Summary

BTC's recent price performance once again reflects the impact of chip structure on short-term supply and demand. Previously, a chip concentration zone of over 2 million BTC was cumulatively formed in the $62,000–$64,000 range, with a large amount of chips turning over at similar prices, causing holding costs to converge.

This also explains why BTC showed strong resilience despite negative disturbances such as US stock market corrections, corporate selling, and oil price rebounds: the chips in the cost concentration zone did not significantly loosen, and the supply side lacked sustained selling pressure.

Subsequently, after nearly two months of low-volatility sideways trading, BTC rapidly rose from about $64,000 to $75,000 in a short time. Meanwhile, the core chip bar around $63,000 changed little, and the chip distribution in the $68,000–$74,000 range remained relatively sparse, indicating insufficient turnover during the rally.

Therefore, what is noteworthy about this round of market movement is not just an increase in demand, but that: when selling is insufficient and upper chips are sparse, even marginal buying pressure that is not extreme can drive prices rapidly upward.

KTX Crypto Portfolio Observation

For the KTX Crypto portfolio, this community viewpoint belongs to the category of **“supply and demand signals driven by chip structure.”** The focus is not on predicting price rises or falls based on a single chip indicator, but on observing whether the core cost zone can continue to limit supply release:

• Core chip zone formed at $62,000–$64,000: Over 2 million BTC concentrated turnover makes this area an important cost and potential support zone.
• Lack of sustained selling pressure during decline: When holding costs are close and chips are relatively stable, even if demand is weak, as long as supply is not obviously released, downward price space may be limited.
• Sparse upper chips amplify upward elasticity: With less turnover in the $68,000–$74,000 range, insufficient supply above may allow marginal buying to have a more significant impact on price.
• Watch for chip loosening after rapid rise: As prices rise, profit-taking may gradually occur and form new chip concentration zones, and the market may shift from a sharp rise to sideways or pullback.
• Portfolio execution: Focus on whether new chip concentration zones can form; if prices fall back, continue to track whether the core chip zone at $62,000–$63,000 remains stable. Do not rely solely on historical cycles to infer that it will definitely not break.

Original Text Included

The supply and demand relationship in chip structure — Review + Future Projection

A month ago, amid US stock market corrections, MicroStrategy selling BTC, and oil price rebounds, why did BTC not show a significant decline despite these negative factors?

The core reason may not just be macro factors, but that the chip structure limited short-term downward momentum.

Previously, BTC cumulatively formed a chip concentration zone of over 2 million BTC in the $62,000–$64,000 range. A large amount of chips turned over in a short period, making the costs of this group of holders very close.

To give a simple example:

If an investor buys BTC near $62,000, they may not immediately choose to sell when the price briefly drops to $58,000.

When many investors have similar cost levels, the market may form a special structure:

Although the price falls, the chips willing to be actively sold do not increase correspondingly.

Therefore, even if macro liquidity tightens and market demand is weak, as long as the supply side does not continuously release, the momentum for prices to continue downward will be limited.

Afterward, BTC experienced nearly two months of low-volatility sideways trading, then rapidly rose from about $64,000 to $75,000 in just a few days.

Clues about this rally can also be found in the chip structure.

During the rise, the chip bar near $63,000 did not show a significant decrease, meaning the previously formed core chips were not largely realized.

At the same time, the chip distribution in the $68,000–$74,000 range remains relatively sparse.

This may indicate two points:

First, the price rose quickly without enough turnover time in between, making it difficult for some funds that had not previously entered positions to obtain ideal costs along the way.

Second, low-level chips did not exit massively due to the rapid rise, so the BTC available for sale in the short term remains limited.

This is the most direct reflection of chip structure's impact on price:

When selling pressure is low enough, extremely strong buying power is not necessarily required; marginal demand can drive prices up rapidly.

Essentially, price ultimately depends on supply and demand, and chip distribution helps observe where supply is concentrated and whether these chips are moving.

Several observations for future structure

Rapid rallies are usually difficult to sustain long-term. As prices rise further, floating profits of low-level chips increase, and some holders may start taking profits.

Once chips begin to loosen, the market may shift from rapid rise to sideways or even pullback, completing turnover again at higher price levels to form new chip concentration zones.

If new cost zones form smoothly and low-level chips remain stable, the overall market cost center may further shift upward.

Conversely, if no new effective support forms after the rise, the market may retest the original chip concentration zone near $62,000–$63,000.

At that time, what is truly worth observing is not “whether the price will definitely fall back,” but:

Whether the core chips continue to hold firmly, and whether the original cost concentration zone can absorb selling pressure again.

Therefore, rather than prematurely predicting where BTC will definitely rise to or fall to $40,000 or even $30,000, it is better to continuously track chip migration.

If chips do not loosen, the supply side remains resilient; only when chips begin large-scale migration can the market’s supply and demand balance truly change.

Original Author: Murphy

X Account: @Murphychen888

Original Link: https://x.com/Murphychen888/status/2090635960509989300 

Risk Warning: This article is a community viewpoint collection and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR (Do Your Own Research).