Published in the "Market Analysis" section of KTX Crypto Academy, this recap is based on the official Web3 market livestream by the KTX Crypto Baize Academy. In this session, instructor Baize combined an interest-rate scenario, Fibonacci levels, and Elliott Wave concepts to analyze BTC's current correction and its potential next rebound. He also reviewed the relationship between ETH and BTC and updated the trading plans for SOL, ZEC, HYPE, MU, and SK Hynix.

Instructor: Baize

Platform: Official KTX Chinese Lark Community

Livestream Date: July 28, 2026

Core Topics: BTC 62,300-61,300 pullback-long plan · BTC 70,800/75,400 upside targets · Rate-hike expectations and the "sell the rumor, reassess the news" concept · Five-wave impulse and ABC correction · ETH liquidity and BTC correlation · SOL long entries at 72/70 · ZEC 519-525 short review · HYPE profit-taking near 55.5 · MU long plan near 839

Full Livestream Replay:

The full KTX Baize Trading Academy Web3 market livestream has been uploaded to YouTube.

Key Takeaways

• Baize argued that the current decline is partly connected to market expectations for higher interest rates. Once the bearish expectation is fully priced and officially realized, the market may enter a phase of reassessment.
• BTC has returned to the weekly Fibonacci 0.618 area, while the monthly chart also shows a TD9 reference signal. The broader structure can still be treated as a correction within a potential rebound cycle.
• The BTC four-hour structure can be described as a five-wave impulse followed by an ABC correction, with the focus now on the completion of the C wave.
• The primary BTC contract-long zone is 62,300-61,300. The plan is to wait for price rather than chase above the intended area.
• The first projected BTC resistance target is approximately 70,800, followed by approximately 75,400. These are scenario targets from the livestream, not guaranteed outcomes.
• ETH is stronger than BTC, but Baize attributed part of the recent surge to limited market depth and advised against using ETH's price alone as the primary directional signal.
• ETH, SOL, and other major altcoins should still be evaluated in relation to whether BTC reaches the 62K area.
• The SOL pullback-long plan uses a first entry near 72 and an add-on near 70, corresponding approximately to the Fibonacci 0.5 and 0.618 levels.
• The previous ZEC rebound short at 519-525 reached approximately 522 before falling about 11%. The current plan is neither to chase the short nor bottom-fish.
• The previous HYPE short reached its first target area, and the group took profit around 55.5. Further bearish targets remain on the chart, but chasing after the decline is not recommended.
• The new MU long reference uses an entry near 839, a stop near 780, and a target near 905, creating an approximately 1:1 risk-reward structure.
• Tokenized US equities have fragmented trading sessions and less reliable chart continuity. Baize advised reducing exposure and trading only when the setup and risk controls are explicit.

Core Questions

1. Why wait for BTC at 62,300-61,300 instead of chasing a long above 63K?
2. How were the BTC 70,800 and 75,400 targets derived from wave and Fibonacci analysis?
3. What does it mean when a bearish expectation is already priced before the event?
4. Why is ETH not the preferred directional signal even though it is visibly stronger than BTC?
5. What technical levels support the SOL 72/70 staged long plan?
6. Why should traders avoid chasing ZEC and HYPE shorts after a significant decline?
7. How can the five-wave impulse, ABC correction, and eight-wave cycle help identify the next opportunity?
8. Why should leverage and the weight given to technical analysis differ across assets?

1. Overall Market View: Near-Term Pressure, Medium-Term Rebound Watch

Baize divided the current market into two horizons:

• Near term: Expectations for higher rates continue to pressure risk assets, while BTC, ETH, and SOL have resumed their pullbacks after recent rebounds.
• Medium term: Once the bearish expectation is fully priced and the event itself is realized, the market may enter a new rebound phase.

The livestream emphasized the difference between an expectation and an actual announcement. Markets often trade the expectation before the event. When the decision is formally announced, the prior direction does not necessarily continue. A bearish event "turning positive" does not mean the event itself is positive; it means the market may have already priced the selling pressure.

Baize also noted that large institutions focus on the full interest-rate cycle, not only one hike or cut. Retail traders often react to a single headline, while institutions consider where rates sit within the cycle and how funding costs may evolve over several months.

This macro section should therefore be treated as a scenario. The current correction may not be complete, but a sizable rebound could become possible if BTC reaches the technical zone and confirms a reversal structure.

2. Bitcoin: Waiting for the C Wave at 62,300-61,300

2.1 BTC as the Main Market Signal

Baize described BTC as more than a single asset. Its size and liquidity make it a broad index and directional signal for the crypto market. Compared with ETH and SOL, short-term capital has more difficulty creating an isolated BTC move.

The livestream offered the following practical estimates:

• Technical analysis may account for more than 70% of BTC's directional assessment.
• The corresponding weight for ETH is below 60%.
• For more volatile major altcoins such as SOL, it may be around 50%.

These are not fixed formulas. They illustrate that the easier an asset is to move with concentrated capital, the less reliable chart structure becomes in isolation. Traders should compensate by reducing leverage and position size in more volatile assets.

2.2 Weekly 0.618 and Monthly TD9 Support the Rebound Scenario

On the weekly Fibonacci retracement, BTC has entered the broader 0.618 area. The monthly chart also shows a TD9 reference signal.

Baize therefore viewed the current move as a correction inside a broader rebound cycle rather than a confirmed new one-way bear market. A directional thesis still requires a four-hour setup and a rational entry; the weekly signal alone is not sufficient to open a position.

2.3 Five-Wave Impulse + ABC Correction = Eight-Wave Cycle

The main educational topic was the wave structure:

1. Wave 1: Initial impulse
2. Wave 2: Pullback
3. Wave 3: Acceleration
4. Wave 4: Pullback
5. Wave 5: Exhaustion
6. Wave A: Correction that breaks the prior trend structure
7. Wave B: Corrective rebound
8. Wave C: Final corrective leg

The current BTC four-hour structure was interpreted as an ABC correction after a completed five-wave rise, with the market waiting for the C wave to move lower.

Common reference levels include:

• Wave 2 often retraces 0.5 or 0.618 of Wave 1.
• Wave 4 often retraces 0.382 or 0.5 of Wave 3.
• Wave 3 extension targets can be estimated around 1.272-1.618.
• AB=CD can be used to identify a possible equal-distance objective.

These ratios build a trade scenario. They do not replace stop-losses or position management.

2.4 Contract-Long Plan: 62,300-61,300

The main BTC perpetual watch zone is:

• First level: approximately 62,300
• Second level: approximately 61,300

The chart places the 0.5 retracement near 62,350 and the 0.618 retracement near 61,270, which the livestream rounded to 62,300 and 61,300 for execution.

Baize had previously continued shorting BTC rebounds with the aim of closing the short thesis in this region and then reassessing for a long. The logic is not to remain permanently bearish. It is to change direction when the prior downside target is completed and the broader structure supports a reversal.

If BTC does not reach the planned area, the strategy is not to chase. Location, structure, and risk-reward must align.

2.5 Upside Targets: 70,800 and 75,400

If BTC completes the correction at 62,300-61,300 and turns higher, the livestream projected:

• First resistance target: approximately 70,800
• Second resistance target: approximately 75,400

The first level is close to an AB=CD equal-distance target, while the second is near a Fibonacci extension area. From 62,300, the projected moves are approximately 15% and 22%.

Baize estimated that a valid third-wave acceleration could advance rapidly, potentially within approximately two weeks. This remains a technical scenario. Actual execution still requires confirmation from the breakout, retest, volume, and market structure.

3. Ethereum: Stronger Than BTC, but BTC Remains the Main Signal

3.1 ETH Shows a Similar Wave Structure

ETH perpetual contracts can also be interpreted as a five-wave rise followed by an ABC correction. ETH's local rebound has been stronger than BTC's, and its prior rising structure has not been damaged as clearly.

However, stronger price action does not mean lower risk. ETH has less market depth than BTC, so a relatively small amount of capital can create a larger move when overall liquidity is limited.

3.2 Why Not Chase ETH's Relative Strength?

Baize argued that ETH's latest surge did not show sufficient broad buying volume and was more consistent with a localized move in a thin market.

When a large share of ETH is held passively in wallets or exchange accounts, it does not continuously contribute to order-book depth. With fewer active orders, smaller capital flows can generate a visible price move without confirming a market-wide reversal.

No independent ETH entry was issued in this session. The preferred reference remains BTC:

• If BTC reaches the 62K area and completes the correction, ETH and SOL may be considered closer to their own synchronized opportunity.
• If BTC has not reached the planned zone, do not build a heavy ETH long solely because ETH appears stronger.
• If BTC continues lower, ETH's relative strength may disappear quickly.

4. SOL: Long Near 72, Add Near 70

The SOL perpetual setup treats the current move as a pullback after an initial impulse.

The plan is:

• First entry: long near 72
• Second entry: add near 70

The chart shows the Fibonacci 0.5 level near 71.98 and the 0.618 level near 69.21, which were rounded to 72 and 70 for execution.

SOL was trading near 73.3 during the livestream. It was close to the zone, but the plan remained to wait. If the orders do not fill, there is no trade.

Baize also advised against chasing a new short at the current level. Better short opportunities had already appeared at higher prices, and the risk-reward deteriorates after the decline.

5. ZEC: Review of the 519-525 Short

The previous ZEC perpetual plan waited for a rebound after the neckline breakdown:

519-525

Price rebounded to approximately 522 and then fell, producing an interim move of roughly 11%.

ZEC remains in a clear bearish structure, but Baize did not recommend chasing a short or bottom-fishing:

• Price is too far from the original short-entry zone.
• A long lacks a bottoming signal and right-side confirmation.
• A new rebound resistance zone has not yet formed.

Traders who missed the 519-525 setup should wait for a new rebound structure instead of forcing an entry after the move.

6. HYPE: Profit Taken Near 55.5

The previous HYPE perpetual short chart identified two target areas:

• First target: approximately 58.3
• Second target: approximately 53.8

The community took profit near 55.5, and Baize's own position was also closed.

The broader structure remains bearish, but no new chase-short entry was provided. Price has moved too far from the original setup, leaving it vulnerable to a sharp rebound.

Existing shorts should follow the profit-taking plan. Traders without a position should wait for the next rebound and a new resistance structure.

7. MU and SK Hynix: Trade Tokenized Equities Only With Explicit Risk

7.1 MU: Long at 839, Stop at 780, Target at 905

The previous MU long had already been stopped. The updated reference plan was:

• Entry: approximately 839
• Stop: approximately 780
• Target: approximately 905

This is a short-term plan with an approximately 1:1 risk-reward ratio, based on a historical support zone and an expected rebound after the market opens. A confirmed break below support invalidates the trade. A failed short-term position should not be converted into a long-term holding.

7.2 SK Hynix: Bearish Bias, but No New Verifiable Entry

The previous SK Hynix short produced more than $4,000 in realized profit, and the livestream reviewed Baize's existing bearish view.

However, tokenized equity charts have session gaps and inconsistent historical continuity. The session did not establish a new verifiable combination of entry, stop, and target. Baize explicitly advised trading US equity tokens less frequently and participating only when the symbol, level, and risk controls are clear.

8. Core Trading Lessons

8.1 Expectations and Event Outcomes Are Different

Markets may complete most of a decline before an announcement. If the event contains no new negative surprise, selling pressure can weaken after the release. Traders must determine whether the market is pricing the expectation or reacting to the confirmed result.

8.2 Major Altcoins Are Not Truly "In Position" Until BTC Is

Short-term ETH and SOL strength may come from capital rotation or shallow market depth. Until BTC completes its correction, an isolated altcoin rally is not sufficient evidence of a broad reversal.

8.3 Use Different Leverage Across Assets

BTC is relatively stable and may tolerate somewhat higher leverage within a controlled risk plan. ETH and SOL are more volatile and require lower leverage and smaller positions. The account-level risk should remain consistent even when leverage numbers differ.

8.4 Trade Effective Setups, Not Every Day

Baize emphasized that genuinely large opportunities are limited. Traders need two abilities:

1. Identify the opportunity.
2. Execute the plan when it appears.

Most range-bound movement does not require participation. Missing a trade does not justify entering after the move is already over.

8.5 Price Targets Do Not Replace Risk Controls

The 70,800 and 75,400 targets come from Fibonacci extensions, wave projections, and AB=CD analysis. They describe a possible path, not a promise. Execution still requires stops, staged profit-taking, and reassessment as volume and structure change.

9. Core Trading Principles

1. Bearish expectations may be priced early: Reassess the market when the event is formally realized.
2. BTC remains the main signal: Independent altcoin strength cannot replace confirmation from BTC.
3. Wait for the pullback zone: BTC at 62,300-61,300 and SOL at 72/70.
4. Do not chase after a decline: ZEC and HYPE have moved away from their original entries.
5. Watch ABC after five waves: Use the full eight-wave cycle to identify the market stage.
6. Adjust risk parameters by asset: Higher volatility requires lower leverage and smaller positions.
7. Manage large targets in stages: Take profit at interim resistance and protect the remainder.
8. No valid setup means no trade: Every livestream does not need to produce a new order.
9. Short-term trades require stops: MU should exit below 780 rather than changing the trade thesis.
10. Combine macro background with technical execution: The rate cycle defines context; chart location defines the trade.

10. Livestream Resources and Participation

Users who have not joined the official KTX Lark community can scan the QR code shown in the upper-right corner or at the bottom of the livestream. The group shares daily market views, livestream notices, strategy reviews, and related activities.

This article is based on an official KTX Chinese community livestream and is provided solely for market review and trading-method education. It does not constitute investment advice. The macro views, price targets, and timing estimates are analytical scenarios from the livestream and are not guaranteed outcomes. Cryptocurrency and tokenized equity trading involve substantial risk. Trade according to your own risk tolerance and use appropriate risk controls.