Summary
Among BTC short-term holders (STH), chips held for less than 3 months (<3m) are forming a clear low-turnover structure. Currently, the <3m-RP is about $67,900. BTC has repeatedly bounced close to this area but has not effectively broken through, and the slope of the cost curve has also approached zero, indicating a decline in short-term chip participation and that the market has entered a low-activity state.
This structure bears some similarity to the end stages of the 2018 and 2022 bear markets: prices are suppressed long-term by short-term holders’ cost lines, the market appears calm on the surface, but internal fragility continues to accumulate. Once an external catalyst emerges, this fragile equilibrium may be quickly broken.
Current Market: The Game Between Chips, Macro, and Capital Flows
At present, BTC seems to be in a phase of “low turnover + low volatility + waiting for a catalyst.”
On one hand, the US July CPI year-over-year is 3.4%, a slight decline from the previous month, easing inflation pressures marginally; on the other hand, the market remains highly focused on the PPI and the subsequent Federal Reserve interest rate path. Meanwhile, BTC ETF capital flows remain volatile, without forming a sustained one-sided trend.
Therefore, the current market can be summarized as:
Price lacks a breakout → short-term chip turnover declines → ETF capital fluctuates → macro waits for catalyst.
The real focus is not whether BTC will immediately rise or fall, but rather what factor will become the “trigger” to break the current fragile balance.
KTX Crypto Portfolio Observations
For the KTX Crypto portfolio, the community viewpoint here is especially worth noting:
“Short-term chips form key resistance + market volatility compresses + macro catalysts are awaited.”
The key is not to predict the direction of the next candlestick, but to identify whether the market is entering a high sensitivity, low liquidity, high potential volatility phase.
1. <3m-RP may become a key phase resistance
Currently, the <3m-RP is about $67,900.
This level’s significance is more than just a technical line.
For funds that previously established positions at higher price levels and then entered short-term holding status, when the price approaches the cost range again, some holders might choose to:
- Exit at breakeven;
- Reduce their positions;
- Lock in small profits;
- Wait for further price confirmation.
Therefore, if BTC approaches $67,900 again, volume and chip transfer activity will be more important than simply the price touching that level.
If a breakout with strong volume occurs and stable trading above the cost line is established, this resistance line could potentially turn into support.
2. Curve slope approaching zero: market is entering a low turnover phase
The <3m-RP curve continues to flatten, essentially indicating:
New short-term chips are decreasing.
This does not necessarily mean the market is bearish.
More precisely, it reflects:
Market participants are reducing active trading, and the speed of new cost redistribution is slowing down.
This state usually does not persist permanently in trending markets.
When chip turnover falls to a certain level, as soon as new capital, macro policies, ETF flows, or sudden events appear, the market can quickly shift from low volatility to high volatility.
So, “low turnover” itself is not a directional indicator but a volatility potential indicator.
3. Historical similar structures are worth attention but should not be mechanically compared
Similar short-term holder cost suppression appeared at the end of the 2018 and 2022 bear markets.
But it is important to note:
Historical structural similarity ≠ historical outcome will definitely repeat.
In 2018, there was the BCH hash war and other major events; in 2022, the market was impacted by the FTX collapse and other black swan events.
Therefore, historical cases do not predict “BTC will definitely crash again,” but rather provide a more important observation framework:
When prices are suppressed long-term by a certain cost structure, the market may enter a fragile equilibrium; once a sufficiently strong external shock occurs, volatility may be rapidly repriced.
4. What is truly lacking now is a “trigger”
This may be the most noteworthy point in the current market.
BTC is not currently fully in a typical one-sided risk release phase.
Instead, the market seems to be in a combination state of:
Price oscillation + short-term chip sedimentation + declining turnover rate + macro waiting + ETF capital fluctuations
Recently, US inflation data has cooled somewhat, but the market is still waiting for further producer inflation data and Federal Reserve policy signals, so no clear one-way macro driver has formed for the time being.
This means the market needs a new variable.
This variable could come from:
- Changes in Federal Reserve policy expectations;
- US inflation data exceeding expectations;
- Sustained net inflows/outflows in BTC ETF capital;
- Rapid changes in the US dollar and US Treasury yields;
- Large-scale entry of institutional or corporate funds;
- BTC breaking through key cost areas;
- Or new sudden risk events.
Once a trigger appears, the current low-turnover structure may instead amplify price volatility.
Original Text Included
<3 months BTC chips are losing activity, $67,900 becomes key resistance
BTC held for less than 3 months belongs to relatively neutral chips among all short-term holders (STH).
They are neither very active nor very firm.
Especially at the end of a bear market, the participation of this type of chip usually decreases, so the slope of the cost curve gradually flattens from initially steep.
During market rebounds, when the price returns near the cost of these chips, it often triggers more selling.
Therefore, this cost line itself forms an important potential resistance level.
As is the case now, the <3m-RP cost line is approximately at $67,900.
BTC has been rebounding since June 20, with prices gradually approaching this level, but has been suppressed since, lasting nearly two months.
More notably:
The slope of this cost curve is now almost zero.
This means turnover in the market is increasingly low.
Interestingly, similar structures appeared at the end of the 2018 and 2022 bear markets.
From August to November 2018, BTC prices were continuously suppressed by <3m-RP for about 3 months.
From August to November 2022, a similar duration occurred.
After these two phases, the market experienced external events that broke the original balance:
In 2018, the BCH hash war;
In 2022, the FTX collapse.
Although the nature of these events was completely different, they share one common point:
Both occurred at the end of bear markets and ultimately broke the fragile market balance.
This shows that long-term suppression by <3m-RP is essentially a structural fragility.
The market itself may lack sufficient directionality, with chips, sentiment, and prices all in a low-activity fragile equilibrium.
Once external forces push, this balance may be quickly broken.
Either upward or downward.
Right now, we seem to be in such a stage:
Risks are continuously accumulating, but the market still lacks a true “trigger.”
So, what is truly worth watching may not be when the market will immediately pick a direction, but rather:
How much longer can this fragile balance last?
If BTC can effectively break through the <3m-RP cost line near $67,900 and form support, the current suppression structure may begin to loosen.
Conversely, if the price continues to fail to break through for a long time, or new external shocks occur, the previously accumulated fragility may quickly turn into greater volatility.
The current market feels like it is being constantly tormented.
Risks are accumulating, volatility is compressing, and the real trigger has yet to appear.
Original Author: Murphy
X Account: @Murphychen888
Original Link: https://x.com/Murphychen888/status/2087748490914935281
Risk Disclaimer: This article is a community viewpoint collection and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR (Do Your Own Research).