Published under “Market Analysis” at the KTX Crypto Academy, this article is based on the official KTX Baize Academy Web3 market livestream. The session covered short-term and swing setups for BTC and ETH, reviewed gold, crude oil, and U.S. equity-related instruments, and explained Fibonacci retracements, left-side versus right-side entries, position-adding discipline, and the different risk rules for spot and futures trading.

Instructor: Zeyu (7 years of cryptocurrency trading experience)

Livestream date: July 29, 2026

Platform: Official KTX Chinese Lark community

Core topics: BTC/ETH rebound shorts and pullback longs · Fibonacci entry zones · Gold, oil, and U.S. equity risk review

Full Livestream Replay:

The full KTX Baize Trading Academy Web3 market livestream has been uploaded to YouTube.

Key Takeaways

• BTC remained inside a descending channel, with a July 29 rebound-short zone at 64,500-65,000.
• The BTC swing plan shifted toward scaling into longs on a pullback between 62,300 and 59,800, with 58,000 used as the reference stop for the trend setup.
• ETH’s rebound-short zone was 1,908-1,938; pullback levels included 1,745 and 1,688, while the spot accumulation zone remained 1,600-1,700.
• The broader view was not to chase immediate upside, but to expect a pullback first and then watch for a gradual move higher.
• Gold lacked a favorable entry, while crude oil could meet descending-channel resistance around 86.8-88.
• Zeyu remained cautious on high-volatility U.S. equity-related instruments and preferred waiting for rebounds before considering bearish setups.

Core Questions

1. Why maintain a short-term bearish BTC setup while preparing a medium-term long?
2. How should the 62,300-59,800 BTC scale-in plan be managed?
3. Why should traders avoid chasing ETH even when it outperforms BTC?
4. How can the 0.5, 0.618, and 0.786 Fibonacci levels help define entry zones?
5. Why must spot and futures positions use different risk rules?

1. Market View: Pullback First, Then Prepare for a Turn

Zeyu’s current view can be summarized as follows: crypto remains under short-term descending-channel pressure, but after nearly two months of consolidation, traders should begin preparing for a potential medium-term recovery.

BTC had traded sideways from June 4 through July 29. The market had previously focused on possible lows at 52,000, 50,000, or even 48,000, but the extended consolidation may be allowing time to replace a deeper price decline. A new low is therefore no longer guaranteed.

The strategy was divided into two horizons:

• Short term: wait for rebounds to establish shorts and avoid chasing price lower.
• Medium term: begin scaling into spot or isolated swing positions when BTC and ETH reach planned pullback zones.

These views are not contradictory. The short-term setup addresses the current descending channel, while the swing plan prepares for a later move higher.

2. Bitcoin (BTC): Short 64.5K-65K, Scale Into Longs at 62.3K-59.8K

2.1 Short-Term Short: 64,500 Filled, 65,000 Pending

The July 29 BTC perpetual futures short plan covered 64,500-65,000. At the time of the livestream, the 64,500 order had filled, while 65,000 had not. The position was only about $150 in profit.

BTC remained inside a broader descending channel. Although the medium-term outlook had begun to improve, 64,500-65,000 was still treated as a rebound resistance zone because the expected pullback had not fully developed.

Zeyu stressed that an existing short should only be increased after a rebound, not while price is already falling. He also reviewed his own mistake: adding to a short during a decline lowered his average entry to roughly 64,600 and increased the psychological pressure of holding the position.

The position-adding rules were:

• Add to shorts only after rebounds.
• Add to longs only after pullbacks.
• Do not increase exposure during a sharp rise or fall.

2.2 Swing Plan: Three Entries Between 62,300 and 59,800

The BTC pullback-long plan used the 0.5, 0.618, and 0.786 Fibonacci retracement areas:

• First zone: around 62,300
• Second zone: around 61,300
• Third zone: around 59,800

If all three entries were filled, the estimated average would be close to 61,000. The reference stop for the swing plan was 58,000, leaving roughly $3,000 of risk from the projected average.

The livestream used an example of 15%-20% total allocation at 20x leverage. This was an instructor-specific example and is not suitable for every trader. High leverage materially increases liquidation and loss risk; traders should reduce both leverage and position size according to their capital, experience, and risk tolerance.

2.3 Why Stop Waiting Only for 48K-52K?

The previous accumulation thesis focused on 48,000-52,000. However, BTC had consolidated since early June without continuing sharply lower. Zeyu therefore adjusted the plan: if time continues to replace price declines, the market may not offer the new lows most participants expect.

The revised framework was:

• Begin scaling into approximately 20% of the planned BTC spot allocation between 60,000 and 62,000.
• Use a separate account for the swing futures setup between 62,300 and 59,800, with a strict stop at 58,000.
• Spot can be accumulated gradually under a long-term plan if price falls further; futures positions must not replace stop-losses with unlimited averaging down.

3. Ethereum (ETH): Short 1,908-1,938, Wait for Deeper Pullback Entries

3.1 ETH Remains Under Descending-Channel Pressure

The July 29 ETH perpetual futures rebound-short zone was 1,908-1,938. At the time of the livestream, the position was near breakeven. A previous short around 1,980 had provided a stronger entry, showing that rebound resistance can remain relevant even when ETH repeatedly outperforms.

ETH had made several short-lived new highs before pulling back. Zeyu argued that chasing these moves can eventually recover, but traders may have to withstand significant drawdowns and psychological pressure. Short-term longs therefore required a deeper pullback.

3.2 Pullback and Spot Accumulation Plan

The main ETH pullback levels were:

• Around 1,745
• Around 1,688
• Primary spot zone: 1,600-1,700

Zeyu and Baize used levels about $100 apart: Baize favored an area closer to 1,845, while Zeyu preferred 1,745. The session emphasized that different trading systems can produce different entries. Traders should understand the logic behind each plan instead of combining every opinion into excessive exposure.

For ETH spot intended for a later market cycle, current prices were already substantially below the previous cycle’s highs. Short-term traders, however, were still advised to wait for better cost rather than chase temporary strength.

4. Trading Lesson: Fibonacci, Entry Confirmation, and Position Discipline

4.1 Using 0.5, 0.618, and 0.786 as Zones

The main educational segment focused on Fibonacci retracements:

• With a high on the left and a low on the right, retracement levels can help identify rebound resistance for shorts.
• With a low on the left and a high on the right, they can help identify pullback support for longs.
• Focus on 0.5, 0.618, and 0.786 as a scale-in area rather than treating one number as an absolute entry.
• Larger timeframes can offer larger potential moves, but they also require more patience and wider stops.

The livestream referenced a high historical win rate based on the instructor’s experience. This is not a guarantee. Fibonacci levels are only a positioning tool and must be combined with trend structure, channels, position sizing, and stop-loss rules.

4.2 Left-Side Versus Right-Side Entries

• Left-side entry: entering before the trend is fully confirmed. It offers a better cost but carries higher failure and stop-loss risk.
• Right-side entry: waiting for a breakout, stabilization, or structural confirmation. It offers more confirmation but usually at a worse price.

Zeyu generally allowed 5%-7% of risk room for left-side swing setups and normally avoided exceeding 8%. Traders who cannot tolerate left-side volatility should wait for right-side confirmation.

4.3 Spot and Futures Require Separate Risk Management

Spot and futures positions cannot use the same averaging logic:

• Spot has no liquidation mechanism and can be accumulated under a long-term plan, but total capital exposure still requires a limit.
• Leveraged futures can be liquidated and therefore require a predefined stop.
• Intraday and swing positions should be isolated in separate accounts so that strategies and emotions do not interfere with each other.

5. Gold: Consolidating Near 4,000, No Need to Chase

Gold shorts had previously been taken around 4,100-4,150, but the subsequent decline was limited and price returned to consolidation near 4,000.

Zeyu saw no favorable long or short entry at current levels and did not favor chasing physical gold, investment bars, or related exposure at elevated prices. He suggested reassessing longer-term allocation if gold moves below 3,500. This was a personal market view from the livestream, not a rejection of gold’s long-term role.

6. Crude Oil: Missed 77-78 Long, Watch 86.8-88 Resistance

The earlier 88-92 crude oil short was reviewed. A later 77-78 long zone came close to triggering before a strong rebound, but the instructor did not participate because the order and community message were not properly tracked.

The next plan was to wait for a rebound into descending-channel resistance:

• Primary watch zone: 86.8-88
• Broader resistance range: 85-90
• Reference stop: near the previous high, but not excessively far away

If price does not reach the planned area, the preferred response is to wait rather than force a trade in the middle of the range.

7. U.S. Equity-Related Instruments: Rising Volatility Risk

The session reviewed Micron, SK Hynix, and SanDisk-related instruments. Zeyu argued that their volatility had become comparable to high-risk altcoins, with premarket moves of 10%-20% becoming possible. These instruments were therefore considered unsuitable for unplanned participation.

He held a cautious, bearish view on the current U.S. equity phase and suggested that continued equity outflows could eventually redirect some liquidity into crypto. This was a capital-rotation hypothesis that still requires confirmation from subsequent market data.

For SanDisk, the approach was to wait for a rebound into Fibonacci resistance before considering a short, with a broad reference zone around 1,250-1,400. The plan did not involve chasing an already extended decline.

No new live U.S. equity trade was issued in this session; this segment was primarily a risk and market-structure review.

8. Core Trading Principles

1. Short rebounds in the near term, but scale into longs only after a meaningful pullback.
2. Do not chase shorts during a decline or chase longs during a sharp rally.
3. Use Fibonacci levels to define zones, not to promise certainty.
4. Left-side entries offer better prices but require wider risk tolerance and strict stops.
5. Spot can be accumulated under a long-term plan; futures positions require predefined stop-losses.
6. Separate intraday and swing strategies into different accounts.
7. Differences between instructors and trading systems are normal; final decisions must come from the trader’s own framework.

9. Livestream Resources and Participation

Users who have not joined the official KTX Lark community can scan the QR code displayed in the upper-right corner or at the end of the livestream. The community shares daily market views, livestream notifications, strategy reviews, and related activities.

Visit KTX Crypto for live market data, spot trading, and perpetual futures.

This article is based on the official KTX Baize Academy Web3 market livestream. All price levels, market views, and position examples are provided solely for education and research. They do not constitute investment advice, guaranteed returns, or trading instructions. Cryptocurrency and leveraged futures are highly volatile and may result in the loss of all invested capital. Make decisions according to your own risk tolerance.