This article is published in the “Market Analysis” section of KTX Crypto Academy and is based on the official Web3 market livestream by KTX Baize Business School.

Livestream Date: September 18, 2026

Lead Instructor: Baize

Livestream Platform: KTX Official Chinese Lark Group

Full Livestream Replay:

This KTX Baize Business School Web3 market livestream has been uploaded to YouTube. You are welcome to watch the full replay.

YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/kxl1tiJj9iA

Market Overview

This livestream examined the market from three perspectives: the interest-rate cycle, safe-haven asset characteristics, and market structure. Baize argued that traders should not mechanically apply conclusions such as “rate cuts always drive prices higher, rate hikes always drive prices lower,” or “a MACD golden cross always means a rise and a death cross always means a decline.” Short-term prices are affected by expectations being priced in, capital flows, and positioning, while the long-term direction must be assessed by combining the economic cycle, asset characteristics, trend structure, and cost-basis distribution.

From a medium- to long-term perspective, the instructor remains bullish on BTC and the broader crypto market. An improving interest-rate environment lowers funding costs, making large institutions more likely to increase their allocation to risk assets in a new investment cycle. Gold and BTC both have safe-haven and store-of-value characteristics, but during sudden geopolitical risks, capital usually moves first into gold, which has deeper liquidity and broader consensus, before potentially spreading to digital assets such as BTC. Therefore, short-term volatility does not mean that the long-term trend has reversed.

The second half of the livestream moved into specific chart analysis, focusing on BTC, ETH, SOL, and ZEC. The overall strategy was not to chase rallies or selloffs in the middle of a range, but to wait for price to return to a clear support zone for a left-side setup, or to wait for a break of the descending trendline followed by a higher high and a higher low for right-side confirmation.

Key Takeaways

1. BTC remains in a large-scale uptrend. The instructor views the current pullback as a phase of consolidation within the rising trend rather than a complete trend reversal.

2. Key support for BTC lies at $74,000–$75,000, while the $75,800–$76,000 area can serve as a left-side observation zone on another pullback.

3. If BTC does not return to the left-side support zone, traders should wait for price to break the descending trendline and form a higher high and a higher low. A right-side entry should only be considered after the 1-2-3 pattern is confirmed.

4. The Fibonacci extension target for BTC is around $87,483. The livestream identified $87,500–$88,000 as a potential area for a later test, provided that a valid right-side structure is established.

5. ETH has shown greater relative strength than BTC. It found support after previously pulling back to the 0.382 retracement area near $2,340, but it is now between support and resistance, making the middle of the range unsuitable for a blind entry.

6. For a left-side ETH setup, focus on the $2,340–$2,400 area. On the right side, watch whether price can break effectively above approximately $2,549 and confirm support on a retest.

7. Key support for SOL is around $95–$96. A left-side opportunity may appear if price returns to this area and stabilizes. If no pullback occurs, wait for a break of the descending trendline and confirmation of the 1-2-3 pattern before taking a right-side setup.

8. ZEC has completed a strong rally. The earlier long setup near $1,060 was reviewed as a past example. The current focus is the support-resistance flip at $1,297–$1,300; holding above it would keep the trend-following bias intact.

9. In a strong market, traders should not attempt to call the top simply because price “looks high.” ZEC shows that trend and liquidity matter more than the absolute price. Short covering and liquidations can also become buying pressure that drives the rally further.

10. Position management should follow the rule: add to winners, not losers. Once a right-side structure is confirmed and the market validates the trade direction, positions may be increased in stages. If the trade thesis fails, reduce the position or stop out rather than compounding the mistake by averaging down.

Common Questions About BTC and ETH

1. Does the BTC pullback mean the uptrend is over?

The instructor’s answer is no. The weekly and higher-timeframe structures remain upward, and the next impulsive wave in the wave structure has not fully developed. The short-term pullback should first be viewed as consolidation within the trend. The bullish structure only needs to be reassessed if key support levels continue to fail.

2. Where is the most important support for BTC now?

First watch the $75,800–$76,000 area, followed by the strong support zone at $74,000–$75,000. This region overlaps with the previous retracement structure and Fibonacci levels, making it the core observation zone for this session’s left-side strategy.

3. If I missed buying BTC at support, can I chase the move higher?

Chasing is not recommended after the left-side entry has been missed and before a right-side structure has formed. A more prudent approach is to wait for price to break the descending trendline, form a new high and a higher low, and then enter after a successful retest.

4. How should the potential upside for BTC be evaluated?

The livestream used a Fibonacci extension to identify approximately $87,483 as a reference level and treated $87,500–$88,000 as a potential target zone. This is not an unconditional forecast; it depends on a trendline breakout, structural confirmation, and support holding.

5. Why is ETH not suitable for a direct entry at the current price?

The current price is between support and resistance. It is neither an attractive left-side low nor a confirmed right-side breakout. A left-side setup should wait for support near $2,340–$2,400, while a right-side setup should wait for a breakout and confirmation near $2,549.

6. How can traders tell whether the ETH pullback structure has failed?

The instructor treats the Fibonacci 0.618 level as an important structural dividing line. A decisive break below the key 0.618 area would indicate that the previous cost-basis structure and upward rhythm may have been damaged. If it holds and price forms another higher low, the bullish structure may continue.

7. How can traders participate in SOL?

One approach is to wait for price to return to $95–$96 and use a left-side setup after stabilization. The second is to wait for price to break the descending trendline and confirm the 1-2-3 pattern before using a right-side setup. Traders who already secured a favorable left-side cost basis may add in stages after right-side confirmation.

8. ZEC has already risen sharply. Why should traders not short it simply because it “has gone too high”?

The absolute price level does not determine the end of a trend. During a strong rally, short covering and liquidations create forced buying that can push price higher. Countertrend trades have a more reliable basis only after the trend structure breaks, key support fails, and clear weakness emerges.

9. What is the most important trading principle now?

Identify the trend first, then wait for the right location and structure. Do not force trades in the middle of a range, try to profit from both directions at once, or keep adding to a losing position. Add only after confirmation when the trade is working, and admit the mistake promptly and control the loss when it is not.

BTC Market Analysis

After a rapid earlier rally, BTC entered a pullback and sideways consolidation. The livestream chart showed clear buying support in the $74,000–$75,000 area, which is also near a key retracement level. The instructor’s earlier support call around $75,000 was validated, after which price recovered to above approximately $77,000.

From a wave-structure perspective, the instructor believes the upward impulse is not yet complete and that another impulsive wave may follow. However, the current price lies between left-side support and a right-side breakout, so opening either a long or short position now lacks an attractive risk-reward ratio.

The left-side plan is to wait for another rapid drop toward $75,800–$76,000 and look for a long opportunity alongside a double bottom, stabilization, or a lower-timeframe reversal signal. The right-side plan is to wait for an effective break of the descending trendline, followed by a higher high and a higher low, and then enter if the trendline or breakout level holds on a retest.

The medium-term upside target is around $87,500–$88,000, although several rounds of volatility may occur before price reaches it. If the $74,000 area is decisively broken and cannot be reclaimed on a rebound, the original bullish plan must be reassessed.

ETH Market Analysis

ETH has shown greater relative strength than BTC. Price rebounded quickly after falling to the key retracement area near $2,340, indicating buying support below. At the time of the livestream, price had recovered to around $2,440 but remained capped by the descending trendline and the previous-high resistance zone.

At this stage, ETH is between support and resistance and is not at an ideal entry point. On the left side, focus on the $2,340–$2,400 area; if price stabilizes after a retest, a clearly structured long setup may emerge. On the right side, focus on approximately $2,549; an effective breakout followed by a successful retest would indicate further structural strength.

The instructor also emphasized that the 0.618 retracement can serve as a “battle line” for judging whether the trend structure has failed. A decisive break below that level requires lowering bullish expectations. If price holds the key retracement zone and continues to form higher lows, the bullish bias remains valid.

SOL Market Analysis

After rising rapidly, SOL entered high-level consolidation. The chart formed a converging structure made up of a descending trendline and horizontal support. The earlier plan identified $95–$96 as an important pullback zone. The actual low was approximately $95.99, after which price rebounded.

There are two potential participation paths. The first is a small left-side position if price returns to $95–$96 and finds support. The second is to wait for price to break upward through the descending trendline, form a new high and a higher low, and then participate after a confirmed retest. A decisive break below support near $95 would require reassessing the bullish structure.

ZEC Market Analysis

ZEC was used in this session as an important example of trend-following and liquidity. The livestream reviewed the previous long setup near $1,060. The actual low was about $1,049, after which price rose significantly. The current chart shows that price has broken above the previous major resistance zone, with former resistance around $1,297–$1,300 becoming a new support area to watch.

If price retests $1,297–$1,300 and holds, the bullish structure can continue to be evaluated using the support-resistance flip. If price keeps rising without a pullback, traders should not short merely because the gain is large; they should wait for a signal that the trend has broken.

ZEC also shows how short liquidations in a strong market trigger forced buying, creating additional liquidity and pushing price higher. Direction should therefore be judged primarily from structure, trend, and liquidity rather than absolute price alone.

Macro Environment and Trading Methodology

The impact of an interest-rate decision cannot be judged only by the day of the announcement. Rate cuts or an accommodative environment lower funding costs and raise large institutions’ willingness to allocate to risk assets, but short-term prices may still move in the opposite direction when expectations were priced in beforehand. Traders must distinguish between the immediate news catalyst, short-term realization of expectations, and the long-term capital cycle.

In technical analysis, price is the foundation of every indicator. Indicators such as MACD must be interpreted in the context of location and the broader trend; golden crosses and death crosses above and below the zero line do not carry the same meaning. Fibonacci levels at 0.382, 0.5, and 0.618 can help distinguish strong pullbacks, normal pullbacks, and structural failure, but they should not be used independently of price action.

The core of left-side trading is to define a clear support zone and an acceptable invalidation point. The core of right-side trading is to wait for a breakout, a higher high and a higher low, and then enter after a confirmed retest. The two methods can be combined, but trades should never be chased without a valid location and structure.

Trading Strategy and Risk Notice

First, follow the higher-timeframe trend. Do not attempt to call a top simply because the short-term rise is large, and do not buy the dip unconditionally merely because price has fallen.

Second, reduce trading in the middle of a range or between support and resistance. Wait for price to reach a clear left-side zone or for a confirmed right-side breakout.

Third, do not keep adding to a losing position to lower the average cost. Increase the position in stages at new confirmation points only after the market has validated the direction and the existing position is profitable.

Fourth, control position size in high-volatility assets. SOL, ZEC, and similar assets are substantially more volatile than BTC and ETH. Stops should be based on structural invalidation rather than emotion or an improvised judgment.

Fifth, the price levels and directional views discussed in the livestream reflect the market conditions at that time and do not constitute any guarantee of returns. Actual trading decisions should be made independently based on real-time prices, personal risk tolerance, and capital management.

Livestream Resources and Participation

Users who have not joined the official KTX Lark group can scan the QR code in the upper-right corner or below the livestream. The group shares daily market views, livestream notifications, strategy reviews, and related activities.

KTX Features and Trading Tools

Readers can explore platform services through KTX Crypto and track the market with Real-Time Market Analysis, Latest Crypto Prices, Crypto Prices, and the AI Trading Signal Radar. BTC, ETH, and Ethereum Price data can be viewed through Spot Trading. Depending on their risk tolerance, users may also learn about BTC Futures, ETH Futures, and Perpetual Futures.

For strategy execution and education, users may access Copy Trading, Copy Trading services, Futures Copy Trading, and One-Click Copy Trading. “Principal-Protected Copy Trading” is only a page keyword and does not mean that principal or returns are guaranteed. Before trading, users should combine Position Analysis with Skills content and make independent risk judgments.

For on-chain research, users may refer to On-Chain Projects, Smart Money, Smart Money tools, the Meme Coin Movement Monitor, and Prediction Markets. Campaign and yield-related sections include Launchpool, APY, the Rewards Center, and Rewards Hub. More course content is available from KTX Crypto Academy.

Core Conclusion

The core of this livestream was not to predict an exact market top, but to establish executable trading rules. The broader direction for BTC, ETH, SOL, and ZEC remains bullish, but each asset requires patience for the right location: for BTC, watch support at $74,000–$76,000 and a break of the descending trendline; for ETH, watch buying support at $2,340–$2,400 and right-side confirmation at $2,549; for SOL, watch support at $95–$96; and for ZEC, watch the support-resistance flip at $1,297–$1,300.

Until these conditions appear, patience itself is part of trading. After entry, add when the trade is right and stop out when it is wrong, using trend, structure, and risk-reward as the final basis for decisions.