Published in the “Market Analysis” section of KTX Crypto Academy, this article is based on the official KTX Baize Academy Web3 market livestream. The session covered BTC's short-term breakout uncertainty and medium-term accumulation plan, ETH's 1,650-1,750 entry zone, and trading setups in gold, crude oil, SanDisk, SK Hynix, Micron, and EWY.
Livestream date: August 5, 2026
Instructor: Zeyu
Platform: Official KTX Chinese Lark Community
Full Livestream Replay:
The full KTX Baize Trading Academy Web3 market livestream has been uploaded to YouTube.
Key Takeaways
- BTC's short-term breakout was not yet confirmed, so waiting for a pullback was preferred to chasing the move.
- The main BTC accumulation zone was 60,000-62,000, with rebound targets at 73,000-77,000.
- ETH's medium-term accumulation zone was 1,650-1,750, with 2,100-2,250 as the first target area.
- Weak crypto liquidity reduced the reliability of altcoin setups, making smaller exposure and fewer positions more appropriate.
- Every trade should have a target, stop, and room for planned additions before entry; liquidation must never serve as a stop-loss.
Core Questions
- Is BTC making a genuine breakout or a false breakout, and where is the better medium-term entry?
- How should ETH be accumulated if it pulls back instead of breaking higher immediately?
- What actionable setups remain in gold, crude oil, and selected US-listed instruments?
- How should traders control total risk when several correlated positions are open?
1. Current Market View and Position Review
Zeyu described the crypto market as a low-liquidity environment with limited effective volatility. Meaningful moves in BTC perpetuals and ETH perpetuals may require three to seven days of holding, while frequent directional changes can lead to repeated losses inside a range.
BTC was trading near 64,000 during the session, close to the average cost of the existing short. The 1,880 ETH short reference remained profitable, although part of the ETH exposure had already been reduced or closed to ease the overall position burden. The main open positions discussed were a BTC short, a SanDisk short, and an EWY long.
The key lesson was correlation. Different tickers do not necessarily represent independent risk when they all respond to the same market sentiment.
2. BTC: Wait for Short-Term Confirmation, Watch 60K-62K for Accumulation
2.1 The Breakout Was Not Yet Confirmed
BTC was trading near the intersection of a triangle and a descending channel. The structure could produce either an upside breakout or a false move, so Zeyu preferred waiting for the four-hour candle to close instead of chasing an intraday push.
The short-term bias favored a pullback first because a long entered after a retracement would offer a clearer risk-reward profile. If the market did not provide that pullback, missing the trade was considered acceptable. Existing shorts near 64,000 should continue to follow their original stop plans, while traders without positions should remain patient.
2.2 Medium-Term Entry Zone and Targets
The primary strategy for this week and next remained buying a BTC pullback:
- Accumulation zone: 60,000-62,000
- Main reference: Fibonacci 0.618-0.786 retracement area
- First target: around 73,000
- Extended target: around 77,000
- Structural invalidation reference: a confirmed break below the 57,750 prior low
An entry near 61,000, structural invalidation near 57,750, and targets at 73,000-77,000 would provide a risk-reward ratio of roughly 1:3. The setup was intended for staggered spot purchases and medium-term futures exposure rather than a single oversized entry.
Moving averages were considered less useful in the current choppy structure because of repeated crossovers. Fibonacci levels and the prior low provided clearer references for entry, risk, and target planning.
3. ETH: Focus on the 1,650-1,750 Accumulation Zone
3.1 A Break Above 1,960 Would Weaken the Short Thesis
ETH was also approaching a possible structural breakout, but confirmation was still missing. The 1,960 area was an important invalidation reference for shorts. A confirmed move above it would materially reduce the value of holding a directional short.
If ETH moved higher without a pullback, the plan was still to avoid chasing. The absence of a favorable entry is itself a valid reason not to trade.
3.2 Pullback Entries and Rebound Targets
The medium-term ETH plan was:
- Staggered entry zone: 1,650-1,750
- Main focus: around 1,700 and the Fibonacci 0.618 area
- Deeper retracement reference: around 1,610, viewed as less likely
- First target zone: 2,100-2,250
- Extended target: around 2,400, followed by a test of the 2,463 prior high
With roughly 100 points of risk and 500-700 points of potential upside, the planned risk-reward ratio could exceed 1:5. Entries should still be staggered, with margin reserved for planned additions.
4. OPEN and Altcoins: Reduce Participation in the Current Environment
OPEN had previously been one of Zeyu's preferred trades and produced profitable opportunities. However, after a prolonged one-to-three-month washout, he stopped trading it even though the price later recovered.
The point was not that OPEN could no longer rise. In a bear market with weak liquidity, altcoins generally offer less persistence and certainty than BTC and ETH. A more conservative approach is to hold fewer altcoins and avoid re-entering an abandoned plan merely because the price starts moving again.
5. Gold: Favor Pullback Longs, Avoid Premature Shorts
Gold had traded between roughly 3,950 and 4,150 for nearly two months. Zeyu had already closed a long opened near 4,050 and continued to prefer buying a pullback rather than shorting at the current level.
- Pullback area to watch: around 4,100-4,120
- Potential future short area: above 4,300
- Current approach: do not chase higher and do not short before sufficient resistance develops
The setup was about waiting for a better location, rather than assuming that an extended range must immediately reverse.
6. Crude Oil: Reviewing Two Shorts and Watching 72 for a Long Setup
Two earlier rebound-short plans were reviewed:
- Shorting 88-92 with an average near 89 and a target around 79
- Shorting 86-88 with an average near 86.8-87 and closing around 79
The new plan was to watch for a potential long near 72 if crude pulled back. If the price rebounded into the descending channel and Fibonacci resistance, a possible short near 83 could be considered, subject to recalculation as the channel and lows evolved.
The main teaching point was that unrealized profit is not realized profit. When price reaches the planned target, traders should take profit according to the plan instead of sacrificing an advantageous exit while searching for the exact top or bottom.
7. US-Listed Instruments: Control Correlated Directional Risk
7.1 SanDisk: No Further Additions to an Already Large Position
The SanDisk short had an average cost around 1,333, starting near 1,300 with an addition around 1,378. Zeyu did not add again when price reached roughly 1,489 because the position was already worth close to USD 40,000.
An earlier SanDisk short opened near 1,575 had been stopped near 1,966 for a loss exceeding USD 4,000. A later short in the 1,300-1,400 region produced more than USD 3,000 in profit, but had not fully recovered the earlier loss. The lesson was not to keep adding indefinitely after a loss. When a position begins to impair judgment, reducing pressure takes priority.
7.2 SK Hynix: No New Trade Before the Structure Confirms
SK Hynix was close to a breakout-and-retest structure, but there was no open trade during the stream. A previous short near 1,144 had already been closed around 1,138 for a small gain.
Zeyu also noted that some traders had entered longs between 1,300 and 1,500 before price later fell into the 800s. Even when the eventual long-term direction is correct, excessive leverage can force a trader out before the thesis develops.
7.3 Micron: A Valid Setup Can Still Be Rejected for Portfolio Reasons
Micron's descending channel was relatively clear. Shorts near 868, 888, and 895 had all been closed quickly. Zeyu did not continue holding Micron or SK Hynix shorts because the portfolio already carried a SanDisk short. Adding more semiconductor exposure in the same direction would have concentrated risk excessively.
8. EWY: Target 175-180 and Scale Out According to Plan
The EWY long consisted of roughly 1,500 units. Price was around 169.3 during the stream after reaching approximately 172.6. The plan was:
- Take profit on roughly one-third near 175
- Exit the remaining position near 180
- Use 166.5 as a cost-protection and risk-control reference
The EWY example reinforced the importance of defining targets before entry. Traders should not rush to close small winners while allowing losing trades to run all the way to the stop. Planned scaling out balances profit realization with continued upside participation.
9. Trading Lessons: Position Size, Stops, and Independent Judgment
9.1 If a Position Disrupts Sleep, It Is Too Large
Position management affects execution quality as well as account numbers. If a position prevents normal rest, causes constant monitoring, or leads to repeated plan changes, exposure should be reduced. Trading should not create psychological pressure beyond the trader's tolerance.
9.2 Leverage Alone Does Not Define Risk
Risk cannot be evaluated solely by whether a trader uses 10x or 100x leverage. The actual margin committed, liquidation distance, and remaining capacity for planned additions matter more.
For example, in a 1,000 USDT account, an initial 10 USDT margin allocation followed by another 10 USDT addition may remain controlled even at 100x leverage. Conversely, using all available capital at lower leverage can still create substantial risk.
In the examples discussed, a BTC liquidation price only USD 500-1,000 away from market price would be too close. An ETH long should ideally keep liquidation below 1,600, while an ETH short should retain room above 2,000. Liquidation is a final defense and must never replace a stop-loss.
9.3 Stops Can Be Tightened, Not Arbitrarily Widened
The original stop should be defined before entry. Once a trade becomes profitable, the stop may be moved toward the entry price to protect gains. However, it should not be widened simply because the market is approaching the planned exit.
If repeated additions have made a BTC short too large, part of the position can be reduced once it returns to profit, even before the final target is reached.
9.4 Trading Is About Probability, Not Certainty
An instructor's view is a reference, not a guaranteed outcome. Different market interpretations inside the community are normal. Traders should compare the logic, record results, and develop an independent system rather than relying indefinitely on a single source.
10. Trading Principles from This Session
- Do not chase if the market does not provide a pullback.
- Manage several correlated positions as one combined risk exposure.
- Define targets, stops, and room for additions before entry.
- Scale out at planned targets instead of searching for the exact top or bottom.
- Never use liquidation as a stop-loss.
- Reduce the number of altcoin positions and leverage when certainty is low.
- Reduce exposure when a position begins to disrupt sleep or judgment.
11. Livestream Resources and Participation
Users who have not joined the official KTX Lark community can scan the QR code displayed in the upper-right corner or below the livestream. The community shares daily market views, livestream notices, strategy reviews, and related events.
This article summarizes content from an official KTX Chinese-community livestream. All price levels, market views, and trading strategies are presented for recap purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency, derivatives, and leveraged trading involve substantial risk. Make independent decisions based on your own risk tolerance.