Summary
The market is focusing on a new potential variable surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian oil exports: compared to a "full blockade," Iran may adopt a more selective passage arrangement, gradually opening to countries that do not participate in military actions or economic sanctions against Iran.
If this pattern expands further, allowing countries such as China, India, and Iraq relatively stable oil transportation channels, the global oil supply recovery may not have to fully wait for an easing of US-Iran relations. The "full blockade of Hormuz" risk premium previously factored into oil prices may also continue to decline as a result.
KTX Crypto Portfolio Observation
For the KTX Crypto portfolio, the core of this community perspective is not simply to judge "oil price rises or falls," but to observe whether the pricing logic of geopolitical conflict is shifting from a full blockade to selective opening:
- The Hormuz risk premium may decline: If some countries regain stable passage, extreme supply disruption expectations will be repriced.
- Lower oil prices help ease inflation pressure: Falling energy prices may improve inflation expectations in the US and globally, indirectly influencing Federal Reserve policy pricing.
- China-Iran cooperation becomes an important variable: The original text believes China’s cooperation with Iran will continue, and it remains to be seen whether the US will impose tariffs or other economic measures.
- Portfolio execution focuses on the "oil price—inflation—interest rates—risk assets" chain: If the crude oil risk premium continues to fall, further observation is needed on whether US Treasury yields, the US dollar, and risk assets like BTC will benefit.
Original Text Included
From the current information, Trump’s so-called "economic exile action" has not achieved the expected effect. Today, China publicly stated again that its cooperation with Iran is conducted within the framework of international law and should not be interfered with, emphasizing that it will take all necessary measures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests.
Although China’s stance is relatively tough, the US has not yet responded further, and previously feared new tariffs on China have not yet been implemented.
Meanwhile, oil prices have fallen. However, the original author believes that the more noteworthy reason for the oil price weakness is not US pressure but the market beginning to realize that Iran may gradually open the Strait of Hormuz to some non-hostile countries.
This makes the previously discussed "selective opening of Hormuz" increasingly close to reality.
According to this logic, countries including Iraq, China, India, and others that have not participated in military actions or economic sanctions against Iran may receive similar passage arrangements; while the US, Israel, and countries identified by Iran as hostile actors may continue to face restrictions.
If this pattern expands further, the global oil supply recovery may not need to wait for the US and Iran to reach a new peace agreement.
Persian Gulf oil can gradually re-enter the global market, and the war risk premium previously factored into oil prices due to fears of a full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz may also continue to decline.
This creates a somewhat delicate situation: falling oil prices themselves align with US interests because they help ease US gasoline prices and inflation pressure; but if the core reason driving oil prices down is Iran’s proactive adjustment of Hormuz passage policy, then market judgments about the effectiveness of US sanctions and dominance over Middle East affairs may also change accordingly.
For trading, what truly deserves attention going forward is not a single political statement but the actual passage situation in the Strait of Hormuz, changes in Iranian crude exports, and whether the war premium in oil prices continues to fade.
Original Author: Phyrex
X Account: @PhyrexNi
Original Link: https://x.com/PhyrexNi/status/2092322478202999124
Risk Warning: This article is a community viewpoint collection and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR.