This BTC rally has shown an on-chain pattern that looks quite different from the previous two rebounds:
While prices were rising, large holders did not noticeably reduce their positions. Instead, they showed net accumulation.
When BTC rebounded to around $97,000 in January and around $82,000 in May, the indicator remained relatively low, suggesting that large entities were more inclined to reduce exposure or were not actively accumulating.
By contrast, during the latest move from roughly $60,000 to around $80,000, the indicator moved higher. The original author therefore argues that the on-chain capital structure behind this rally looks healthier than during the previous two rebounds.
But the most important question is not simply:
“Whales are buying, so BTC must keep rising.”
The real question is:
When price rises, is large capital absorbing supply, or using the strength to sell?
What Is the BTC Accumulation Trend Score?
Glassnode defines the Accumulation Trend Score as an indicator used to measure whether on-chain entities are accumulating BTC.
It mainly combines two factors:
Entity size + balance changes over the past month
The larger the BTC holdings of an entity, the greater its weighting. The model also tracks whether these entities are increasing or decreasing their BTC balances. Miners and exchanges are excluded.
The score ranges from 0 to 1:
Closer to 1 → larger entities are generally accumulating
Closer to 0 → larger entities are distributing or showing little accumulation
Therefore, the main value of this indicator is not to directly predict whether BTC will rise or fall.
Instead, it helps answer:
Is the behavior of large capital behind a rally healthy?
Glassnode has also noted that sustained price trends often interact with on-chain accumulation and distribution behavior, with larger entities carrying greater weight.
Why Is This Really Different From the Previous Two?
According to the original author’s interpretation of the chart, BTC has experienced three major rebounds this year.
When BTC rose to around $97,000 in January, the Accumulation Trend Score remained low.
When BTC rebounded to around $82,000 in May, the score was also low.
This suggests that during those rallies, large holders were not increasing their BTC balances. Instead, their behavior was closer to distribution or waiting on the sidelines.
That structure looks more like:
Price rises → short-term capital enters → whales reduce exposure into strength
By contrast, during the latest move from around $60,000 to $80,000, the Accumulation Trend Score increased significantly.
In other words:
Price rises + whales accumulate at the same time
From an on-chain structure perspective, this is more constructive than a rally where price rises while whales distribute.
However, this still does not prove that BTC has entered a new major bull-market leg.
The Accumulation Trend Score reflects on-chain behavior over the previous 30 days, not future price direction.
A high score can show that large entities have recently been increasing balances, but it does not prevent them from reducing exposure later.
Why Was the 2023 Rebound Different?
The original author also compares the current market with late 2022 and early 2023.
After the FTX collapse, BTC showed significant accumulation of around $16,000.
However, when prices began rising in January 2023, the Accumulation Trend Score weakened.
This suggests:
Whales may have accumulated near the bottom, but once prices started rising, they either stopped buying or began realizing some profits.
The key difference this time is that large-holder accumulation did not immediately disappear as BTC moved higher.
That does not mean:
“This time must be a bull market.”
But it does suggest that:
Similar price paths can be driven by very different capital structures.
If investors only look at candlestick charts, both periods could easily be labeled “bear-market rebounds.”
On-chain data adds another layer by helping reveal who may actually be driving the move.
KTX Crypto View: What Else Should Be Watched to Judge Rally Quality?
For KTX Crypto, the BTC Accumulation Trend Score is better used as a rally-quality indicator rather than a standalone trading signal.
First, watch whether whale accumulation can continue.
If BTC keeps rising but the Accumulation Trend Score falls quickly, it may suggest that large holders are beginning to reduce exposure.
Second, watch spot volume and ETF flows.
If whale accumulation, spot trading activity, and ETF inflows all strengthen together, the funding base behind the rally becomes more convincing.
For users who want to further track BTC derivatives, KTX currently offers the BTCUSDT USDT-Margined Perpetual Contract. According to KTX’s official product description, it uses USDT as the margin and settlement currency and does not have a traditional futures expiration date.
On-chain whale accumulation does not mean it is appropriate to chase the market with leverage.
Perpetual futures can magnify both potential profits and losses and involve margin, funding-rate, and liquidation risks. KTX’s BTCUSDT product is a USDT-margined perpetual derivatives contract.
What Should Be Watched Next?
There are three key developments to monitor in the current BTC rally.
First, whether the Accumulation Trend Score remains elevated.
If BTC continues rising while large entities keep increasing balances, it suggests that major holders have not clearly shifted into distribution.
Second, whether the rally receives stronger confirmation from spot capital.
If price gains are mainly driven by short covering and high leverage, the move may be less sustainable than one supported by spot buying, ETF inflows, and on-chain accumulation.
Finally, watch when whales stop accumulating.
The most important question is often not:
“Have whales already bought?”
It is:
When do they stop buying, or even start selling?
That may be more useful than trying to guess an exact market top.
FAQ
What is the BTC Accumulation Trend Score?
It is a Glassnode indicator designed to measure whether larger on-chain entities are accumulating BTC. It combines entity balance size with balance changes over the previous month and excludes miners and exchanges.
What does a score close to 1 mean?
It generally means that larger entities, or a significant portion of the network, are accumulating BTC. A score closer to 0 suggests distribution or a lack of meaningful accumulation.
Does whale accumulation mean BTC has already bottomed?
No. The indicator only describes recent on-chain accumulation behavior. It cannot confirm an exact bottom or predict future price direction on its own.
Why is it more meaningful when price rises while whales accumulate?
Because it suggests that large entities are still increasing BTC balances during the rally. Compared with a structure where price rises while whales distribute, this may indicate healthier capital support.
Can KTX be used to monitor the BTC market?
Yes. KTX’s Chinese site provides market data and BTCUSDT perpetual products. Perpetual futures are derivatives and have a different risk structure from directly holding BTC.
Conclusion
The most notable feature of this BTC rally is not simply that price moved from around $60,000 to $80,000.
The more important point is:
Whales did not appear to shift into clear distribution during the rally as they did in the previous two rebounds.
The Glassnode Accumulation Trend Score reflects the balance behavior of large on-chain entities over the previous 30 days and can help investors assess whether the funding structure behind a rally looks healthier.
But:“Whales are accumulating” does not automatically mean “the bull market is confirmed.”
A more complete framework still needs to be combined:
So the real value of this indicator is not that it provides a simple “buy button.”
It provides a more useful question:
When BTC is rising, is large capital actually buying—or or selling?
Original Post
An Unusual Behavior During the Rally: Whales Did Not Sell Into Strength
— Writing a long post over the weekend... not sure whether you guys even want to read it. I also wanted to keep it shorter, but then the logic would not be clear. Anyway, I already wrote it, so here it is.
The “BTC on-chain Accumulation Trend Score” measures the direction of large on-chain entities over the past 30 days—whether they are net accumulating or net distributing.
The calculation has two layers.
First, entities are weighted by size. The larger the entity, the greater the weight, while miners and exchanges are excluded.
Second, the model looks at net balance changes. Accumulation receives a higher score, while distribution receives a lower score. These two factors are combined to produce a score between 0 and 1.
Because of this structure, the indicator is heavily weighted toward whales.
A score close to 1—shown in black—can basically be interpreted as entities holding thousands or tens of thousands of BTC accumulating.
A score close to 0—shown in yellow—usually means one of two things: whales are distributing, or whales are simply staying on the sidelines.
👉 Now that we understand the calculation logic, let’s compare the data:
When BTC rallied toward $97,000 in January and $82,000 in May, the indicator stayed yellow, suggesting that whales were net sellers while price was rebounding.
This is a classic bear-market rebound structure.
Price is pushed higher by short covering and short-term capital, while whales use the rebound to sell. Without enough follow-through demand, the rally eventually ends.
But during this move from around $60,000 to $80,000, the indicator turned black, meaning whales were net buyers over the previous 30 days.
Among the three rallies, this is the first time we have seen price rise while whales were simultaneously accumulating.
Of course, whale accumulation does not mean this must be the bottom, nor does it mean a trend reversal is guaranteed.
But at the very least, it suggests that the structure of this rally is relatively healthy.
Usually, this kind of structure—price rising while whales accumulate—is more common during the main advance phase of a bull market.
The bottom of the previous bear market did not have exactly the same structure.
After the FTX collapse in November 2022, the indicator was dark around $16,000, suggesting accumulation near the lows.
But during the January 2023 rally, it turned yellow.
In other words, whales bought near the bottom, but once prices started rising, they either realized some profits or at least stopped accumulating.
So why did BTC rise in January?
I think three forces were probably driving it:
derivatives short covering, a shift in macro expectations, and the extremely thin liquidity after FTX, which amplified price elasticity.
Smaller investors may also have been accumulating, but their behavior is not clearly reflected in this chart.
By comparing the two periods, we can see that January 2023 and August 2026 are fundamentally different. The price paths look similar, but the on-chain capital structures are not the same.
One last point: there is a reason Glassnode places this data under T2 access.
By itself, it cannot tell you whether the price will rise or fall.
But it can help measure whether the structure of a rally is healthy.
That can be very useful for understanding trend formation and building confidence.
Risk Disclosure: Cryptocurrency and derivatives markets can experience significant volatility. On-chain data can help investors analyze market structure, but it cannot independently predict future BTC prices. This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.
