Key Takeaways from This Livestream

The central view of this livestream is that BTC and ETH have entered a period of high-level consolidation after breaking out of their previous ranges, and the market is waiting for a new directional move. In the short term, the more likely scenario is an initial push higher, followed by an assessment of whether price can achieve an effective breakout through the key target zone. However, this should not be treated as certainty that the market will rise in a straight line. The most important factor now is whether the former range high can continue to provide support. If price falls back into the old range, both major cryptocurrencies and altcoins could face a deeper pullback.

Zeyu believes that another market move may still emerge during the first few days of China’s National Day holiday, with particular attention on market performance from October 1 to October 4. Historical patterns suggest that the early part of the holiday may be relatively strong, but conditions should be reassessed after October 4 rather than assuming that last year’s rhythm will repeat. An industry conference is also scheduled around October 7, and news flow and liquidity may amplify short-term volatility. Trading plans should therefore be adjusted as the market develops.

BTC Market Analysis

BTC has consolidated at elevated levels for about a week since breaking above its previous range. Price has repeatedly retested the former range high and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. The $82,600-$83,000 area remains the key short-term support zone. The long position entered near $82,688 previously reached the first take-profit target at $83,777. During the livestream, price advanced further toward $85,000, triggering the second take-profit target at $84,888. The third target is $85,888.

BTC currently has two main potential scenarios. The first is for price to continue holding above the range high, complete its consolidation around $82,000-$83,000, and then move higher again. In that case, attention would turn to the previous high and the 0.786 target area near $89,000. The second scenario is a break below the range high and a return to the old range. Such a structure would weaken the validity of the breakout and could send the market into a deeper pullback.

Regarding the potential resistance near $89,000, the livestream did not recommend trying to short the first touch from the left side. A more prudent approach is to wait for the initial pullback, then observe whether the lower-timeframe rebound forms a lower high before considering a short position. If traders short immediately on the first test of resistance, price could continue through $90,000 and create substantial countertrend risk.

The overall strategy remains trend-following and focused on buying pullbacks. There is no urgency to establish short positions at present. A new short setup would only be considered if BTC approaches $89,000 and develops a clear lower-timeframe weakening structure. If price falls back into the old range, bullish expectations should be reduced promptly and risk should be reassessed.

ETH Market Analysis

ETH has a similar structure to BTC, although their short-term relative strength can differ. On the day before the livestream, ETH rebounded to approximately $2,748-$2,749, narrowly missing the planned short-entry zone. Because the order was not filled, the trade was abandoned rather than chased over a difference of only a few dollars.

For ETH, the main focus is support near the range high at approximately $2,630. In the short term, price can be viewed as trading within a $2,600-$2,750 consolidation range. If support holds, ETH may retest the previous high at $2,806 and then move toward the 0.786 Fibonacci area near $3,030. If price breaks below the range high and returns to the old range, traders should guard against a deeper pullback.

During the livestream, Zeyu stated that he was still holding an ETH long position from around $2,658 and preferred to wait for the upside potential to materialize. As with BTC, he did not recommend shorting immediately from the left side when ETH reaches approximately $3,030. Traders should wait for a rally, a pullback, and a secondary rebound structure before deciding whether to participate in a short position.

For medium- and long-term spot allocation, the livestream emphasized that traders should not overfocus on finding the absolute bottom. Missing substantial BTC and ETH rallies while waiting for lower prices is a lesson worth reviewing. If ETH trades within the $2,550-$2,050 range, investors can build an initial 20%-30% base position in stages. If price pulls back further, they can add gradually according to plan instead of continually waiting for an extreme low that may never appear.

PCE Data and News-Driven Market Response

The PCE data was released during the livestream. After the reading came in below market expectations, BTC and ETH moved higher in the short term. Zeyu emphasized that the apparent direction of a news event does not guarantee that price will continue rising or falling. In many cases, the market simply uses the event to produce a brief liquidity wick.

Traders should not use 100x, 150x, or even 200x leverage to bet on direction during a data release. Extreme leverage can easily result in losses on both long and short positions during sharp two-way wicks. Traders who already hold positions from lower levels can follow their original plan and maintain take-profit and stop-loss orders. Those without positions are better served by observing first and trading only after volatility stabilizes.

Altcoin Market Conditions and Trading Ideas

Whether altcoins can deliver sustained performance still depends primarily on BTC and ETH remaining stable. When major cryptocurrencies rise rapidly, capital usually concentrates in the broader market leaders, while many altcoins post limited gains. When BTC consolidates at elevated levels and volatility contracts, capital is more likely to rotate into altcoins. If BTC and ETH fall suddenly, most altcoins may experience a larger drawdown.

LINK

LINK was one of the strongest assets reviewed in this session. The previously highlighted area was approximately $12-$13, and price later rose to around $15.70, representing a gain of roughly 25%. LINK continued making new highs even while the broader market pulled back, showing a degree of independent strength. However, after a 20%-30% gain, traders should consider taking profit in stages and avoid setting excessively high expectations for an altcoin.

COMP

COMP has a relatively small circulating supply and market capitalization, but it has historically been prone to rapid rallies. Such surges are often followed by substantial pullbacks, so take-profit orders should be established in advance to avoid watching a sharp gain return to its starting point. After a major advance, COMP should not be chased at elevated levels; traders should wait for a clearer pullback structure.

ARB

ARB entered a pullback after a rapid advance. On the chart, the 0.5 Fibonacci level was near $0.193 and the 0.618 level was near $0.178. The livestream view was that ARB could still rebound if the broader market remains stable, with approximately $0.22 as a short-term area of interest. However, traders must wait for buying support after a pullback rather than chasing price as it makes new highs.

HYPE

During the livestream Q&A, a HYPE position with an average cost of approximately $91.50 was discussed. The view was that if BTC and ETH remain stable, HYPE still has a chance to return to around $93, and a move toward $100 is not entirely out of the question. However, its performance depends heavily on the broader market and should not be assessed separately from BTC and ETH.

BCH and BSV

BCH and BSV have already undergone relatively deep pullbacks after their earlier rallies, making them two of the assets worth continued observation in this session. BSV retraced to the 0.618 Fibonacci level near $19.76, while BCH pulled back to the 0.5 level near $304.50. The livestream view was that both assets could stage another rebound if the broader market remains stable. They are better approached after their pullbacks have completed rather than by chasing assets that have already risen for several consecutive sessions.

Other Assets

ICP and FIL have also rebounded recently, although their strength has not been extreme. XLM, ONDO, and other assets mentioned during the livestream should follow the same principle: stable major cryptocurrencies, entries after pullbacks, and profit-taking in stages. Altcoins with very small market capitalizations, poor liquidity, and little market recognition should generally be avoided.

Position Sizing and Risk Management

This livestream repeatedly emphasized reducing trading frequency and controlling position size. Zeyu stated that after experiencing a pullback in earlier profits, he is now placing greater emphasis on steady execution. BTC and ETH should be traded with small positions, altcoin allocations should be even smaller, and traders should avoid holding too many assets at once. When someone holds more than ten altcoins simultaneously, even profitable positions become difficult to manage and monetize efficiently.

When an altcoin position gains 20%-40%, traders should consider realizing profits in stages. Profits that remain only on paper for too long can turn back into losses after a single pullback. Existing positions should be managed according to the trader’s own entry cost, position size, and risk tolerance. Another person’s position management method should not be copied mechanically.

Even if livestreams pause during the National Day holiday, trading plans and market monitoring will continue. All positions should be checked for stop-loss and take-profit orders before going to sleep, especially around PCE releases, industry conferences, the U.S. stock market open, and other windows that can amplify volatility. Traders should accept both possibilities in advance: the market may rise as expected, or it may fall back into the range and trigger the stop-loss.

Summary

The core purpose of this livestream was not to predict that BTC would definitely rise, but to establish two response plans around the key support levels following the breakout. For BTC, the main area to watch is $82,000-$83,000; for ETH, it is $2,600-$2,630. If these areas hold, traders can continue monitoring the previous highs and the 0.786 targets. If price falls back into the old ranges, they should prepare for a deeper pullback.

Among altcoins, LINK has developed a strong independent move. BCH, BSV, and ARB are better approached after pullbacks, while COMP and HYPE should be assessed in conjunction with broader-market stability. None of these assets should be chased when they are rapidly making new highs, and traders should not blindly take countertrend shorts while the major cryptocurrencies remain strong.

Trading should continue to follow three principles: first, do not chase either longs or shorts; second, use small positions and take profit in stages; third, always set a stop-loss in advance. How far the market might eventually move is less important than building a plan around the current structure and proceeding one step at a time.

KTX Platform Tools and Further Reading

Readers can use KTX Crypto to view the Latest Crypto Prices, Crypto Prices, and Real-Time Market Analysis, while tools such as the AI Trading Signal Radar, Position Analysis, Smart Money, On-Chain Projects, and Meme Coin Volatility Monitor can help with market observation. The BTC and Ethereum Price pages provide spot-market data. Anyone participating in Spot Trading, BTC Futures, ETH Futures, or Perpetual Futures should define position size, leverage, and stop-loss boundaries in advance.

KTX also provides access to Copy Trading, Futures Copy Trading, One-Click Copy Trading, and Capital-Protected Copy Trading, as well as information on APY, Launchpool, Prediction Markets, Skills, Rewards Hub, and the Rewards Center. These links are provided only for further reading. Before using any feature, users should independently evaluate its rules, sources of return, and risks.

Livestream Resources and How to Join

Users who have not joined the official KTX Lark Group can scan the QR code in the upper-right corner of the livestream or below. The group shares daily market views, livestream announcements, strategy reviews, and related activities.

Risk Warning

This article is compiled from the livestream and is intended solely for market discussion and trading education. It does not constitute investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile, and futures trading involves substantial risk. Please control position size according to your own circumstances, set strict stop-loss and take-profit orders, and make independent trading decisions.