Published under “Market Analysis” at the KTX Crypto Academy⁠, this article is based on the official KTX Baize Academy Web3 market livestream. The session reviewed completed shorts in BTC, ETH, crude oil, and equity-linked instruments, then outlined medium-term BTC entries at 61,888/61,288/59,888 and ETH entries at 1,745/1,688/1,644. It also covered Fibonacci retracements, position sizing, pre-positioned orders, and the difference between a staged bottom and a final bear-market bottom.

Instructor: Zeyu

Livestream date: August 3, 2026

Platform: Official KTX Chinese Lark community

Core topics: Six completed shorts · BTC/ETH medium-term long orders · Oil and equity rebound-short reviews

Full Livestream Replay:

The full KTX Baize Trading Academy Web3 market livestream has been uploaded to YouTube.

Key Takeaways

• The previous BTC, ETH, crude-oil, Micron, SK Hynix, and SanDisk shorts had all been closed. Zeyu was flat during this livestream.
• BTC orders near 62,388 and 62,222 missed by small margins. The revised long entries were 61,888, 61,288, and 59,888.
• BTC’s structural invalidation area was around 57,700-57,800. A confirmed break would require reassessing the medium-term bullish thesis.
• ETH medium-term orders were placed at 1,745, 1,688, and 1,644, while the chart emphasized the 0.5 and 0.618 retracement areas near 1,746 and 1,691.
• Two crude-oil rebound shorts moved from average entries near 90 and 87 toward 78-79. Both had been closed, and the next trade required another rebound.
• Micron, SK Hynix, and SanDisk remained rebound-short candidates in Zeyu’s personal framework, but shorts were not to be chased after the decline.
• The current area could produce a staged bottom and rebound, but it did not confirm the final bear-market bottom.

Core Questions

1. Why was the first BTC entry moved to 61,888 after orders near 62,388 and 62,222 missed?
2. How should risk be divided across BTC entries at 61,888, 61,288, and 59,888?
3. Why were ETH entries at 1,745, 1,688, and 1,644 treated as a medium-term accumulation zone?
4. Why should traders avoid chasing crude oil and equity-linked instruments after a major decline?
5. What is the difference between a staged bottom and the final bear-market bottom?

1. Market View: The Previous Shorts Are Finished, Pullback Longs Come Next

Zeyu began by reviewing six shorts from the previous week: BTC, ETH, crude oil, Micron, SK Hynix, and SanDisk. The crude-oil short had also been closed before this session, leaving the account flat. The focus therefore shifted from holding rebound shorts to waiting for BTC and ETH to reach medium-term long zones.

The broad scenario remained a pullback followed by a staged rebound. The livestream discussed a potential 40%-50% target range if the market develops as planned, but this was the instructor’s scenario estimate, not a guaranteed return or a substitute for a stop.

Zeyu did not define the current area as the final bear-market bottom. The more conservative interpretation was a staged low followed by a rebound, with the possibility of another decline or a later retest of the lows.

2. Current Orders: Six BTC and ETH Limit Orders Are Already Placed

The account was flat, but six limit longs were waiting:

• BTC perpetual futures⁠: 61,888, 61,288, and 59,888
• ETH perpetual futures⁠: 1,745, 1,688, and 1,644

The purpose of placing orders in advance is that a key level may be tested only through a fast downside wick. Waiting to react manually can result in a substantially higher fill after price has already rebounded.

These were the instructor’s personal orders. They do not mean all six entries will fill or become profitable. Total exposure must be calculated against one risk limit rather than treating each order as an unrelated trade.

3.1 Adjusting After Missed Orders at 62,388 and 62,222

BTC remained inside a descending channel. The earlier order at 62,388 missed the low by roughly $20-$40. It was then adjusted to around 62,222, but the second order also missed by a small margin.

Zeyu therefore abandoned the 0.5 area that had already been tested twice and moved his first order down to 61,888. This did not change the directional thesis. It reflected the view that the 62,300 area had already seen repeated tests and that the better risk-reward had shifted toward the 0.618 retracement.

3.2 Three Long Entries and One Structural Invalidation Area

The updated BTC plan was:

• First entry: 61,888
• Second entry: 61,288
• Third entry: 59,888
• Structural invalidation reference: around 57,700-57,800

The chart’s Fibonacci references were approximately:

• 0.5: 62,341
• 0.618: 61,260
• 0.786: 59,740
• Prior low/100% retracement: around 57,759

The first two entries were only about $600 apart, producing an average near 61,588 if both filled. The third order sat near the 0.786 retracement for a deeper pullback.

A confirmed break below roughly 57,700-57,800 would invalidate the current rebound structure. At that point, the plan requires reassessment rather than continuing to average down mechanically.

3.3 Do Not Chase Shorts or Enter Longs Early

BTC was approaching the planned area but had not completed the deeper pullback. Zeyu remained flat: execute when price reaches the order zone, and accept missing the move if it does not.

For traders already filled around 62,288-62,300, the session discouraged adding again at 61,888. The next addition could be reserved for 61,288 to avoid concentrating too much exposure within a narrow range.

ETH had remained stronger than BTC, but Zeyu cautioned that a strong asset can also fall faster once its pullback begins. Previous relative strength is not proof that ETH cannot move sharply lower.

The main Fibonacci references were:

• 0.5: around 1,746
• 0.618: around 1,691
• 0.786: around 1,612
• Prior low/100% retracement: around 1,511

The personal limit orders were 1,745, 1,688, and 1,644. The third entry sat between the 0.618 and 0.786 retracements, preserving room to add on a deeper pullback.

The livestream also discussed an intraday observation near 1,800, but that setup was valid only for the same evening and should not be confused with the 1,745-1,644 medium-term plan.

The spot-allocation example remained roughly 20% in BTC spot⁠ and 20% in ETH spot⁠, with the rest reserved for a deeper pullback. Futures require stops, while separate accounts can keep intraday trades from interfering with medium-term positions.

The session reviewed two crude-oil shorts:

• First trade: scaled in between 88 and 92, averaged near 90, and moved toward 78.
• Second trade: opened near 86 during the July 31 livestream, added once, averaged near 87, and was closed after price moved toward 79.

Both trades used descending-channel resistance and Fibonacci rebound zones. After a substantial decline, price was no longer a fresh short. A new short required another rally toward resistance.

The July 31 gold observation zone was 4,050-4,030. Zeyu opened a small long near 4,050 and later closed it with a modest gain.

Gold’s current volatility remained limited and lacked a clear directional range, so no new trade plan was introduced. The session expected continued consolidation unless inflation or another macro catalyst created stronger capital flows.

Zeyu remained cautious on high-volatility equity-linked instruments. His personal framework favored rebound shorts in Micron, SK Hynix, and SanDisk, but explicitly avoided chasing price lower without a rebound. This was the instructor’s market opinion, not confirmation that these assets must decline.

7.1 Micron: Average in the 870s, Price Near 791

The first Micron short was opened near 833, followed by an addition above 900, producing a personal average in the 870s. A more standard Fibonacci plan identified approximately 865-908 as the 0.618-0.786 zone, which could produce an average in the 880s.

Price was around 791 during the session, leaving the earlier short substantially profitable. The next step was not to chase lower but to wait for another rebound structure.

7.2 SK Hynix: Descending Channel and Fibonacci Confluence

The earlier personal SK Hynix short was near 1,181. The broader staged Fibonacci area was approximately 1,115-1,178, which could create an average near 1,146-1,147. Price had declined toward 1,056 by this session.

This example combined descending-channel resistance with a Fibonacci rebound zone. It also showed that a trade does not need to enter at the absolute top; direction, zone, size, and invalidation matter more.

7.3 SanDisk: Reviewing the Decline From the 1,309-1,401 Zone

SanDisk’s earlier 0.618-0.786 zone was approximately 1,309-1,401, with a staged average near 1,350. Price had declined toward 1,170, creating more than $100 of downside from the average.

Micron, SK Hynix, and SanDisk illustrated the same framework: confirm a bearish trend, wait for a rally into the 0.618-0.786 area, and exit if price breaks the prior high or the 100% retracement. Fibonacci is a measurement tool; historical examples do not establish a future win rate.

No specific altcoin trade was provided in this session. BTC and ETH had not completed the expected pullback, and an independent altcoin rally could still reverse if the broader market declined again.

The current priority remained BTC and ETH. Stronger altcoins could be screened only after the major coins complete their bottoming process and show a clearer rebound structure.

9.1 Determine the Trend Before Using Fibonacci

The 0.618 and 0.786 levels should not be used without a directional thesis. In a bearish trend, wait for a rebound into resistance; in a bullish trend, wait for a pullback into support. A break beyond the 100% retracement or the original swing point invalidates the setup.

9.2 Place Orders Before a Fast Wick Arrives

Key prices may remain available for only seconds. Pre-defining the limit order, total exposure, and stop is more consistent than chasing manually after the move has already begun.

9.3 Follow the Major Trend, Use Less Size Against It

Trades aligned with the primary trend can use normal planned size. Countertrend bounces or top-fishing attempts require materially smaller exposure. Size should come from a risk budget, not conviction that one trade must be correct.

9.4 Separate Intraday and Medium-Term Positions

Intraday levels are refreshed daily and can be canceled if they do not fill. Medium-term positions require separate accounts and longer holding periods. Mixing the two can cause a trend opportunity to be closed for a small intraday gain.

9.5 Daily Review Matters More Than Constant Screen Time

Watching a chart continuously does not guarantee better results. Reviewing the prior day’s structure, personal thesis, missed executions, and position-sizing errors is how a trading process improves.

1. The previous shorts are complete; the current priority is the BTC and ETH pullback-long plan.
2. BTC entries are 61,888, 61,288, and 59,888, with 57,700-57,800 as the structural invalidation reference.
3. ETH entries are 1,745, 1,688, and 1,644; manage intraday and medium-term orders separately.
4. All six orders must share one total-risk limit rather than receiving full position size individually.
5. Fibonacci must be combined with trend, channels, and prior highs or lows; it does not provide a fixed win rate.
6. Do not chase instruments after a major decline; wait for a new rebound into resistance.
7. The current thesis is a staged rebound, not confirmation of the final bottom or a new bull market.
8. Altcoins remain secondary until BTC and ETH complete the main setup.

Users who have not joined the official KTX Lark community can scan the QR code displayed in the upper-right corner or at the end of the livestream. The community shares daily market views, livestream notifications, strategy reviews, and related activities.

Visit KTX Crypto⁠for live market data, spot trading, and perpetual futures.

This article is based on the official KTX Baize Academy Web3 market livestream. All price levels, market views, and position examples are provided solely for education and research. They do not constitute investment advice, guaranteed returns, or trading instructions. Cryptocurrency, equity-linked instruments, commodities, and leveraged futures are highly volatile and may result in the loss of all invested capital. Make decisions according to your own risk tolerance.