Published under “Market Analysis” at the KTX Crypto Academy, this article is based on the official KTX Baize Academy Web3 market livestream. The session reviewed the BTC long near 62,300 and the potential Wave 3 acceleration, then combined TD Sequential, Fibonacci, Elliott Wave structure, volume-price behavior, and MACD divergence to explain right-side confirmation. It also covered strategy views for ETH, SOL, ZEC, HYPE, and XLM.

Instructor: Baize, Dean of KTX Baize Academy

Livestream date: August 4, 2026

Platform: Official KTX Chinese Lark community

Core topics: BTC 62,300 long review · 71K/75K/77K Wave 3 targets · ETH/SOL/ZEC strategies · Right-side confirmation lessons

Full Livestream Replay:

The full KTX Baize Trading Academy Web3 market livestream has been uploaded to YouTube.

Key Takeaways

• The BTC long level at 62,300 closely matched the actual low near 62,228. BTC was trading around 63,800-63,900 during the livestream.
• Baize maintained a staged bullish view. BTC rallied from 57K to 67K and retraced only to the 0.5 level, a structure that may support a stronger Wave 3 acceleration.
• Fibonacci extension references for BTC were 71,000, 75,000, and 77,000, although these targets depend on the bullish structure remaining valid.
• BTC's right-side evidence included a second pullback that held above the prior low, a W bottom, volume-price divergence, MACD divergence, and successful neckline retests. The full 1-2-3 reversal rule was not yet complete, but it was not the only confirmation method.
• ETH remained stronger than BTC. The livestream viewed Wave 2 as largely complete and focused on potential breaks of 1,930 and 1,970.
• SOL found support between the 0.5 and 0.618 retracements and was expected to follow BTC into a possible acceleration phase.
• The earlier ZEC short had been closed. The new bullish references were 520 and 536.
• HYPE lacked convincing bullish volume and faced overhead resistance, while XLM lacked sufficient open interest and participation. Neither was prioritized.
• Most trading profits come from a limited number of directional acceleration phases. Consolidation is primarily a period for patience rather than repeated long-short switching.

Core Questions

1. Why was 62,300 the key BTC pullback-long level?
2. Why can a shallow 0.5 retracement imply a stronger Wave 3?
3. How can BTC be treated as a right-side setup before the full 1-2-3 reversal rule is complete?
4. What supports the bullish views on ETH, SOL, and ZEC?
5. Why were HYPE and XLM excluded from the current priority list?

1. Recent Strategy Review: BTC and Memory-Stock Long/Short Cycles

Baize began by showing recent account records. ETH and SOL remained the primary long exposures. Part of the BTC position had been closed, but the directional view remained bullish. Most recent closed trades were profitable, with one loss of approximately 991 USDT.

The first stage of the July 30 plan was bullish on SOL and anticipated rebounds in Micron, SanDisk, and SK Hynix. According to the livestream review, the three memory-related instruments subsequently rebounded by approximately 30%-40%.

The second stage shifted bearish after the rebound, using areas around 910 for Micron, 1,345 for SanDisk, and 1,170 for SK Hynix as short references. Baize said this rebound-short cycle later produced roughly another 20% of downside. These percentages are retrospective figures stated during the livestream, not future return expectations.

For BTC perpetual futures, the community's earlier long level was 62,300. The actual low was approximately 62,228, followed by a rebound toward 63,800-63,900 during the session. This example became the starting point for the lesson on pullbacks, support, reaction, and right-side confirmation.

2. Market View: Consolidation Is for Waiting, Acceleration Creates the Return

Baize characterized the current market structure as bullish and emphasized keeping one primary direction during the same phase: either long or short, rather than issuing conflicting views on the same day.

The session's core lesson was that markets spend roughly 70%-80% of their time consolidating. Meaningful account growth is more likely to come from the remaining 20% of directional or semi-trending conditions. Traders therefore do not need to act on every small move; the priority is to identify and hold the acceleration phase.

In a bullish environment, consolidation should be handled through pullback longs. In a bear market or declining environment, rallies become short opportunities. Using BTC's 62K-64K range as an example, a bullish trader could look for support near 62K, reduce part of the position near 63K, and then observe 64K instead of repeatedly reversing direction at both ends of the range.

3. Bitcoin (BTC): From Left-Side Signals to Wave 3 Right-Side Confirmation

3.1 Monthly TD9 and the Weekly 0.618 as Left-Side Evidence

Baize began the bullish case with higher timeframes. The July monthly candle turned from negative to positive by the close, while a TD Sequential 9 appeared near the bottom. TD Sequential is a left-side reversal tool. Its reference value generally increases on higher timeframes, but it should not be used as a standalone trade signal.

On the weekly chart, BTC had retraced toward approximately 57,500, close to the higher-timeframe 0.618 Fibonacci area. Weekly bullish volume bars also continued to appear. The monthly TD9, weekly 0.618, and improving volume formed the left-side evidence for a staged rebound.

3.2 The 57K-67K Move as Wave 1, With Wave 2 Ending Near 62,300

The livestream treated BTC's roughly $10,000 advance from 57K to 67K as the first impulsive wave. The pullback then reached around 62,300, which corresponded to the 0.5 retracement of that advance.

The key comparison was between two pullback types. A standard impulsive wave may retrace to 0.618 or even 0.786. This BTC pullback stopped near 0.5, suggesting that sellers could not push price into the deeper support area. The shallower retracement therefore resembled an acceleration-wave characteristic.

Using the Fibonacci extension shown during the livestream, the Wave 3 reference targets were:

• First target: 71,000
• Second target: 75,000
• Third target: 77,000

These are technical scenario targets, not guaranteed prices. A structural failure would require reassessment rather than mechanically waiting for all three targets.

3.3 The Full 1-2-3 Rule Is Incomplete, but Right-Side Evidence Is Building

The standard 1-2-3 reversal rule requires a break of the descending trendline, a higher low, and a higher high. BTC already had the higher low and higher high during the session, but it had not fully broken the drawn descending trendline. Strictly speaking, the first condition remained incomplete.

Baize emphasized that the 1-2-3 rule is only one right-side confirmation method. Other evidence included:

• A second pullback that held above the 62,228 low, forming an SB structure and W bottom;
• Weaker selling volume on the second decline, creating volume-price divergence;
• A simultaneous bullish MACD divergence;
• Repeated successful retests after the neckline breakout, turning resistance into support;
• Stronger bullish volume than bearish volume.

Taken together, the livestream treated BTC as a relatively clear right-side bullish structure. Since price was already near 63,900, traders without a position were advised to wait for a pullback rather than chase a local rally.

4. Ethereum (ETH): Resistance Turns Into Support, With 1,930 and 1,970 in Focus

ETH perpetual futures were viewed as structurally stronger than BTC. After the higher-timeframe five-wave move and ABC correction, the current setup showed a first advance followed by a Wave 2 pullback that held above the former resistance area.

The shorter timeframe also showed an SB structure, with the second pullback holding above the previous low. The livestream viewed Wave 2 as largely complete and shifted attention to a possible Wave 3 acceleration. The important prior highs were 1,930 and 1,970. Baize's view was that both should break if Wave 3 develops, so shorting solely because price reaches 1,970 would be a countertrend decision.

Acceleration waves tend to move quickly and last for a limited period. Traders who already entered near a relative low need a planned position-management process. Exiting the entire position too early can make re-entry difficult if price continues higher.

5. Solana (SOL): Support Between 0.5 and 0.618, Direction Follows BTC

SOL perpetual futures remain a secondary major asset whose broad direction depends on BTC. The chart showed SOL holding between the 0.5 and 0.618 retracements after its first-wave high. The pullback was deeper than BTC's but still preserved a possible Wave 3 structure.

Baize continued to hold a SOL long during the session. Traders without exposure were advised not to chase the current elevated area. A pullback or a planned position adjustment offered better execution. If BTC fails to maintain its bullish structure, SOL's acceleration thesis must also be reduced.

6. ZEC: The Previous Short Is Complete, With 520 and 536 as Upside References

The earlier ZEC downside targets had been reached and the short was closed. The session shifted to a bullish view. ZEC perpetual futures had broken the previous descending trendline, completed a resistance-support flip, and formed both a higher high and higher low, creating a more complete 1-2-3 right-side structure.

The Fibonacci upside references were:

• First take-profit reference: 520
• Second take-profit reference: 536

The chart also retained a more complex path involving a rebound and another pullback. A bullish view therefore does not imply a straight-line advance. Execution still requires pullback confirmation, support reactions, and controlled exposure.

7. HYPE: Weak Bullish Volume, No Trade for Now

HYPE perpetual futures had rebounded from its low and approached a descending trendline, but it still faced a clear overhead resistance zone. Bullish volume had not expanded, and the earlier structure limited the available rebound range.

Baize viewed this as a potential bull-trap environment and chose not to trade HYPE. Existing holders should reassess the structure rather than increase exposure simply because price has bounced in the short term.

8. XLM and Open Interest: Do Not Force Analysis Where Participation Is Missing

The final section used XLM perpetual futures to explain OI, or open interest. OI measures the total number of outstanding long and short contracts and helps indicate how much capital and participation currently exist in a market.

Baize's assessment was that XLM lacked sufficient OI and market participation, leaving too little active positioning to support a useful trade thesis. This reinforced a broader selection rule: not every token needs to be traded. When liquidity and open interest are weak, staying out may be the better decision.

9. Trading Lessons

9.1 Wait for the Pullback, Support, Reaction, and Right-Side Confirmation

The session summarized a trend-following entry in four steps: do not chase the impulse; wait for a pullback; observe the reaction at key support; then wait for right-side confirmation. A setup becomes more reliable when all four stages connect.

9.2 A Shallow Pullback Can Be Stronger Than a Deep One

Standard impulsive waves often retrace 0.5-0.618, while acceleration waves frequently retrace around 0.382-0.5. When a rally holds at 0.5 without reaching 0.618, sellers may lack sufficient control, increasing the probability of a stronger continuation.

9.3 Right-Side Confirmation Requires More Than One Indicator

The 1-2-3 rule, trendlines, necklines, W bottoms, 2B/SB structures, volume-price behavior, MACD, and Fibonacci each provide only partial evidence. A right-side judgment should combine multiple independent signals rather than justify full exposure with one indicator.

9.4 Leaving an Acceleration Wave Can Make Re-entry Difficult

Acceleration waves are fast and relatively short. Positions acquired near a relative low should be managed through a plan, staged profit-taking, or protective stops. Closing everything after a small gain may leave a trader unwilling to re-enter once price moves higher.

9.5 Trade Markets You Can Understand

The livestream also reviewed experiences in equities, gold, silver, crude oil, and foreign exchange. These markets can react sharply to geopolitics, central-bank communication, and unexpected news. Even after profitable trades, reducing exposure is reasonable when the process does not produce stable conviction. The priority can return to clearer BTC, ETH, and SOL structures.

10. Core Trading Principles

1. Keep one primary direction during the same market phase instead of chasing both longs and shorts.
2. Consolidation is mainly a waiting period; significant returns usually come from a limited number of acceleration phases.
3. The BTC pullback near 62,300 was validated, but the Wave 3 structure still needs to continue.
4. BTC targets at 71K, 75K, and 77K are technical references, not guaranteed outcomes.
5. The 1-2-3 rule is not the only right-side method; combine W bottoms, divergence, neckline behavior, and volume.
6. Bullish ETH and SOL scenarios still depend on BTC maintaining strength.
7. ZEC can be monitored toward 520 and 536, while HYPE and XLM are not current priorities.
8. Traders without exposure should wait for pullbacks rather than chase local highs.
9. Acceleration-wave positions require planned management; staged exits are generally more disciplined than emotional full liquidation.
10. Instruments without a clear thesis, liquidity, or open interest can be excluded entirely.

11. Livestream Resources and Participation

Users who have not joined the official KTX Lark community can scan the QR code displayed in the upper-right corner or at the end of the livestream. The community shares daily market views, livestream notifications, strategy reviews, and related activities.

Visit KTX Crypto for live market data, spot trading, and perpetual futures.