This article is published under "Market Analysis" at KTX Crypto Academy and is based on the official Web3 market livestream by Baize Academy at KTX Crypto. This session focused on BTC's short-term pullback and medium-term bullish structure, the right-side ETH short after a key breakdown, the SOL long plan after a correction, and trading opportunities in ZEC, HYPE, and SK Hynix. Instructor Baize also explained how to combine Elliott Wave analysis, Fibonacci retracements, and the 1-2-3 rule to confirm direction, wait for a retest, and avoid blindly buying every support level.

Instructor: Baize

Livestream Platform: Official KTX Chinese Lark Community

Livestream Date: July 23, 2026

Core Topics: BTC short at 66,200 · BTC pullback plan at 62,300/61,300 · ETH short at 1,915-1,921 · ETH targets and long zones at 1,741/1,688 · SOL pullback plan at 72/69 · ZEC rebound short near 525 · HYPE breakdown strategy at 58 · SK Hynix short near 1,294

Full Livestream Replay:

The full KTX Baize Trading Academy Web3 market livestream has been uploaded to YouTube.

Key Takeaways

• BTC's weekly 0.618 rebound and monthly TD9 still support a medium-term bullish view, but the one-hour and four-hour structures show a clear need for a pullback.
• The BTC short shared in the community was set around 66,200, based on a major resistance zone, an uptrend-line breakdown, and the one-hour 1-2-3 rule.
• The BTC long zones after a pullback are 62,300 and 61,300, corresponding to the higher-timeframe Fibonacci 0.5 and 0.618 levels.
• ETH remains bearish in the short term. A rebound into 1,915-1,921 may offer a short setup, with 1,741 and 1,688 as the main targets.
• ETH's 1,741 and 1,688 levels are also potential long zones after the correction. Spot and leveraged positions require different allocation logic.
• SOL is expected to pull back toward 72 and 69. Long setups may be reassessed near 72, while 69 is the deeper key retracement level.
• ZEC broke below a converging triangle and the 526 neckline. A rebound toward 525 may offer another short setup, with targets near 495 and 456-460.
• HYPE is currently near support at 58-59, so chasing a short is not recommended. A right-side short may be considered after a confirmed breakdown and failed retest of 58.
• A new SK Hynix short was opened near 1,294, based on a support-to-resistance flip and descending-channel resistance.
• Traders should not make decisions solely because price has risen or fallen. First confirm the trend, breakout, and retest, then execute a right-side strategy.

Key Questions From This Session

1. Why does the medium-term BTC outlook remain bullish while a short is taken near 66,200?
2. Why are 62,300 and 61,300 the key BTC long zones after a pullback?
3. Why is a rebound short more appropriate after ETH breaks below 1,900?
4. How can 1,741 and 1,688 serve as both ETH short targets and potential long zones?
5. After ZEC breaks below its converging triangle, what do 525, 495, and 456 represent?
6. Why should traders avoid chasing HYPE at its current level, and which three possible paths should they wait for?
7. How can Elliott Wave analysis, Fibonacci retracements, and the 1-2-3 rule be combined into a complete trading plan?
8. Why does buying every support and shorting every resistance often lead to repeated losses?

1. Previous Strategy Review: ZEC, HYPE, and SK Hynix Delivered, While MU and SNDK Hit Their Stops

At the beginning of the livestream, Instructor Baize reviewed the strategies shared during the previous session and in the community:

• BTC did not reach the ideal short entry, but the previously identified upper resistance zone remained effective.
• The ETH short was opened and remained near its average entry while the position continued to be held.
• The SOL short declined from the resistance zone, confirming the original directional view.
• ZEC and HYPE both declined according to their right-side breakdown structures and became two of the clearer profitable setups from the previous session.
• The MU and SNDK shorts hit their stop-losses. The SNDK trade was opened near 1,500 and stopped near 1,570, a price move of approximately 4%.
• Profits had already been taken on the previous SK Hynix short, and a new short opportunity appeared during this session.

The main lesson was not that every trade must win, but that planned stop-losses must be separated from positions that are moving correctly. The limited losses in MU and SNDK did not disrupt the broader strategy, while the clearer structures in ZEC, HYPE, and SK Hynix provided larger profit potential.

2. Bitcoin (BTC): Short at 66,200 While Maintaining a Medium-Term Bullish View

2.1 Why Does the Short-Term Outlook Remain Bearish?

The BTC perpetual contract returned to a major resistance zone on the four-hour chart and showed weakening upside momentum. On the one-hour chart:

• The rising trendline has been broken.
• Successively lower highs are forming a new bearish structure.
• A one-hour 1-2-3 reversal pattern has appeared.
• Momentum weakened noticeably near the end of the five-wave advance.

Based on these conditions, the community shared a short entry near 66,200. This was a limit-order strategy based on an expected rebound into previous resistance, not a recommendation to chase price after it had already fallen. The exact stop-loss and take-profit levels remained those shared with the original community signal and were not repeated during the livestream.

2.2 Short-Term Bearishness and Medium-Term Bullishness Are Not Contradictory

Instructor Baize emphasized that BTC's higher and lower timeframes must be assessed separately:

• The weekly chart remains within a Fibonacci 0.618 rebound structure.
• The monthly chart shows a TD9 reversal signal.
• A double bottom, or 2B structure, formed near the bottom with increasing bullish volume.
• The one-hour and four-hour charts still show a clear need for an ABC correction.

The current strategy is therefore not to remain bearish over the long term. It is to trade the short-term correction first and then look for a new long setup at lower levels.

2.3 Two Long Zones After the Pullback

By combining the current five-wave advance into a higher-timeframe Wave 1 and measuring the expected Wave 2 retracement with Fibonacci, two key levels emerge:

First Reference: 62,300 (Fibonacci 0.5)

Second Reference: 61,300 (Fibonacci 0.618)

These are long and spot accumulation zones after a pullback, not levels for chasing the current market price. If BTC reaches 62,300, an initial position may be considered. If it continues toward 61,300, a second allocation may be added. Position sizes should be planned in advance instead of entering with a full allocation at the first level.

If BTC breaks directly above the major resistance zone instead, traders should wait for a confirmed retest before entering according to the new bullish structure.

3. Ethereum (ETH): Key Breakdown With Short Targets at 1,741 and 1,688

3.1 Higher-Timeframe Bullishness, but a Weaker Short-Term Structure

ETH has a higher-timeframe outlook similar to BTC. Weekly and monthly rebound potential remains, but the short-term structure has weakened significantly.

The four-hour and one-hour charts show:

• The five-wave advance is approaching completion, and the final wave only moved slightly above the previous high, signaling weaker momentum.
• A 2B structure formed after liquidity was taken near the top.
• The rising trendline has been broken.
• Lower highs are gradually forming a 1-2-3 bearish structure.
• After consolidating for approximately two days and ten hours, price broke downward and selected a direction.

3.2 Current Short and Target Zones

The rebound-short zone for the ETH perpetual contract is:

Entry Reference: 1,915-1,921

First Target: 1,741

Second Target: 1,688

4. SOL: Watching 72 and 69 Before Reassessing Longs

The SOL perpetual contract declined from resistance near 79 toward 77, giving the previous short some profit room.

Based on the Fibonacci retracement of the current advance:

• Around 72: Fibonacci 0.5, where a pullback long may first be reassessed.
• Around 69: Fibonacci 0.618, representing the deeper key retracement zone.
• A confirmed breakdown below 69 would require the existing bullish wave structure to be reassessed.

The SOL strategy is to trade the correction first and then look for a long at lower levels. SOL was not treated as the clearest primary setup during the session, so waiting for the 72-69 zone is preferable to chasing price in the middle of the range.

5. ZEC: Converging-Triangle Breakdown and a Rebound Short Near 525

The ZEC perpetual contract presented one of the clearest right-side short structures in the session.

The current setup developed through four stages:

1. The rising and descending trendlines formed a converging triangle.
2. Price broke below the triangle.
3. The rebound failed to break the descending trendline.
4. The neckline near 526 was then broken decisively.

The revised strategy is therefore to wait for a rebound toward 525-526 before reassessing a short, rather than chasing price near 510.

Take-Profit References:

• First target: 495-501
• Second target: 456-461
• Main medium-term downside area: Around 460

Invalidation Condition: A high-volume breakout above the descending trendline.

This strategy is based on right-side confirmation. Although 495 and 456 appear as support levels on the chart, they should first be treated as short take-profit zones under the current bearish trend, not automatic long entries.

6. HYPE: Do Not Chase the Current Level; Wait for One of Three Right-Side Paths

The previous HYPE perpetual contract short has already reached its first take-profit area:

• First take-profit: Around 58
• Second take-profit: Around 54

HYPE traded near 59 during the livestream and was already close to support at 58-59. Traders without an existing position should therefore avoid chasing a market short. Three possible paths may create a better setup:

1. Price rebounds to the upper resistance zone and turns lower again.
2. Price rebounds to the descending trendline and is rejected.
3. Price breaks below 58, then retests 58 and fails to reclaim it.

Existing short positions can continue to manage risk around the first and second take-profit zones. Traders without a position should wait for a rebound or confirmed breakdown. Shorting directly into support produces a weaker risk-reward ratio and a less practical stop-loss.

7. SK Hynix, MU, and SNDK: Different Structures Require Different Strategies

7.1 SK Hynix: New Short Near 1,294

The previous SK Hynix perpetual contract short had already generated profit. During this session, price returned to approximately 1,294 and Instructor Baize opened another short.

The short thesis was based on:

• Previous strong support becoming strong resistance.
• The neckline overlapping with the resistance zone.
• Price remaining inside a descending channel.
• The rebound failing to break above the descending trendline.

By the later part of the livestream, price had declined to around 1,277. Instructor Baize noted that the Korean equity and the tokenized stock price may trade at a premium or discount to each other, but their structures are broadly aligned. The analysis should focus on structure rather than absolute price differences.

7.2 MU: Bullish After Breaking the Descending Channel, but Observation Only

The previous MU perpetual contract short was stopped out. Price has now broken above its descending channel and completed a retest of the breakout area, shifting the technical view from bearish to bullish.

However, Instructor Baize treated MU as an observation rather than an active trade because the expected upside did not appear attractive enough.

7.3 SNDK: Small Stop-Loss and No Longer a Priority

The previous SNDK perpetual contract short was opened near 1,500 and stopped around 1,570, a move of approximately 4%. Because its recent price action has not followed conventional technical structures consistently, SNDK will not be treated as a priority asset for the time being.

8. Trading Lessons: Why Right-Side Trading Is More Reliable Than Blindly Buying a Dip

8.1 Confirm the Direction Before Discussing Support and Resistance

Support and resistance are not automatic buy and sell buttons. Resistance can break during an uptrend, while support can fail repeatedly during a downtrend.

Once a bearish structure has been confirmed, rebounds are generally opportunities to look for shorts, while previous support levels may be better used as take-profit references rather than immediate long entries.

8.2 Right-Side Trading Requires Three Steps

The right-side logic used repeatedly during this session can be summarized as:

1. A key trendline, neckline, or consolidation range is broken decisively.
2. Price retests the original key level.
3. Price fails to reclaim the level, confirming an entry in the breakout direction.

This method gives up the earliest part of a move but reduces the repeated stop-losses caused by trying to call tops or bottoms before the direction is confirmed.

8.3 Elliott Wave Analysis Builds the Scenario, While Price Action Confirms It

Instructor Baize combined the smaller 1-2-3-4-5 sequence into a higher-timeframe Wave 1, projected an ABC correction for Wave 2, and used the Fibonacci 0.5 and 0.618 levels to estimate potential targets.

However, Elliott Wave analysis is still a forecasting tool. Execution should also consider:

• Whether a trendline has broken.
• Whether a neckline has failed.
• Whether a retest is confirmed.
• Whether volume supports the move.
• Whether the highs and lows form a 1-2-3 structure.

The forecast creates a possible route; price action determines whether the trade should actually be executed.

8.4 Execute When a Valid Opportunity Appears

Instructor Baize warned against placing every trade at an extreme price. A trader who insists on shorting BTC only at 120,000 or buying only near 40,000 may go an entire year without a valid trade.

A more practical approach is to define the direction, entry zone, invalidation condition, and position size in advance. Once price reaches the area and confirms the setup, execute according to the plan instead of chasing the market emotionally.

9. Core Trading Principles

1. BTC currently has a higher-timeframe bullish structure and a lower-timeframe correction. The two views must be managed on different timeframes.
2. Do not chase a short after price has already fallen. Prefer a rebound into resistance or a retest after a confirmed breakdown.
3. BTC at 62,300 and 61,300, and ETH at 1,741 and 1,688, should be handled through staged entries rather than a full position at once.
4. Support levels on ZEC and HYPE are first take-profit references for shorts, not automatic long signals.
5. Spot positions can be accumulated gradually, while leveraged contracts require defined stop-losses. The two allocation systems must not be mixed.
6. A projected path is not a guaranteed result. Execute only after price completes the breakout, retest, and confirmation.
7. Stop-losses are part of the trading system. Small losses in MU and SNDK should not interfere with the next valid setup.
8. Unfamiliar assets or instruments with unreliable technical structures can be avoided so attention remains focused on clearer opportunities.

10. Livestream Resources and How to Join

Users who have not yet joined the official KTX Lark community can scan the QR code shown in the upper-right corner or at the bottom of the livestream. The community shares daily market views, livestream notifications, strategy reviews, and related events.

This article is based on the official KTX Baize Academy Web3 market livestream. All market analysis, price levels, and trading strategies are provided solely as a recap of the livestream and do not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency, futures, and tokenized stock trading involve substantial risk. Please make decisions according to your own risk tolerance and always use strict risk controls.