The Federal Reserve has raised rates again, putting renewed macro pressure on the crypto market.
On September 16, 2026, the Federal Reserve announced a 25-basis-point rate hike, raising the federal funds target range to 3.75%–4.00%. This marked Kevin Warsh’s first rate hike as Fed Chair.
The initial market reaction was relatively calm because the 25-basis-point move was largely expected.
However, as Warsh emphasized that inflation remains too high and underlying inflation has not improved enough, market sentiment weakened. U.S. Treasury yields moved higher, while BTC also came under renewed pressure.
The key question now is:
If high oil prices and high interest rates persist at the same time, what does that mean for Bitcoin?
Why Was This Rate Hike Still Considered Hawkish?
The 25-basis-point hike itself was not a major surprise.
What mattered more was the Fed’s message about future policy.
Warsh emphasized that inflation remains elevated and that recent data has not shown a clear enough improvement in underlying inflation.
Simply put:
The market is not only concerned about this rate hike, but about how long high interest rates may remain in place.
For risk assets such as BTC, prolonged high rates mean higher funding costs, while the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields may become more attractive.
That is why both U.S. equities and the crypto market came under pressure as the Fed’s message turned more hawkish.
Why Do the Strait of Hormuz and Oil Prices Matter for Rate Policy?
Another challenge facing the Fed is energy prices.
Geopolitical risks surrounding the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz continue to affect expectations for global oil supply, while oil prices have recently moved above $100 per barrel.
Higher oil prices can push inflation higher through transportation, manufacturing, and consumer costs.
Therefore:
The harder it is for oil prices to fall, the harder it may be for the Fed to quickly end its tightening cycle.
This is why the market is now watching the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices, and Fed policy at the same time.
However, the original post’s comparison that the Fed is using rate hikes to “warn Iran” is the author’s personal analogy and does not represent official Fed policy.
Why Is the Bank of Japan Also Important?
After the Fed, the market’s next major focus is the Bank of Japan.
The market currently expects the BOJ to raise rates by another 25 basis points, potentially bringing the policy rate to 1.25%.
This also matters for the crypto market.
For many years, Japan’s low-rate environment provided access to relatively cheap funding.
If Japanese interest rates continue to rise, yen funding costs may increase, which could pressure some trades that rely on low-cost yen financing.
As a result, the market is currently facing a combination of:
A hawkish Fed + BOJ rate-hike expectations + high oil prices
These macro factors could continue to increase volatility in BTC and other risk assets.
KTX Crypto View: What Should Bitcoin Traders Watch Next?
For KTX Crypto, the more important issue is not predicting BTC’s exact short-term price, but observing whether macro pressure continues to affect capital flows and leverage.
Several indicators are worth watching:
Fed Rate Expectations → Treasury Yields → U.S. Dollar → BTC Price → Futures Open Interest → Liquidations → ETF Flows
If rates continue to rise while ETF outflows increase and leverage declines, BTC may remain under short-term pressure.
On the other hand, if BTC remains structurally stable despite negative macro conditions, it may suggest that part of the rate-hike risk has already been priced in.
Users can monitor BTC, ETH, and other major assets through the KTX Market, together with market sentiment, futures open interest, liquidation data, and BTC ETF flows.
Users who want to explore the market further can also visit the KTX Official Website to access spot trading, USDT perpetual contracts, and other trading products.
When using leveraged products such as perpetual contracts, traders should pay additional attention to margin requirements, funding rates, and liquidation risk.
FAQ
How much did the Fed raise rates this time?
The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points, bringing the federal funds target range to 3.75%–4.00%.
Could the Fed raise rates again this year?
Further tightening remains possible. The timing will depend on inflation, economic data, and financial conditions.
Could the Bank of Japan also raise rates?
The market currently expects the BOJ to raise rates by another 25 basis points, potentially taking the policy rate to 1.25%.
Do rate hikes always cause Bitcoin to fall?
No. Interest rates are only one factor affecting BTC. Investors should also monitor the U.S. dollar, Treasury yields, ETF flows, leverage, and overall market sentiment.
Conclusion
The most important part of this Fed decision is not just the 25-basis-point hike itself.
It is:
How long the global high-rate environment may continue.
Higher oil prices increase the risk of renewed inflation, the Fed remains relatively hawkish, and the Bank of Japan may also continue tightening monetary policy.
For Bitcoin, this means the short-term macro liquidity environment remains challenging.
The next key issue is:
Whether BTC can remain stable after the BOJ decision, and whether ETF flows and market leverage deteriorate further.
Rather than focusing on one central bank decision alone, investors should evaluate interest rates, the U.S. dollar, capital flows, and BTC’s own price structure together.
Original Post
The decision is in. The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points, but it may not be over yet. The Bank of Japan is also likely to raise rates by 25 basis points on Friday.
Based on the latest policy outlook, the Fed may still have room for further rate hikes, while Japan could also continue tightening later this year.
In my view, both the Fed and Warsh were fairly hawkish today.
When the 25-basis-point hike was first announced, markets were still rising because the move was largely expected. But as Warsh continued speaking, both U.S. stocks and BTC moved lower.
I originally planned to buy Bitcoin around $72,000, but with the Bank of Japan decision still coming on Friday, I decided to wait until market sentiment stabilizes.
The original author’s views on future rate hikes, BTC entry levels, and market direction represent personal opinions and do not imply certain future market outcomes.
Risk Warning: The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile. This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.