Published under “Market Analysis” at the KTX Crypto Academy, this article is based on the official KTX Baize Academy Web3 market livestream. The session focused on BTC and ETH trend-long plans after a pullback, reviewed Micron, SK Hynix, and SanDisk, and outlined key zones for gold and crude oil together with position-sizing and trailing-stop lessons.

Instructor: Zeyu

Livestream date: July 31, 2026

Platform: Official KTX Chinese Lark community

Core topics: BTC/ETH short take-profit and trend-long plans · Equity rebound-short reviews · Gold and crude-oil key zones

Full Livestream Replay:

The full KTX Baize Trading Academy Web3 market livestream has been uploaded to YouTube.

Key Takeaways

• The BTC short near 65,000 reached its first take-profit at 64,000, while the second target at 63,000 had not been reached. Zeyu's average was around 64,600.
• BTC remained bullish after a pullback. Planned trend-long entries were 62,388, 61,288, and 59,788, with 58,000 as the reference stop.
• The ETH short averaged around 1,924. The 1,872 area aligned with both the first take-profit and rising-channel support, making it a position-reduction zone.
• An aggressive ETH rebound could be monitored near 1,875 with a reference stop at 1,840. The more conservative trend-entry zone remained 1,650-1,750.
• Micron, SK Hynix, and SanDisk were approached as rebound shorts, but their volatility had become comparable to altcoins, requiring smaller positions and strict stops.
• Gold remained within a 3,950-4,150 range, while crude oil reached the 86-88 area where Zeyu opened a small trial short during the livestream.

Core Questions

1. Why was chasing BTC longs still discouraged after the first short target was reached?
2. How should the 62,388, 61,288, and 59,788 entries be managed with a 58,000 stop?
3. Why was ETH exposure reduced near 1,872 instead of holding the entire short?
4. How can Fibonacci zones help manage entry risk after a sharp rebound in equity-linked instruments?
5. Why can position sizing, trailing stops, and emotional review matter more than one directional call?

1. Market View: Wait for a Pullback, Then Watch for a Staged Rebound

Zeyu maintained the same broad view as in recent sessions: expect a pullback first, then shift toward the long side. He did not favor chasing price directly into the current resistance area.

BTC and ETH had spent roughly two months building a base. The current low could therefore become a staged bottom, but a staged bottom is not necessarily the final cycle low. Price could rebound, complete an advance, and later retest or even break the previous low.

Weekend liquidity was expected to remain weak. The session therefore did not anticipate a sustained move during most of Saturday and Sunday, but highlighted the period around the early hours of August 3, when the new trading week could bring renewed volatility.

For spot holdings, Zeyu's personal example was roughly 20% in BTC spot, 20% in ETH spot, and 60% held in reserve for unexpected volatility. This was an instructor-specific example and should not be applied mechanically to leveraged futures.

2. Bitcoin (BTC): First Take-Profit at 64,000, Three Trend-Long Orders Pending

2.1 Short Review: Entry Near 65,000, First Target Reached

The July 30 BTC perpetual futures short plan was near 65,000. After partial take-profits and adding on rebounds, Zeyu's average during the livestream was around 64,600.

The position reached its first target at 64,000, while the second target at 63,000 remained unfilled. BTC was still capped by a descending channel and had entered a converging structure after breaking its earlier rising channel. The remaining short was therefore managed in stages without chasing further downside.

2.2 Trend-Long Plan: 62,388, 61,288, and 59,788

After the short is completed, the next priority is not to keep chasing shorts but to build a trend long after a pullback. The three reference entries were:

• First entry: 62,388
• Second entry: 61,288
• Third entry: 59,788
• Reference stop: 58,000

These zones align approximately with the 0.5, 0.618, and 0.786 Fibonacci retracements. Position size must be adjusted together with leverage: the higher the leverage, the smaller each entry should be. Splitting an order into three levels does not remove the need to cap total risk.

Zeyu remained bullish on a choppy advance after a pullback, but would not manufacture an entry before price reached the planned area. If BTC only retests above 63,000 and rallies, a conservative trader may miss the move; that is an accepted trade-off of the strategy.

3. Ethereum (ETH): Reduce Near 1,872, Wait for 1,650-1,750 for a Trend Setup

3.1 The Existing Short Is Near Rising-Channel Support

Zeyu had held the ETH perpetual futures short for roughly three days. Its average during the session was around 1,924, while the first take-profit had been adjusted to 1,872.

The 1,872 area also aligned with rising-channel support. Even if a deeper pullback remained possible, part of the short should be reduced there to avoid giving back gains during a technical rebound.

3.2 Aggressive Rebound and Trend Entry Are Separate Plans

For aggressive traders, the session presented a small rebound-long example near 1,875 with a reference stop around 1,840, creating approximately $30-$35 of price risk. The setup depends on rising-channel support holding immediately; a break requires the planned exit.

The more conservative trend plan remained 1,650-1,750. If ETH reaches that area, Zeyu would consider using a separate sub-account for a trend long so that intraday trades do not interfere with the longer-term position.

Spot orders can also be staged in advance around planned zones. A fast downside wick may remain available only briefly, so pre-positioned orders can prevent a trader from missing a pre-defined entry overnight.

4. Equity-Linked Instruments: Violent Oversold Rebound, Rebound Shorts Still Favored

Zeyu noted that equity-linked instruments had fallen sharply for three consecutive days and then recovered a large part of the decline very quickly. Their volatility had become comparable to crypto altcoins. They rarely remain flat for long, and a single four-hour candle can move by several percentage points, so normal major-coin position sizing is inappropriate.

His view that further downside risk remained was a personal thesis, not a certain outcome. News-driven gaps, liquidity shifts, and event risk must be included in any plan.

4.1 Micron: Reviewing an Early Short at 830 and an Add Near 905

Zeyu opened the first Micron short near 830 and added around 905, producing an average near 874. In review, he considered the first entry early; a more standard execution would wait until the rebound enters the 0.618-0.786 Fibonacci area before scaling in.

The stop example discussed was near the 100% retracement around 962. The case illustrates that Fibonacci defines candidate zones, but does not replace small position sizing or an explicit invalidation level.

4.2 SK Hynix: Trial Short Near Descending-Channel Resistance

After SK Hynix rebounded toward descending-channel resistance, Zeyu opened a personal short near 1,181. The thesis was based on the rapid recovery returning to trend resistance, but the strength of the rebound still required a small position.

4.3 SanDisk: 0.618 Area and an Average in the 1,340 Region

SanDisk returned to focus after rebounding toward the 0.618 Fibonacci area. Zeyu's original order at 1,377 did not fill, so he re-entered near 1,345. The position displayed during the session was around 1,336-1,344.

5. Gold: 3,950-4,150 Range, Small Long Observation at 4,050-4,030

Gold had continued to trade within roughly 3,950-4,150, and there had been no new active strategy before the session. For a small swing attempt, Zeyu identified 4,050-4,030 as a possible long observation zone with a stop below 4,000.

He still believed gold might not have completed a sufficient pullback. The plan was therefore limited to a small short-term position and should not be interpreted as confirmation of a major trend bottom.

6. Crude Oil: After Missing the 77-78 Long, Trial Short at 86-88

The earlier 77-78 crude-oil area had been a strong support zone, but Zeyu missed the rebound because he had not placed the order in advance. After price returned to descending-channel and Fibonacci resistance, the new plan was a small trial short in the 86-88 area with a reference stop around 91.

Crude oil had repeatedly printed long lower wicks, suggesting strong buying below. Even inside the short zone, the position therefore needed to remain small. When price reached the planned area during the livestream, Zeyu opened a small crude-oil short live.

7. Trading Lessons

7.1 Waiting Is Part of Trading

When a planned level has not been reached, traders do not need to force participation. Placing orders at key levels and allowing the market to decide whether they fill is part of a conservative system.

7.2 Position Sizing Determines Whether an Account Survives

The sharp fall and equally fast rebound in equity-linked instruments showed that being directionally correct does not make the path safe. Normal rebounds can liquidate an oversized account. Only the trader can protect capital through entry habits and total-risk limits.

7.3 Trail Stops After a Position Becomes Profitable

In volatile markets, trailing stops can keep a gain from turning into a full loss. If the trailing stop is triggered, the trader can wait for another setup; if it holds, the remaining position can continue with the trend.

7.4 Separate Intraday and Trend Positions

Major trend opportunities may appear only once or twice per year. A separate sub-account can prevent intraday decisions from closing a trend position too early and reduce psychological interference between strategies.

7.5 Stabilize the Trading State Before Continuing

After repeated losses or a trapped position, pause for a day or two and review the entry, position size, and stop. Continuing to add while emotional usually increases risk. When the logic remains unclear, use community discussion to test the thesis.

8. Core Trading Principles

1. The current base case is pullback first, bullish later; do not chase directly into resistance.
2. Reduce existing shorts when price reaches support instead of allowing open gains to reverse into losses.
3. Every trend-long plan needs pre-defined entries, sizing, and one clear invalidation level.
4. The 0.618 and 0.786 Fibonacci zones are candidates, not guarantees.
5. Use smaller positions in high-volatility instruments and actively manage trailing stops.
6. Keep intraday and trend strategies in separate accounts where possible.
7. If price has not reached the plan, continue waiting rather than breaking the system out of fear of missing out.

9. Livestream Resources and Participation

Users who have not joined the official KTX Lark community can scan the QR code displayed in the upper-right corner or at the end of the livestream. The community shares daily market views, livestream notifications, strategy reviews, and related activities.

Visit KTX Crypto for live market data, spot trading, and perpetual futures.