Baize did not treat this as a blind attempt to catch the bottom. The supporting signals included:

• Price repeatedly attempted to break lower after the announcement but failed.
• Both swing highs and lows continued to rise, suggesting net capital inflow.
• The 64,600 area had rejected price three times before a volume-backed breakout.
• Bullish volume was stronger overall than bearish volume.

2.2 A Larger Third Wave Is Possible, but Confirmation Is Incomplete

On the four-hour wave structure, Baize began watching for a larger third-wave acceleration. The Fibonacci extension area discussed was around 76,000.

However, BTC was still testing a descending trendline on the one-hour chart. The first two stages of the 1-2-3 reversal framework had appeared, but the third stage remained unconfirmed.

The next sequence to watch was:

1. BTC breaks above the descending trendline.
2. Price retests the trendline or neckline.
3. The retest holds and price resumes higher, creating a right-side secondary entry.

Existing longs could be monitored, but adding directly into trendline resistance was discouraged. Additional trend exposure was reserved for a confirmed breakout and retest.

2.3 Do Not Short Only Because Fibonacci Shows Resistance

The session demonstrated a common error: traders see price enter the 0.5-0.618 Fibonacci resistance zone and repeatedly short or add to shorts while ignoring capital inflows, rising lows, and a neckline breakout.

Indicators only define candidate zones. The final decision must also consider:

• Whether volume supports the move
• Whether highs and lows continue to rise
• Whether the neckline has broken
• Whether the trendline has completed a breakout and retest

3. Ethereum (ETH): Hold the 1,905 Long, Wait at 1,920-1,925

ETH’s four-hour structure also showed progressively higher support. The previous plan had waited for 1,845 or lower, but the market never reached those orders. After the announcement, the long entry was moved up to an average near 1,905.

The key area was the 1,920-1,925 neckline. Price had tested this zone roughly seven times, making it a widely recognized resistance level.

The trading framework was:

• Continue monitoring the existing ETH perpetual futures long.
• Do not chase while price is below or only touching the neckline.
• Wait for a confirmed breakout.
• After the breakout, wait for a successful retest before increasing exposure.

The livestream suggested that exposure could rise toward 30% after confirmation. This was an instructor-specific example and is not appropriate for every trader. High leverage and concentrated exposure can significantly increase losses.

4. SOL: 72.33 Long Triggered, Watch 79, 84, and 96

The planned SOL perpetual futures entry was 72.33, while the market low was approximately 72.27. The order therefore filled near the session low. This area aligned with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement, a previous high-volume zone, and a key area of buyer-seller competition.

Baize interpreted the current structure as a second-wave pullback within a broader advance. The next levels were:

• First resistance: around 79
• Second resistance: around 84
• Primary target: around 96

From the livestream price near $74, a move to $96 would represent roughly 30%-33%. However, SOL must first clear 79 and 84. The 96 target should be adjusted if those breakouts fail.

5. ZEC: Stop Looking for a Low-Level Long

Baize explicitly dropped the low-level long idea for ZEC perpetual futures. ZEC had declined from around 540 to 461, while a previous rebound into 519-525 had provided an opportunity to add to shorts.

The current assessment was:

• ZEC remained structurally weak after its high-level decline.
• Even if the broader market rebounded, ZEC could lag BTC, ETH, and SOL.
• Without a clear advantage, traders could favor stronger leaders or avoid the instrument entirely.

“Go long on leaders and short weaker names” was the selection principle discussed, but all short positions still require stops. Weakness does not mean price can only move lower.

6. HYPE: Different Drivers From Majors, Continued Outflow Risk

HYPE perpetual futures had previously declined from approximately 66-67 to 54-55 and remained in a bearish structure during the session.

Baize argued that HYPE does not share the same drivers as BTC, ETH, and SOL. Its value is more dependent on decentralized-exchange activity, staking, trading volume, and platform fundamentals. When BTC, ETH, and SOL all require new liquidity, capital may leave assets that had already risen sharply, including HYPE.

A rally in major coins therefore does not guarantee that HYPE will follow. Traders holding HYPE longs should reassess their entry logic, size, and stop rather than rely only on the broader market.

7. Micron and SanDisk: Oversold Rebound, Limited Technical Confirmation

Before the livestream, Baize had posted that Micron and SanDisk could see an oversold rebound. Micron did rebound during the session, and he said he had participated in the long.

The thesis relied on three ideas:

• Part of the negative news and valuation compression had already been priced in after the sharp decline.
• Earlier support flows had been disrupted by the news, but had not necessarily disappeared.
• After the rate announcement, broad risk assets attracted renewed flows, supporting a rebound.

Baize also acknowledged that the technical case was not especially clear. The trade relied more on news, capital flows, and an oversold condition, so it should not be treated as a repeatable technical pattern.

Micron, SanDisk, and SK Hynix had become highly volatile. Traders should reduce position size and avoid chasing news-driven moves.

8. Trading Lessons

8.1 Plans Can Change, but the Change Needs Evidence

The original BTC 62,300 and ETH 1,845 plans did not fill. When the market environment changed, the strategy was adjusted using news, volume, and price structure rather than waiting indefinitely to prove the original plan correct.

8.2 Read Capital Flow Before Indicators

Fibonacci, wave analysis, and trendlines are tools. If highs and lows are rising, bullish volume dominates, and a neckline breaks, a single resistance indicator is not sufficient reason to short.

8.3 Wait for Right-Side Confirmation at Key Levels

When price reaches resistance, traders can avoid chasing longs without automatically opening shorts. A more conservative approach is to wait for the breakout, retest, and renewed advance.

8.4 Trend Opportunities Can Be Better Than Constant Range Trading

Repeatedly buying lows and selling highs can produce several small wins, but one directional mistake may erase them. Baize preferred waiting for a clear direction and participating in a larger trend segment.

9. Core Trading Principles

1. When the market misses an original order, do not ignore new evidence just to keep waiting.
2. When an existing long reaches resistance, observe first; do not chase or immediately reverse short.
3. Breakout, retest, and renewed advance form an important right-side confirmation sequence.
4. Indicators must be combined with volume, capital flow, and price structure.
5. Favor strong leaders for longs and avoid weak names when no clear advantage exists.
6. A rally in major coins does not guarantee that every altcoin will rise.
7. News-driven oversold rebounds should use less exposure than structurally clear trend trades.

10. Livestream Resources and Participation

Users who have not joined the official KTX Lark community can scan the QR code displayed in the upper-right corner or at the end of the livestream. The community shares daily market views, livestream notifications, strategy reviews, and related activities.

Visit KTX Crypto for live market data, spot trading, and perpetual futures.