Published in the "Market Analysis" section of KTX Crypto Academy, this article is based on the official Web3 market livestream by KTX Crypto Baize Academy. This session focuses on how to approach BTC as it nears the 67K-68K resistance zone, the ETH 8-hour double-top short setup, key structures in SOL and ZEC, and a confirmation-based HYPE short after support turned into resistance.
Instructor: Baize
Livestream Platform: KTX Official Chinese Lark Group
Core Topics: BTC Resistance Watch · ETH 1930 Short · SOL 78.4 Setup · ZEC Confirmation-Based Short · HYPE Support-Resistance Flip · 1-2-3 Reversal Method
Full Livestream Replay:
The full KTX Baize Trading Academy Web3 market livestream has been uploaded to YouTube.
Key Takeaways
- BTC's short-term volume is gradually weakening, with dense resistance between 67,000 and 68,000. This is not an ideal location to chase longs or open an early short.
- ETH short reference: 1,925-1,930 entry, 1,960 stop-loss, and 1,901 first target.
- Take profit on the previous SOL long. New SOL short reference: 78.4 entry, 80 stop-loss, and 76.4 take-profit.
- ZEC confirmation-based short reference: 539-542, with the structure invalidated above 570 and downside targets at 530, 501, and 461.
- HYPE short reference: 62.4, with a stop-loss at 69.5 and staged targets at 58.7 and 53.6.
- Key lessons include volume confirmation, anticipatory versus confirmation-based trading, the 1-2-3 reversal method, trendlines, and support-resistance flips.
Core Questions
- As BTC approaches the 67K-68K resistance zone, should traders chase the rally, open a short, or keep waiting?
- What is the structural basis for the ETH short between 1,925 and 1,930?
- Why should traders close the SOL long before watching for a short near 78.4?
- Why do ZEC and HYPE offer clearer confirmation-based short structures?
- How can volume, the 1-2-3 reversal method, and support-resistance flips improve trade confirmation?
- Why must anticipatory trades always use a strict stop-loss?
1. Overall Market View: Higher Timeframes Support a Rebound, but Short-Term Price Is Entering Resistance
Baize believes BTC still has a basis for a rebound on the weekly and monthly charts. However, its short-term advance is slowing, while trading volume is weakening in stages. With price already close to major overhead resistance, neither side currently offers a comfortable entry.
The main BTC strategy in this session is therefore to wait for a clear market reaction at resistance rather than opening a position immediately:
- If BTC enters the 67,000-68,000 zone and fails to break through after two or three attempts, watch for a short-term short setup.
- If price breaks above resistance decisively and confirms the breakout with a successful retest, look for another trend-following long opportunity.
- Until a breakout or clear weakness appears, do not chase longs or open an oversized early short in an attempt to call the top.
The higher and lower timeframes are not fully aligned. Higher timeframes still support a rebound, while the short-term chart is approaching resistance. Under these conditions, waiting is more important than guessing the next direction.
2. Bitcoin (BTC): Long Closed Early; Wait for the Market's Reaction at 67K-68K
2.1 Review of the Previous Long
Baize had previously focused on a BTC long and closed the entire position near 65,200. BTC was already trading above 66,200 during the livestream, meaning the exit was somewhat early. However, the reasons for reducing exposure were still valid:
- Volume gradually declined during the advance.
- Price continued to print higher highs, but its upward momentum slowed noticeably.
- BTC was approaching an area of heavy historical trading activity and resistance.
The purpose of a trade review is not to demand a perfect exit at the exact top. The priority is to secure existing profits once the original setup loses certainty.
2.2 Why There Is No Trade at the Current Price
Opening a short now would still be anticipatory because BTC has not fully tested the 67K-68K resistance zone. Opening a long would mean chasing price directly below resistance, which also offers an unattractive risk-reward profile.
Two more reasonable plans are:
- If price is rejected repeatedly at resistance and then shows a high-volume decline or clear weakness, consider a BTC perpetual futures short.
- If BTC breaks through resistance decisively, wait for a successful retest before considering a long.
The Fibonacci retracement zone and key monthly moving-average support remain worth monitoring on the weekly chart, but these higher-timeframe signals cannot replace a valid short-term entry trigger.
3. Ethereum (ETH): 8-Hour Double-Top Resistance; Anticipatory Shorts Require a Strict Stop
3.1 Review of the Long Exit
ETH has shown stronger momentum than BTC. After pulling back to an ascending trendline and support zone, ETH formed a bullish hammer with a long lower wick. Based on that structure, Baize continued holding the long and closed the entire position between 1,900 and 1,902.
The key characteristics of a bullish hammer are clear support below price and a long lower wick, indicating strong buying interest during the decline. However, a single candlestick should never be used in isolation. It must be evaluated together with the trendline and support zone.
3.2 Current Short Setup
Reference Entry: 1,925-1,930
Stop-Loss: 1,960
First Take-Profit: 1,901
For an entry at a higher price, such as around 1,941, the stop may be adjusted to approximately 1,970 based on the actual entry cost. The stop-loss must not be removed.
The ETH perpetual futures short is based on the following factors:
- An 8-hour double-top resistance structure is present.
- Volume during the current advance is substantially lower than during previous upward legs, indicating a low-volume rebound.
- The current zone overlaps with former support that has turned into resistance after being broken.
- ETH is moving faster than BTC and may reach its interim resistance before BTC does.
3.3 Why Is This an Anticipatory Trade?
The double top, weakening volume, and historical resistance may all still be broken. Entering before the trend has clearly turned bearish therefore remains an anticipatory, or left-side, trade.
This type of trade is acceptable only with a smaller position, a clearly defined stop-loss, and a risk-reward calculation completed before entry. This setup uses a short-term risk-reward profile close to 1:1. The objective is not to maximize profit on one trade, but to keep the maximum possible loss under control.
4. SOL: After Taking Profit on the Long, Watch for a Short Near 78.4
Baize previously opened a SOL long near 76. After price rebounded above 78, he no longer recommended holding the remaining position because SOL had entered high-level consolidation within a five-wave structure.
The 0.236 Fibonacci level near 79.08 is acting as resistance. Price has attempted to break through several times without success, while one-hour buying volume is gradually weakening.
SOL Short Setup:
- Reference entry: Near 78.4
- Stop-loss: 80
- Take-profit: 76.4
Do not chase the short. Wait for price to rebound toward resistance and assess whether volume continues to weaken, price is rejected, or another breakout attempt fails.
5. ZEC: Ascending Trendline Lost; Confirmation-Based Short Structure Established
The main difference between ZEC and ETH is that ZEC has already produced clearer confirmation of a bearish reversal.
Price had continued rising along an ascending trendline, but then showed the following developments:
- The latest high failed to exceed the previous high.
- The latest low fell below the previous low.
- The ascending trendline was decisively broken.
- Price retested the former trendline and neckline before being rejected again.
Together, these conditions form a classic 1-2-3 trend-reversal structure.
ZEC Short Setup:
- Reference entry: Scale into a short between 539 and 542
- Structural stop-loss: Above 570
- Staged take-profit targets: 530, 501, and 461
The 570 level is the key structural boundary for this trade. As long as price remains below it, the overall bias stays bearish. A confirmed break above 570 would require the original short thesis to be reassessed.
6. HYPE: Retest After Support Breakdown; Watch for a Short Near 62.4
HYPE has broken below its previous key support and was rejected when it retested the same area, forming a classic support-to-resistance flip. Price also remains capped by a descending trendline, creating a clearer confirmation-based bearish structure than a simple attempt to call the top.
HYPE Short Setup:
- Reference entry: Near 62.4
- Stop-loss: 69.5
- Pattern-based take-profit targets: 58.7 and 53.6
- For a 1:1 risk-reward approach, the 55.5 take-profit level shared in the group may also be used as a reference.
The key to this trade is the structure rather than the entry level alone. Once former support is broken and price fails to reclaim it on a retest, that support naturally becomes new resistance.
7. Tokenized U.S. Equity Watch: SNDK Support-Resistance Flip
The latter part of the livestream also covered tokenized U.S. equities such as MU and SNDK. Compared with some small-cap altcoins, these instruments often display cleaner trendlines and support-resistance structures.
SNDK had repeatedly found support in the same area. After breaking below it, price retested the zone and formed a relatively standard support-to-resistance flip.
SNDK Reference Setup:
- Reference entry: Short near 1,495
- Stop-loss: 1,570
- Take-profit: 1,401
This setup was presented as an additional market observation and should not be treated as part of the core cryptocurrency strategies covering BTC, ETH, SOL, ZEC, and HYPE.
8. Trading Lessons
8.1 Volume Determines the Reliability of a Breakout
A valid trend normally requires supporting volume. If price continues rising while volume declines, active buying pressure is weakening and the probability of a reliable breakout above key resistance decreases.
8.2 Anticipatory and Confirmation-Based Trading
- Anticipatory trading: Entering near support or resistance before a reversal is confirmed, as in the ETH short setup in this session.
- Confirmation-based trading: Entering after a trendline break, a lower low, and a failed retest, as in the ZEC and HYPE short setups.
Anticipatory trades carry greater uncertainty and therefore require smaller positions and strict stops. Confirmation-based setups offer clearer evidence, but their invalidation levels must still be respected.
8.3 The 1-2-3 Trend-Reversal Method
To determine whether an uptrend may be turning bearish, watch for three conditions:
- The new high is lower than the previous high.
- The new low is lower than the previous low.
- The original ascending trendline is decisively broken.
Once all three conditions appear, a retest of the trendline or neckline resistance generally offers a stronger basis for a trade than attempting to predict the exact top.
8.4 Support-Resistance Flips
A support level that has been validated repeatedly often turns into resistance after a decisive breakdown. If price retests the area but fails to reclaim it, the rejection becomes an important confirmation signal for a short.
8.5 Define the Maximum Loss Before a Short-Term Trade
Short-term strategies may use a risk-reward ratio close to 1:1. The priority is to define both the stop-loss and take-profit before entering. Traders should not expand their risk simply because price is approaching the original stop.
9. Core Trading Principles
- Neither long nor short entries are attractive for BTC at the current location. Wait for the market's reaction at resistance instead of forcing a trade.
- Profitable trend positions may be closed early. There is no need to exit at the absolute top.
- Anticipatory trades require smaller positions and strict stop-losses. Do not hold a losing position simply because of a subjective view.
- For confirmation-based trades, focus on trend breaks, rejected retests, and support-resistance flips.
- After price reaches a key zone, use volume and candlestick reactions to confirm the setup.
- Every trade should have a predefined entry, stop-loss, and take-profit. Do not change the plan arbitrarily after entering.
10. Livestream Resources and Community Access
Users who have not yet joined the official KTX Lark group can scan the QR code displayed in the upper-right corner or at the bottom of the livestream. The group shares daily market views, livestream notifications, strategy reviews, and related activities.
This article is based on the official KTX Baize Academy Web3 market livestream. All market analysis, price levels, and trading strategies are presented solely as a recap of the livestream and do not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency, futures, and tokenized U.S. equity trading involve substantial risk. Make decisions according to your own risk tolerance and always use a strict stop-loss.