Summary

The on-chain token structure of ETH has shown notable changes: approximately 13 million ETH are concentrated in the $2,700–2,800 range, accounting for over 10% of circulating supply, and this portion of tokens is currently at a significant unrealized loss, yet migration activity is inactive.

Based on URPD, holding costs, and on-chain migration direction, this token cluster is likely mainly related to large entities such as BitMine, ETF holdings, and on-chain staking, reflecting further concentration of ETH supply.

This structure may imply that during a downtrend, a large amount of tokens are locked, resulting in relatively limited potential selling pressure; however, if ETH returns to the $2,700–2,800 cost-intensive zone in the future, this portion of tokens could also become significant unlocking pressure and temporary resistance.

KTX Crypto Portfolio Observation

For the KTX Crypto portfolio, this community viewpoint is most notable for the "two-way impact of ETH supply concentration". The focus is not simply on judging positive or negative outcomes, but on observing how token concentration affects market liquidity:

• High token concentration: About 13 million ETH are in the $2,700–2,800 range, with high cost density, representing an important on-chain price area.
• Limited selling pressure during downtrends: A large amount of ETH is staked or held long-term, which may not convert into actual selling in the short term, helping reduce downward liquidity pressure.
• Increased concentration among large holders: If large institutions and entities continue to increase holdings, the circulating ETH supply will further decrease, potentially heightening market sensitivity to marginal funds.
• Cost zone also acts as resistance: When ETH returns to the $2,700–2,800 range, unrealized loss tokens may start unlocking or reducing positions, so caution is needed regarding supply being released again.
• Portfolio execution: Focus can be placed on tracking volume, on-chain transfers, net exchange inflows, and changes in large holder positions within this cost zone to determine whether "token lockup" continues and whether the cost-dense zone can shift from resistance to support.

Original Text Included

ETH Data Part 2: Token Structure Breakdown

ETH’s URPD data shows a very prominent token concentration band in the $2,700–2,800 range, with three bars totaling about 13 million ETH, accounting for over 10% of current circulating supply.

More notably, this portion of tokens is currently at about a 40% unrealized loss but shows almost no significant movement.

It should be noted that ETH’s URPD is calculated based on the account model, and Glassnode calculates weighted average costs according to the overall balance of entities.

For example, BitMine held about 4.32 million ETH in February with an average cost around $3,100; by August, it further increased holdings by about 1.48 million ETH, with the new position cost roughly in the $1,500–2,200 range. After merging these holdings, the weighted average cost is around $2,700.

From the perspectives of holding scale, cost position, and on-chain migration direction, the main entity in this token cluster is very likely strongly associated with BitMine, though other entities clustered on-chain cannot be excluded.

Additionally, this zone may be related to two factors:

First, a dense trading area formed in January this year; second, a large amount of ETH is staked on-chain.

Combined with the previous record high of ETH’s Herfindahl index, it is evident that ETH’s supply concentration is further increasing.

Therefore, this token cluster is likely related to BitMine, large institutions/ETF holdings, and on-chain staking.

The direct impact of this structure is:

When ETH declines, a large amount of tokens are locked and will not easily convert into market selling pressure in the short term.

This implies some resilience on the supply side.

Conversely, when ETH rises again and returns to the $2,700–2,800 cost-dense area, the situation may change.

At that time, it is necessary to observe whether these unrealized loss tokens remain firmly held.

If holdings remain stable, the cost-dense zone may gradually become support; but if a large amount of tokens start moving and realizing gains, it could form significant unlocking selling pressure, limiting further ETH upside.

Thus, the true significance of this token range is not just "support" or "resistance," but rather:

It is becoming an important price band for observing changes in ETH supply structure and market consensus.

Original Author: Murphy

X Account: @Murphychen888

Original Link: https://x.com/Murphychen888/status/2088847209932665275 

Risk Disclaimer: This article is a community viewpoint collection and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR.