Published in the "Market Analysis" section of KTX Crypto Academy, this recap is based on the official Web3 market livestream by the KTX Crypto Baize Academy. In this session, instructor Zeyu reviewed BTC, ETH, and crude oil short positions, with a particular focus on the stop-loss and re-entry logic following ETH's stronger-than-expected weekend rebound. The session also updated the medium-term plans for BTC at 60,000-62,000 and ETH at 1,600-1,700, while using gold, SK Hynix, SNDK, DEXE, and AAVE to explain partial profit-taking, trailing stops, position sizing, and the Fibonacci 0.618-0.786 strategy in a range-bound market.

Instructor: Zeyu

Platform: Official KTX Chinese Lark Community

Livestream Date: July 27, 2026

Core Topics: BTC 64,666-65,333 short review · BTC 62,400-61,300 contract-long watch zone · BTC 60,000-62,000 spot accumulation plan · ETH 1,877-1,899 short stop-loss review · ETH 1,980-2,020 new short · ETH 1,600-1,700 medium-term plan · Crude oil 88-92 short review · Profit-taking and position management in a range-bound market

Full Livestream Replay:

The full KTX Baize Trading Academy Web3 market livestream has been uploaded to YouTube.

Key Takeaways

• BTC remains inside a descending channel. The weekend short was built between 64,666 and 65,333 at an average near 65,000, with the stop adjusted to approximately 66,222.
• No additional BTC short was added that day because two entries were already filled and concurrent exposure to ETH, crude oil, or other assets would increase total account risk.
• For a pullback, the first BTC contract-long watch zone is 62,400-61,300, with a more favorable deeper zone at 60,500-59,700.
• The BTC spot plan remains focused on 60,000-62,000, beginning with an allocation of approximately 20% and adding gradually if price moves lower.
• The weekend ETH short at 1,877-1,899 averaged approximately 1,888 and was stopped after price broke above 1,922.
• The new ETH rebound-short zone is 1,980-2,020. The first entry at 1,980 had already filled during the livestream and briefly produced approximately $33 of room.
• Heavy ETH longs around 1,900 are not recommended. Repeated "small pullback, then new high" patterns can create dangerous habitual expectations.
• The medium-term ETH contract and spot plan remains at 1,600-1,700. The contract risk-control example used an average entry near 1,650 and a stop at 1,550.
• The crude oil short at 88-92 averaged approximately 90 and moved as low as the 82 area, creating meaningful profit and allowing a partial position reduction.
• Gold, SK Hynix, and SNDK do not currently justify forced entries. If the planned setup does not appear, the correct action is to keep waiting.
• DEXE fell rapidly from around 50 to low single digits. It should not be treated as a conventional investment and, if traded at all, should only use a tiny amount the trader can fully lose.
• The current environment is neither a clear bull trend nor a clear bear trend. In a range-bound market, profits should be realized progressively instead of holding every position as if a sustained trend were guaranteed.

Core Questions

1. With BTC still inside a descending channel, how should the 65K short be managed?
2. What is the difference between the BTC 62,400-61,300 and 60,500-59,700 trade zones?
3. Why is the BTC spot plan centered on 60,000-62,000 with an initial allocation of approximately 20%?
4. Why was the ETH 1,877-1,899 short stopped, and why was it still reasonable to short again at 1,980-2,020?
5. Why is repeatedly buying ETH near 1,900 not recommended?
6. How should spot and contract exposure be handled differently in the ETH 1,600-1,700 plan?
7. Why should part of the profitable crude oil short be closed instead of holding the full position indefinitely?
8. Why are partial profit-taking, trailing stops, and consistent position sizing more important than directional prediction in a range-bound market?

1. Overall Market View: The Market Remains Range-Bound

Zeyu's assessment was that BTC is moving in a relatively orderly way, while ETH is visibly stronger and has repeatedly made new highs, but the market as a whole has not established a stable one-way trend.

For nearly two months, BTC has mainly traded between approximately 58,000 and 67,000. It has neither achieved a confirmed breakout nor sustained a breakdown. As a result, traders should not simply apply bull-market breakout chasing or bear-market trend-short management to the current environment.

The basic approach for a range-bound market is:

1. Take one-quarter, one-third, or one-half of the profit progressively.
2. Protect the remaining position with a break-even or trailing stop.
3. Do not chase shorts after an extended decline or chase longs without a pullback.
4. When no clear trend exists, reduce aggressive position rolling and prioritize realized profit.
5. If position size begins to affect sleep or daily life, reduce risk proactively.

The most important change in this session came from ETH. The weekend short was stopped as price continued higher, but the trading framework was not abandoned. Instead, Zeyu waited for ETH to reach a higher Fibonacci zone before entering a new short.

2. Bitcoin (BTC): The Descending Channel Remains Intact

2.1 Review of the 64,666-65,333 Short

BTC perpetual contracts remain inside a descending channel. The weekend short-entry range was approximately 64,666-65,333, with an average near 65,000. Zeyu's remaining personal position had a slightly higher cost basis near 65,800-65,900.

The stop was adjusted to approximately 66,222, but a third entry was not added. This did not mean that the bearish setup had failed. The reason was total account exposure: holding BTC together with ETH, crude oil, gold, or tokenized equities can raise aggregate risk quickly.

Part of the earlier BTC short near 65,800 had already been closed around 65,000. The plan was then to wait for a rebound toward 65,777-66,333 before rebuilding part of the short. This illustrates the current rolling method: realize profit first, then wait for a rebound instead of chasing price lower.

2.2 Contract-Long Zones After a Pullback

Based on the daily Fibonacci retracement, the next BTC long setup can be divided into two zones:

• First watch zone: 62,400-61,300
• More favorable deeper zone: 60,500-59,700

The 59,700 area is close to the deeper 0.786 retracement. If price genuinely reaches the 0.618-0.786 zone, the risk-reward ratio should be more attractive than buying in the middle of the range.

No new long order was issued immediately because traders already holding a sizable short could otherwise layer on a long too early. The proper sequence is to manage the existing short first and reassess only when price reaches the planned area.

2.3 Spot Plan at 60,000-62,000

The BTC spot plan continues to focus on 60,000-62,000, with an initial allocation of approximately 20%.

If BTC later falls toward 50,000, more can be added at lower prices. If no deeper decline occurs, the trader will at least have established a partial base position. Because BTC has remained in a broad range since early June, the strategy has shifted from waiting only for an extreme low to starting a partial position at a major planned zone.

3. Ethereum (ETH): Previous Short Stopped, New Short at 1,980-2,020

3.1 Review of the Weekend Stop-Loss

The weekend ETH perpetual short-entry range was:

1,877-1,899

The average was approximately 1,888, with a stop at 1,922, creating about $34 of risk. ETH broke above 1,922 and continued higher, so the short was stopped as planned.

The key execution lesson was not that a stop should have been avoided. The problem was that the short had previously moved into profit, yet without partial profit-taking or break-even protection, a profitable position could still turn into a full stop-loss.

3.2 New Short Zone: 1,980-2,020

After the stop, Zeyu did not chase a new entry in the middle of the move. He waited for ETH to rebound toward the major 0.5 Fibonacci level.

The new short zone was:

1,980-2,020

The first entry at 1,980 had already filled during the livestream, after which price pulled back by approximately $33. Because the previous trade had filled two entries while the new trade had filled only one, the price movement alone did not mean the prior loss had been fully recovered.

This trade demonstrated two principles:

• A trader may continue following the system after a stop-loss.
• A re-entry must wait for a new rational price zone and cannot be driven by the urge to win back a loss immediately.

3.3 Why Heavy Longs Near 1,900 Are Not Recommended

ETH has repeatedly followed a similar path: a new high, a shallow pullback, and another new high. Once this pattern repeats several times, traders can become conditioned to believe that every pullback should be bought.

If ETH returns to approximately 1,900, a small exploratory long is a personal choice, but it should not be treated as a high-conviction setup because:

• The pullback remains shallow.
• The same pattern has already repeated several times.
• Range-bound markets often change behavior after a consensus habit forms.
• ETH is currently stronger than BTC, making its short-term rhythm harder to judge.

3.4 Medium-Term Plan Remains at 1,600-1,700

The medium-term ETH contract and spot accumulation zone remains:

• Entry zone: 1,600-1,700
• Illustrative average cost: approximately 1,650
• Contract stop-loss example: 1,550
• Initial spot plan: approximately 20%, followed by gradual additions on further pullbacks

Risking approximately $100 for the possibility of capturing several hundred dollars of rebound offers a more reasonable risk-reward profile. Spot positions do not face liquidation, while leveraged contracts still require explicit position sizing and stop-loss control.

4. Gold and Crude Oil: Wait on Gold, Realize Oil Profits

4.1 Gold: No Setup, No Trade

The previous gold short was built at approximately 4,100-4,150. Price fell below 3,900, but Zeyu did not realize enough profit near the low. The remaining short was later closed above 4,000 after price broke the descending structure.

Gold has not reached an attractive pullback zone, so there is no reason to force either a long or a short. The Fibonacci 0.618-0.786 zone remains a reference, but price, structure, and risk-reward must align before execution.

4.2 Crude Oil: The 88-92 Short Reached the 82 Area

Crude oil previously produced a short setup near the descending trend line and the 0.5 Fibonacci level:

• Entry zone: 88-92
• Average: approximately 90
• Lowest level before the livestream: approximately 82

From an average of 90, the maximum short-term move was approximately $8. Zeyu reduced an original position of roughly 900 units to about 450 units as the trade moved into profit.

The lesson is straightforward: once a target is reached in a range-bound market, reduce part of the position. Even if the medium-term view remains bearish, a continued one-way decline should not be assumed.

5. SK Hynix and SNDK: Previous Short Opportunities Have Ended

5.1 SK Hynix: A Long-Running Descending Channel Raises Breakout Risk

SK Hynix had previously provided multiple short opportunities along a descending channel, but that structure has now persisted for an extended period. The longer a trend continues, the greater the risk of an eventual upside breakout.

Zeyu does not currently plan to continue shorting SK Hynix. Unless the price produces a clear collapse and forms a new bearish structure, the risk-reward of following the old channel has declined.

5.2 SNDK: The 1,575 Short Was Stopped at 1,666

The previous SNDK short averaged approximately 1,575. The plan was to add at 1,700-1,750, but price did not reach the intended add-on zone before triggering the stop near 1,666.