sharply again, market risk could expand once more.
Therefore, rather than rushing to guess the "lowest price," it may be more useful to keep watching:
Is capital coming back?
Can the price stabilize?
Is leverage declining?
Is the financial pressure on short-term holders worsening again?
These conditions may be more important than focusing on any single BTC price level.
For BTC, which may already be moving through a bear-to-bull transition, the biggest market risk may not necessarily be another ordinary correction.
It may be:
Becoming overly fearful during the correction, and then being unable to get back in when the market rebounds.
Original Source
📉$BTC昨晚上跌到80000附近，阶段高点回撤约 8% 慌不慌？ 也就是说上次制定的 81K–83K 这个价格条件已经到了；目前需要等等看回调后企稳、资金面没有继续恶化这两个条件，如果同时满足我会再打入部分子弹； 给大家看看我早上找到的数据： 1️⃣最近5个完整交易日，即10月1、2、5、6、7日，合计净流出1.633亿美元；其中10月7日单日净流出4.849亿美元。 2️⃣美国财政部10月8日10年期收益率为 5.22%，较前一日5.28%回落；美元指数当天报道值约 102.17。 3️⃣CoinGlass BTC未平仓合约约 526.8亿美元；OKX本次快照中上一期已结算资金费率约 +0.0062%/8小时。 4️⃣Glassnode页面最新MVRV约 1.55、Z-Score约 1.00， 我的推断：这轮回撤发生在现货需求降温、宏观仍有压力的背景下，属于回撤承接观察期。
Original Author: BITWU.ETH 🔆
X Account: @Bitwux
Original Source: https://x.com/Bitwux/status/2108369829329817872
Risk Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile. BTC prices may be affected by a wide range of factors, including macroeconomic conditions, monetary policy, market liquidity, capital flows, and investor sentiment. This article is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. On-chain indicators, capital-flow data, and market data may have limitations and delays, and historical patterns do not guarantee future performance. When using futures or other leveraged products, please fully understand margin requirements, funding rates, and liquidation risks.