Published in the “Market Analysis” section of KTX Crypto Academy, this article summarizes the official KTX Baize Academy Web3 market livestream. Baize analyzed the shift in BTC perpetuals from a bearish to a bullish structure across monthly, weekly, and intraday timeframes, ETH perpetual support near 1,900, a SOL long near 73, and a ZEC long setup near 488 with an addition near 481. The session also reviewed HYPE, Micron, and SanDisk.
Livestream date: August 6, 2026
Instructor: Baize
Platform: Official KTX Chinese Lark Community
Full Livestream Replay:
The full KTX Baize Trading Academy Web3 market livestream has been uploaded to YouTube.
Key Takeaways
- BTC's higher-timeframe bias shifted from bearish to bullish, favoring pullback longs instead of new shorts.
- A BTC long was opened near 64,100, with 63,600 and 63,300 identified as lower support references.
- The first BTC target was around 67,000, followed by levels above 70,000 and a possible Fibonacci extension near 76,000.
- ETH formed a resistance-to-support flip near 1,900, where part of the long exposure was added back.
- SOL remained a long near 73; ZEC was treated as bullish near 488, with a planned addition around 481.
- HYPE no longer offered a favorable entry, while Micron and SanDisk required intraday directional adjustments.
Core Questions
- Why did the BTC view change from bearish to a right-side bullish setup?
- What do 64,100, 63,600, and 63,300 represent in the BTC execution plan?
- Why did 1,900 become a key ETH support area?
- How do 488, 481, 519, and 535 fit into the ZEC plan?
- How should traders respond when new price action invalidates an earlier view?
1. Current Direction and Position Changes
Baize stated at the beginning of the market analysis that the primary direction had shifted to long exposure. BTC had previously been traded from the short side, but the earlier bearish thesis no longer applied after changes in both higher-timeframe signals and intraday structure.
Before the detailed analysis, the main positions included an ETH long, a SOL long, and a Micron short. BTC, ETH, ZEC, Micron, and SanDisk plans were then added or adjusted during the stream, leaving the portfolio heavily tilted toward longs by the end.
This does not mean that more positions are automatically better. Baize acknowledged that he had intended to add no more than two positions but ended up with six, describing the expansion as partly driven by FOMO. Viewers should not copy the number or size of another trader's positions.
2. BTC Higher Timeframes: Monthly TD9 and Weekly 0.618 Support
2.1 Monthly Signals Supported a Directional Shift
BTC printed a monthly TD9 signal followed by consecutive bullish monthly candles. Baize treated TD9 as a reference for a possible higher-timeframe reversal. It cannot guarantee a turn on its own, but it can justify reassessing a bearish thesis when price action confirms the signal.
The shift from short to long was therefore not based on a single positive day. It resulted from monthly, weekly, and intraday evidence aligning.
2.2 The 57,948-57,900 Area Became Important Weekly Support
On the weekly chart, BTC's broader cycle still retained an upward structure. After rising from roughly 15,000 to above 126,000, the market entered a deep correction that Baize viewed as a higher-timeframe reset.
The weekly Fibonacci 0.618 retracement was near 57,948, close to the recent 57,900 low. Price rebounded after reaching that region, making it an important reference for whether the broader recovery structure remains intact.
The broader lesson was that a 50%-61.8% retracement after a large advance does not automatically prove a trend reversal. Markets also require periods of correction and consolidation.
3. BTC Intraday Structure: 123 Confirmation and Pullback Longs
3.1 Wave Structure and Volume Favored Bulls
On the eight-hour and four-hour charts, Baize broke the earlier move into a smaller five-wave impulse and an ABC correction, then proposed that the market was preparing for a larger third wave.
Short-side volume expansions had been brief, while buying volume was more persistent. The analysis prioritized price action and volume rather than relying exclusively on moving averages or lagging indicators.
3.2 Descending-Trendline Break and the 123 Rule
BTC had broken its descending trendline and met the conditions of the 123 reversal rule discussed in the stream:
- Price broke the original descending trendline.
- The breakout produced a higher high.
- The pullback did not create a lower low.
A bullish MACD divergence was also visible on the two-hour chart. With these conditions aligned, long exposure was treated as a right-side trade, while a new short would be a countertrend left-side decision.
3.3 Live Entry at 64,100 and Two Pullback Levels
Baize opened a 1.5 BTC long near 64,100 during the livestream. The plan was:
- Live entry reference: around 64,100
- First pullback support: around 63,600
- Second pullback support: around 63,300
- Structural decision level: whether 63,300 holds
- First target: around 67,000
- Later targets: above 70,000 and a possible Fibonacci extension near 76,000
The local Fibonacci levels shown on the chart placed 0.382 near 63,952, 0.5 near 63,600, and 0.618 near 63,290. The 63,300 area also aligned with a retest of the broken descending trendline.
A confirmed break below 63,300 would require reassessing the short-term bullish structure rather than continuing to add without limits.
4. ETH: Resistance-to-Support Flip Near 1,900
ETH had previously broken a major resistance zone with strong volume. After the breakout, the old resistance acted as support, and price retested the area twice without a confirmed breakdown.
Baize had taken profit on roughly half of an earlier ETH long and retained the remaining exposure. During the stream, he placed an order near 1,900-1,901 to add part of the position back.
On the lower timeframe, 1,900 was the main execution area. Levels such as 1,888 or 1,860 could offer better prices, but the market was not guaranteed to reach them. The teaching point was that after direction, breakout, and retest conditions align, a trader may execute with a small initial position instead of waiting indefinitely for the theoretical lowest price.
This does not remove the need for risk controls. Position size and stop placement still need to be defined, and a failed support must lead to reassessment.
5. SOL: Long Near 73, Watching Support Around 71.9
SOL traded around 73 during the stream. Baize maintained a bullish view and described the pullback as relatively standard.
The chart placed the Fibonacci 0.5 retracement near 71.91, where price had formed support. The structure was treated as a possible second-wave pullback before continuation. A loss of the key support would require reassessment rather than unlimited averaging down.
6. ZEC: Reversing from Bearish to Bullish Near 488
6.1 Why the View Changed
Before redrawing the chart, Baize still carried a bearish impression from an earlier ZEC setup. The updated chart showed that ZEC had broken its descending trendline and produced both a higher high and a higher low, shifting the 123 structure to bullish.
The lesson was that traders are allowed to change their views. When new price action invalidates an old thesis, the evidence should take priority over the desire to remain consistent with a previous call.
6.2 Entry, Addition, Targets, and Invalidation
The ZEC plan discussed during the stream was:
- Market-entry reference: around 488
- Addition: around 481
- First target zone: 519-525
- Second target: around 535
- Structural invalidation reference: around 467-468
The 481 area aligned with the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement, while 488 was close to the 0.5 retracement and neckline support. The 519-525 range represented nearby resistance, with 535 as a higher extension target.
Any addition must remain within the total risk budget. A break below the structural invalidation area should stop further averaging and trigger risk control.
7. HYPE: No Forced Trade After Missing the Better Entry
The previous descending structure and resistance levels in HYPE had been clear, but the favorable short opportunity had already passed by the time of this stream. Chasing the decline was unattractive, while a new long lacked sufficient support.
Not every correct analysis must become a trade. Avoiding a forced entry after the better location is gone is part of disciplined execution.
8. Micron and SanDisk: Adjusting Intraday Without Oversizing
8.1 Micron: Close the Short, Then Reassess the New Structure
A Micron short was open early in the stream. When price action stopped matching the original thesis, Baize closed the short near breakeven. After later identifying a breakout-and-retest structure, he switched to a small long.
The important distinction is between updating a thesis and emotional overtrading. A reversal should follow confirmation that the old conditions failed and new conditions formed, not an attempt to recover a small loss immediately
8.2 SanDisk: From a Completed Short to a Small Long
An earlier SanDisk short had already reached its take-profit objective. Later in the session, Baize compared SanDisk with Micron and identified similar breakout-and-retest behavior, then opened a small long.
He also stated that his confidence in these US-listed instruments was lower than in crypto, so exposure should remain small. SK Hynix did not offer a sufficiently clear structure and was left alone.
9. Trading Lessons: From Higher-Timeframe Bias to Execution
9.1 Multi-Timeframe Analysis Sequence
The session demonstrated a complete workflow:
- Use the monthly chart to identify potential major turning signals such as TD9.
- Use the weekly chart to confirm the primary trend and key Fibonacci levels.
- Use eight-hour and four-hour charts to analyze wave structure and volume.
- Use the two-hour chart to check for MACD divergence.
- Use the one-hour chart to identify trendlines, necklines, and resistance-to-support flips.
- Define entry, addition, target, and invalidation only after the direction is established.
An isolated lower-timeframe pattern should not replace directional analysis.
9.2 Prioritize Price Action and Volume
Moving averages and common indicators are inherently lagging. Baize placed greater emphasis on swing highs and lows, trendline breaks, the quality of retests, and whether a breakout was supported by volume.
Indicators can support a decision, but they should not replace price action.
9.3 Do Not Wait Forever, but Do Not Chase Blindly
When direction, breakout, and support are confirmed, a trader can begin with a small position and reserve room for a deeper pullback. If the structure is not confirmed, entering only because of fear of missing out turns proactive execution into FOMO.
The expansion from two planned additions to six open positions also showed that several individually valid charts can still create excessive portfolio-level exposure.
9.4 Build a Repeatable Trading System
Trading skill is not the ability to predict every move. It is the ability to know when to act, when to wait, and when the original thesis has failed. Without a repeatable process, even small daily losses can steadily erode capital.
10. Trading Principles from This Session
- Abandon an old view when higher-timeframe and intraday evidence invalidates it.
- After a right-side breakout, favor pullback entries instead of countertrend shorts.
- Plan entry, additions, targets, and invalidation together.
- The perfect price may never arrive, so use controlled staggered entries.
- A directional reversal is valid when based on new evidence, not emotion.
- Manage several same-direction positions as one portfolio risk.
- Do not force a HYPE trade after the favorable entry has passed.
- A bullish view is not a guarantee; every strategy still needs a stop.
11. Livestream Resources and Participation
Users who have not joined the official KTX Lark community can scan the QR code displayed in the upper-right corner or below the livestream. The community shares daily market views, livestream notices, strategy reviews, and related events.
Visit KTX Crypto for live market data and trading services.
This article summarizes an official KTX Chinese-community livestream. All price levels, market views, historical performance displays, and trading strategies are included for recap purposes only. They do not indicate future performance and do not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency, derivatives, and leveraged trading involve substantial risk. Make independent decisions based on your own risk tolerance.