Summary

There is a clear layering of cost bands among BTC holders of different sizes: the group holding 100–1,000 BTC has a cost basis of about $66,700, the 1,000–10,000 BTC group around $61,200, and the 10,000–100,000 BTC group around $53,500.

Currently, BTC is still operating between the main cost bands and has not effectively broken below the cost floor of $53,500, which belongs to the large holding group.

From a historical cycle perspective, the bottoms of the previous two bear markets both appeared after the price fell below the whale cost bands. Therefore, if BTC effectively breaks below $53,500 in this cycle, it may indicate the market entering a deeper risk-release phase.

However, this does not mean that breaking below the cost band will necessarily form a bear market bottom; what is more important is to establish trading plans for different scenarios in advance, rather than predicting a single price point.

KTX Crypto Portfolio Insights

For the KTX Crypto portfolio, this community viewpoint falls under "Large Holding Cost and Potential Bottom Range Observation". The focus is not on predicting whether BTC will definitely break below $53,500, but rather on observing how the cost structure of different holding groups influences the market:

• Cost bands step down progressively: The cost bases for the 100–1,000 BTC, 1,000–10,000 BTC, and 10,000–100,000 BTC groups are approximately $66,700, $61,200, and $53,500 respectively.
• Mid-sized holdings are more valuable as references: The 1,000–10,000 BTC group is relatively closer to real individual investors, while ultra-large holdings may include exchanges, custodians, and funds.
• $53,500 is a key observation point: If BTC consistently remains above the cost basis of large holders, the market structure may still maintain some resilience.
• Be cautious of risk release if cost band is broken: If BTC effectively breaks below $53,500 later, attention should be paid to whether there is large-scale on-chain transfers, panic selling pressure, and increased trading volume.
• Portfolio execution: Avoid predicting a single direction; instead, prepare response plans for different scenarios in advance, and confirm with price structure, volume, ETF funds, and on-chain data.

Original Text

Where are the holding costs of BTC high-net-worth users?

For the holding costs of BTC high-net-worth users, three main groups can be observed:

1. Holding 100–1,000 BTC: about $66,700

2. Holding 1,000–10,000 BTC: about $61,200

3. Holding 10,000–100,000 BTC: about $53,500

Among these, the mid-sized holding group is relatively more valuable as a reference because its structure is closer to real individual investors.

Ultra-large holdings may also include exchanges, third-party custodians, and hedge funds, so interpretation requires caution.

Currently, BTC is operating right between these cost bands, with the price still near the cost area of holders with less than 10,000 BTC, and has not yet broken below the cost band floor.

When looking at historical cycles, the current market position shares some similarity with the period from June to October 2022.

In the past two cycles, bear market bottoms appeared after BTC broke below the whale cost bands.

Therefore, if BTC effectively breaks below $53,500 in this round, it could become a market signal worthy of close attention.

But it is important to emphasize:

Breaking below the cost band does not mean this cycle will necessarily repeat history.

The truly important thing in the market is not to predict a single outcome, but to have different outcomes incorporated into your trading plan.

Do not predict, just respond.

This may be more important than simply looking for "where the bottom is."

Original Author: Murphy

X Account: @Murphychen888

Original Link: https://x.com/Murphychen888/status/2089627844167245899 

Risk Disclaimer: This article is a community viewpoint collection and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR.