Published under "Market Analysis" at KTX Crypto Academy, this article is based on the official KTX Baize Academy Web3 market livestream. The session examined the timing of the crypto market's base-building phase, short-term rebound and medium-term accumulation plans for BTC and ETH, and trading setups in gold, crude oil, SanDisk, EWY, TSM, and HYPE. It also covered Fibonacci retracements, trend channels, stop-loss discipline, position sizing, and screen-time management.

Livestream date: August 7, 2026

Instructor: Zeyu

Platform: Official KTX Chinese Lark community

Full Livestream Replay:

The full KTX Baize Trading Academy Web3 market livestream has been uploaded to YouTube.

Key Takeaways

• Crypto has spent roughly two months building a base from June through August, and September may provide a more attractive medium-term buying window.
• Chasing BTC shorts around $65,000 carries poor risk-reward. The rebound has already reached roughly $67,300, with $70,000 as the next reference area.
• ETH above roughly $1,900 is not an attractive location for aggressive shorts. The more important medium-term plan is to wait for the $1,700-$1,600 zone.
• Altcoins are more exposed to concentrated control and thin liquidity, so Fibonacci, MA, and EMA levels cannot be applied mechanically.
• Gold remains in a strong rebound structure and should not be shorted against momentum. Crude oil still carries a pullback bias, with $72-$73 as the downside reference; a fresh short should wait for a higher rebound.
• U.S. equities, gold, and crude oil currently offer better trading efficiency than low-volatility crypto, but only with controlled exposure and predefined exits.

Core Questions

1. Why can a prolonged consolidation indicate that a medium-term bottom is approaching?
2. Why is BTC near $65,000 a poor place to chase shorts, and why does $70,000 matter next?
3. Why is $1,700-$1,600 a more important medium-term zone for ETH?
4. Why should technical tools be used differently for altcoins?
5. How can trend channels and Fibonacci retracements be combined in U.S. equities, gold, and crude oil?

1. Market Phase: Two Months of Base Building, With September as a Potential Buying Window

Zeyu described the current market as a low-volatility, prolonged base-building phase. Crypto has consolidated for roughly two months from June through August, while a major bottom often takes two to three months to develop. He therefore views September as a possible window for a more meaningful medium-term entry.

This does not mean the market must immediately begin a one-way rally. A more likely path is a short-term rebound followed by another pullback around September, completing a larger bottoming process. The strategy is therefore shifting away from expecting another major collapse and toward preparing to buy a controlled pullback.

2. BTC: Do Not Chase Shorts at 65K; 70K Is the Next Rebound Reference

In the dedicated BTC perpetual analysis, Zeyu explained that chasing a short near $65,000 now carries materially higher risk. He had already manually stopped an earlier short entered near $64,000. When the original bearish structure fails, a trader should not increase the loss simply to defend an old opinion.

The rebound framework discussed in the livestream was:

• The 0.382 retracement near $67,300 had already been reached.
• The next area is the 0.5 retracement around $70,000.
• If a deeper pullback develops around September, the market can be reassessed for medium-term accumulation.
• The prior low near $57,700 may not be broken again; waiting for a pullback does not mean assuming a guaranteed new low.

For traders still considering a tactical short, the livestream preferred waiting for a rebound toward $65,800-$66,000 and using only light exposure. The primary plan remains to wait for a better pullback long rather than chase the current move in either direction.

3. ETH: Avoid Aggressive Shorts Above 1,900; Watch 1,700-1,600 for the Medium Term

ETH perpetuals traded around $1,930 during the livestream. Zeyu considered a short near $1,917 too aggressive because the structure was breaking upward. Existing shorts should be reduced or closed on a pullback. Traders still attempting a short should wait for at least the area above $1,950 and keep the position small.

For the medium term, the livestream identified $1,700-$1,600 as the higher-conviction buying zone, with $1,700 as the main reference. If ETH returns there around September, the preferred approach would be spot accumulation and trend longs rather than adding trend shorts. The prior low near $1,500 may not be revisited, so preparation matters more than insisting on buying the exact bottom.

4. SanDisk: The Direction Was Not Wrong, but the Cost and Holding Efficiency Were Weak

Zeyu reviewed a SanDisk long with an average entry near 1,277 that was eventually closed around 1,295-1,299. The long direction was not invalidated by the later rebound, but the position had been opened early and held for too long, reducing capital efficiency and risk-reward.

The cleaner retracement zone was closer to 1,230. The stop had been moved from roughly 1,180 to 1,120 to avoid a short-lived washout; price bottomed near 1,168 and did not hit the adjusted stop. The lesson was that a correct directional view does not make every entry price worth holding indefinitely. Entry cost, target expectations, and time cost must be assessed together.

5. Altcoins: OPEN's Time Cost and the Short-Squeeze Risk in ON and BLESS

5.1 OPEN: A Recovery Does Not Automatically Make the Trade Efficient

OPEN had risen sharply. A position held underwater for more than a month could eventually recover, but Zeyu argued that this does not prove the original decision was efficient. Capital remained tied up for an extended period while clearer opportunities appeared in U.S. equities, gold, and crude oil.

After that experience, the copy-trading account significantly reduced altcoin exposure and focused more heavily on BTC, ETH, U.S. equities, gold, and crude oil.

5.2 ON and BLESS: Short Losses Can Expand Very Quickly

The livestream used ON and BLESS to illustrate asymmetric altcoin short risk. A small ON short entered around 0.41 ran into a new high. BLESS rose from roughly 0.02 to 0.03, a move of about 50% against the short. With high leverage, even a small test position can quickly produce a large unrealized loss.

These were private, small-size attempts and were not placed in the copy-trading account. The broader lesson was that concentrated control and unstable liquidity can override chart levels in altcoins. Apparent support and resistance cannot be treated as guaranteed.

6. Gold and Crude Oil: Do Not Chase One Short; Wait for the Other

6.1 Gold: A Breakout After Consolidation, Not a Short Against Momentum

Gold had consolidated around 3,950-4,150 for an extended period before breaking higher. Zeyu had previously opened a long near 4,050 but took profit too early and did not capture the full rebound.

During the livestream, gold pushed above 4,350. This also demonstrated the danger of blindly shorting around 4,040-4,060 based only on an older descending channel. When current price behavior conflicts with the planned direction, the trader should not remain short simply because the old structure once appeared valid.

6.2 Crude Oil: Pullback Bias, With 72-73 as the Downside Reference

Crude oil traded around $76.7 and remained capped by a larger descending channel. The livestream maintained a pullback bias and treated $72-$73 as the downside reference area. However, the current location was not considered a clean fresh entry. A new short would be better considered after a rebound toward roughly $79 or another smaller-timeframe Fibonacci retracement zone.

The execution model is simple: use the trend channel for direction and Fibonacci retracement for entry. If price never reaches the planned area, there is no reason to enter early merely to participate.

7. U.S. Equity Opportunities: EWY Breakout-Retest and a TSM Position With a Low Cost Basis

7.1 EWY: Long After a Breakout and Retest

On the 4-hour chart, EWY broke above a descending channel and then retested the breakout area. This produced a clearer setup than the low-volatility crypto market. The reviewed position had an average price near 165.3 with roughly 1,000 units and remained structured as a continuation long after the retest.

Even when the chart is cleaner, U.S. equity products should not be oversized. The livestream showed roughly 10x leverage on U.S. equities, gold, and crude oil and higher displayed leverage on major crypto pairs. However, actual risk is determined by margin size, total exposure, and the stop-loss, not the leverage number alone.

7.2 TSM: Continue Holding the Low-Cost Long

For a viewer's TSM long entered near 147, Zeyu noted that the cost basis was very low compared with the current price around 425. He saw no need to rush the exit. The next reference levels were approximately 438, followed by the 450 and 460 areas.

This guidance depends on the unusually low entry cost. A new position chased near resistance has a completely different risk-reward profile and should not copy the holding plan of a legacy position.

7.3 Micron and SK Hynix: Review of Completed Trades, Not New Signals

The trade history shown during the livestream included completed shorts in Micron and SK Hynix. No new entry level was issued for either product during this session, so the historical records should not be interpreted as fresh trading signals.

8. HYPE: A Rebound Is Tradable, but Altcoin Uncertainty Remains Higher

HYPE traded around $56.5. Depending on how the trend line is anchored, the descending channel was either close to breaking or had just been broken. If BTC and ETH continue rebounding, HYPE may also participate as a relatively strong altcoin.

The setup is still less certain than BTC or ETH. Major coins may offer less upside but generally provide more stable structure. Altcoins can offer more upside while also producing sharper adverse moves because of liquidity and concentration. Any HYPE position should therefore be smaller.

9. Trading Lessons: Technical Analysis Is a Tool, Not a Guarantee

9.1 A Simplified System: Price Action, Trend Channels, and Fibonacci

Zeyu said he relies less on MA, EMA, MACD, and news than many technical traders. His daily framework is mainly price action, trend channels, and Fibonacci retracements:

1. Use swing highs, swing lows, and the trend channel to establish direction.
2. Use the 0.618-0.786 retracement zone to look for entries.
3. Larger timeframes generally provide more stable signals and wider potential holding ranges.
4. The same process can be applied on 1-hour and 4-hour charts, but only when aligned with the broader direction.

This framework tends to produce cleaner structures in U.S. equities, gold, and crude oil. Its reliability falls materially in thin or heavily controlled altcoins.

9.2 When the Market Rejects the Technical Setup, the Stop Is the Exit

BTC provided an example of an anti-technical move: price broke below a triangle, then reclaimed it, and a seemingly valid descending-channel short failed to produce the expected move. No technical pattern can guarantee a correct result.

A failed setup is manageable when a stop is in place because the trader retains the ability to reassess. Without a stop, attachment to the original view can turn a normal failed trade into a much larger loss.

9.3 Position Size Matters More Than the Leverage Label

The livestream displayed different leverage settings across major crypto and traditional-market products. Traders should not compare "10x" and "100x" in isolation. The same leverage setting can represent completely different risk depending on margin size and total exposure.

Risk management must cover the amount at risk on each trade, the number of correlated positions, and aggregate margin across the portfolio.

9.4 Reduce Screen Time and Keep Trading in Its Proper Place

Profit targets and stops should be planned before or immediately after entry rather than constantly revised while watching every small move. Excessive screen time often causes traders to react to noise and abandon the original plan.

The livestream closed with a broader reminder: trading is only one part of life, and earning money is meant to support a better life. When weekend liquidity is limited and no planned setup appears, resting is also a form of risk management.

10. Trading Principles From This Session

1. After a prolonged base-building phase, prepare a medium-term buying plan instead of focusing only on another collapse.
2. Do not chase BTC or ETH shorts at current levels; tactical shorts require a rebound and light exposure.
3. Fibonacci and trend channels identify probability zones, not guaranteed outcomes.
4. Altcoins require smaller positions and cannot be analyzed mechanically like major coins.
5. A correct direction does not make a trade efficient; entry cost and capital lock-up also matter.
6. Displayed leverage cannot replace portfolio-level exposure management.
7. Exit when the technical structure fails instead of trying to prove the original opinion right.
8. If price never reaches the planned level, wait. If there is no high-probability setup, do not trade.

11. Livestream Resources and Participation

Users who have not joined the official KTX Lark community can scan the QR code shown in the livestream. The group shares daily market views, livestream notices, strategy reviews, and related events.

Visit KTX Crypto for live markets and trading services, or browse KTX Crypto Academy for more market analysis and trading education.

This article summarizes an official KTX Chinese-community livestream. All price levels, market views, historical performance displays, and trading strategies are presented solely as a recap of the session. They do not represent future performance and do not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency, equity-index, commodity, derivatives, and leveraged trading involve substantial risk. Make independent decisions based on your own risk tolerance.