KTX Crypto Portfolio Observation

For the KTX Crypto portfolio, this community viewpoint belongs to the category of a "low volatility bottoming structure signal". The focus is not on judging whether BTC has confirmed its bottom, but on observing whether the current market is digesting selling pressure over time:

• Low volatility environment: The 1-month realized volatility has been continuously contracting, indicating that short-term panic selling pressure is not obvious and the market may be in a phase of slow chip rotation.
• Cost concentration: PSIP is about 55%, with prices near the cost area of many market participants, indicating a significant chip game in the current region.
• Different from historical bottoms: The bottoms of the past three cycles were accompanied by high volatility and concentrated capitulation; this cycle has not yet shown similar "pain bottom" characteristics.
• Need to guard against volatility release: Low volatility often means the market may be brewing a new directional choice. If a subsequent downward breakout occurs with a rapid rise in volatility, it may evolve back into a traditional capitulation bottom.
• Portfolio execution: This can be included as an indicator for "bottoming/supply-side digestion" observation, but reversal should not be confirmed solely by low volatility. It still requires comprehensive judgment combined with price structure, volume, ETF fund flows, on-chain chips, and macro liquidity indicators.

Original Text Included

Could this BTC bottom be different from all previous ones?

The current market debate about BTC’s bottom is all reflected in this chart.

This chart places every day since 2015 onto a two-dimensional coordinate system.

The horizontal axis is Profit Share in Profit (PSIP), measuring whether the market is currently cheap or expensive; the vertical axis is 1-month realized volatility, measuring whether the market is intense or calm.

The dashed lines divide the entire plane into four quadrants:

• Upper left: Cheap and intense
• Lower left: Cheap and quiet
• Upper right: Expensive and intense
• Lower right: Expensive and quiet

The bottoms of the past three cycles all fell in the upper left corner, that is, the "cheap + high volatility" area.

This is actually easy to understand.

Historical bear market bottoms often require a concentrated capitulation, breaking through the cost basis of many holders, with panic selling further amplifying market volatility.

But the current orange dot falls in the lower left area.

In other words, this cycle has not seen obvious concentrated capitulation but has completed chip rotation in a low volatility environment.

The market did not experience a violent "final drop," but slowly digested selling pressure through time, low sentiment, and sustained oscillation.

My personal understanding is:

Volatility contraction usually means selling pressure is weakening.

Those who needed to sell probably already have, and the remaining chips are starting to stabilize.

At the same time, PSIP is about 55%, meaning the current price is still near the cost area of many chips.

Therefore, "low volatility + cost concentration" looks more like a redistribution and bottoming structure.

This might be a "boring bottom," not the typical "pain bottom" in history.

Of course, this does not mean the bottom has been confirmed.

Volatility itself has mean-reverting characteristics; after long-term compression, it often implies that larger volatility may occur in the future, though the direction is currently uncertain.

If a sharp downward volatility release occurs later, the orange dot may quickly move to the upper left, re-entering the area where historical bottoms were located.

Then, the market could shift from a "boring bottom" back to a traditional "capitulation bottom."

So the real question worth observing now is:

Will this cycle become the first "boring bottom," or is traditional capitulation still yet to come?

This is the biggest disagreement in the current market.

Some believe selling pressure has been digested over time; others think real panic capitulation is still on the way.

In this situation, rather than betting on a single direction, it is better to maintain some space for a two-way response.