This article is published in the "Market Analysis" section of KTX Crypto Academy and is based on the official Web3 market livestream by the KTX Crypto Baize Academy. This session focuses on BTC long and short order zones during a bear-market rebound, ETH relative strength and position management, a rebound-short plan for gold, and the practical use of the 0.618-0.786 Fibonacci zone in a range-bound market.

Instructor: Zeyu (7 years of cryptocurrency trading experience and 4 years of livestreaming experience)

Livestream Platform: Official KTX Chinese-language Lark group

Core Topics: BTC long and short zones · ETH 1838/1915 plan · Gold 4050-4080 · Altcoin risk · Fibonacci trading

Full Livestream Replay:

The full KTX Baize Trading Academy Web3 market livestream has been uploaded to YouTube.

Key Takeaways

• The market remains in a bear-market rebound and triangular consolidation, not a confirmed new bull market.
• BTC pullback longs are focused on 63,500-62,500, while rebound shorts are focused on 65,440-66,220.
• ETH remains stronger than BTC. The pullback-long reference is 1,838, while the rebound-short zone is 1,915-1,955.
• New gold shorts should wait for 4,050-4,080 instead of chasing the market lower.
• Rapidly rising altcoins such as ACE, AKE, and BANK should not be chased or blindly shorted. Participation should be limited to small positions and low leverage.
• In the current market, prioritize the 0.618-0.786 Fibonacci zone and avoid entering too early at 0.236, 0.382, or 0.5.

Core Questions

1. Is BTC entering a new bull market, or is this still a temporary bear-market rebound?
2. Which zones should traders watch for BTC pullback longs and rebound shorts?
3. Why is ETH stronger than BTC, and how should existing long positions be managed?
4. Where is a more reasonable zone for a rebound short in gold?
5. How should traders control leverage and position size when ACE, AKE, BANK, and similar altcoins surge?
6. How can the 0.618-0.786 Fibonacci zone be used for both long and short setups?

1. Overall Market View: The Bear-Market Rebound Continues, but This Is Not a Bull-Market Reversal

Zeyu believes the market remains range-bound, with limited liquidity and weak follow-through. BTC continues to test both sides of a triangular structure. Although the broader short-term bias still favors an upward rebound, the move should not be interpreted as the return of a bull market.

To confirm a genuine bullish reversal, BTC would need to break above and hold 70,000. Even if the price reaches the 68,000-71,000 area, it may only be an upside test before another decline.

The current strategy is to remain patient: do not chase rallies or selloffs, and only place orders at key pullback or rebound zones. Zeyu expects rebound opportunities to remain possible from July through mid-August, while smoother trend conditions may not return until October or November.

Bear markets do not decline forever, but a rebound is not the same as a reversal. A break and hold above a key level is required before a trend reversal becomes more credible.

2. Bitcoin (BTC): Buy Pullbacks, Short Rebounds, and Avoid Chasing the Middle of the Range

2.1 The Triangular Consolidation Is Still Intact

BTC remains inside a triangular structure and repeatedly appears close to a breakout without confirming one. The risk-reward ratio for both longs and shorts is unattractive in the middle of the range, so traders should wait for price to enter predefined zones.

2.2 Review of the Previous Long Position

Zeyu's previous BTC long had an average entry slightly above 63,500 and was closed in stages around 64,100-64,200. The exit was based on two main factors:

• The rebound approached the 0.786 Fibonacci resistance level.
• Price reached resistance from a descending trendline at the same time.

The trade was closed in profit, but it also demonstrated the lack of follow-through in the current market. When price reaches a major resistance area, protecting profits should take priority.

2.3 Upcoming Long and Short Plans

Pullback-long zone: 63,500-62,500

• Orders can be placed gradually from around 63,500.
• The closer price moves toward 62,500, the closer it gets to the lower end of the current retracement structure.
• If price decisively breaks below 61,000-61,500, the long thesis should be reassessed.

Rebound-short zone: 65,440-66,220

• For BTC perpetual futures, only consider scaling into shorts after a rebound.
• If price does not reach the planned zone, continue waiting.
• Do not chase a sudden decline, and do not chase a rapid rally.

The 57,758.6 area can be treated as a local bottom, but it currently confirms only a temporary rebound rather than a higher-timeframe reversal.

3. Ethereum (ETH): Stronger Than BTC, With Position Management as the Priority

3.1 The Ascending Channel Remains Intact

ETH remains noticeably stronger than BTC and continues to trade around an ascending channel. Even when price briefly breaks a local trendline, it often recovers quickly, making blind shorts near channel support unattractive.

3.2 Rebound-Short and Pullback-Long Plans

Rebound-short zone: 1,915-1,955

This area is near the 0.786 Fibonacci level of the current rebound. Price reached approximately 1,890 during the session, near the 0.618 level, but Zeyu preferred to wait for a move toward 1,915 before considering a short.

Pullback-long reference: around 1,838

The 1,838 area corresponds to the 0.618 retracement of the local structure. Entering near the ascending-channel line around 1,865 would still be relatively early. When trading ETH perpetual futures, stops should be based on a structural breakdown rather than a fixed number alone.

3.3 Protecting Profit on Existing Long Positions

Zeyu's earlier ETH long had an average entry around 1,848, and he reduced the position gradually as price rebounded. Traders still holding this long could consider moving the stop to approximately 1,852-1,853, preserving about $5-$6 of profit and preventing an unrealized gain from turning into a loss.

The core principle is straightforward: because the current market lacks continuity, traders should secure part of their profit when price reaches major resistance.

4. Gold: 4,050-4,080 Is the More Reasonable Rebound-Short Zone

Gold remains in a broader downtrend. Zeyu continues to hold an existing short position but does not recommend adding new shorts at the current lower level.

For a new position, the main zone to watch is 4,050-4,080, corresponding to the 0.618-0.786 Fibonacci retracement of the rebound. Stops can be placed around the previous high or the structural high of the selected trading timeframe. A larger timeframe requires a wider stop.

The logic is the same as for BTC and ETH: when the trend is bearish, wait for a rebound instead of chasing the decline.

5. ACE, AKE, and BANK: Do Not Chase Surging Altcoins or Blindly Short Them

The livestream reviewed ACE, AKE, BANK, and other altcoins that had rallied sharply within a short period. These assets can move by dozens of percentage points in a day, and some had nearly doubled.

Zeyu highlighted several common risks associated with rapidly rising altcoins:

• Small-cap assets are easier to control, making conventional technical analysis less reliable than it is for BTC, ETH, or gold.
• A large rally does not automatically create a short opportunity. Momentum can continue much longer than expected.
• High leverage can lead to liquidation during extreme volatility, even when the final directional view is correct.
• Some assets carry high funding rates, which continually increase the cost of holding a position.

For traders who still choose to participate, a more controlled approach would be:

• Prioritize spot positions or low leverage of 3x-5x.
• Use isolated margin so that the risk of one altcoin does not spread across the entire account.
• Commit only a small amount that can be fully lost without affecting the broader portfolio.
• Do not chase rallies or take heavily leveraged countertrend shorts.

Altcoin trading should be treated as a high-risk opportunity rather than a replacement for core positions in BTC or ETH.

6. Trading Lesson: Using the 0.618-0.786 Fibonacci Zone in Both Directions

Zeyu repeatedly emphasized that the most useful area in the current range-bound market is the 0.618-0.786 Fibonacci zone:

• When a decline rebounds into 0.618-0.786, look for a short setup.
• When a rally pulls back into 0.618-0.786, look for a long setup.
• If price does not reach the key zone, continue waiting instead of chasing a missed move.

6.1 Why Reduce the Use of 0.236, 0.382, and 0.5?

These levels may work during strong trends, but they often lead to premature entries in the current low-continuity market. Even a limited move in the opposite direction can leave a position under pressure for an extended period. At this stage, taking fewer trades at deeper retracement zones is preferable to entering too early.

6.2 Larger Timeframes Produce More Valuable Signals

Fibonacci levels can be applied across timeframes, but higher-timeframe structures generally carry more weight and offer larger potential profit ranges. Zeyu used a previous higher-timeframe ETH trend short as an example: the position was built after price rebounded into the 0.618-0.786 zone and ultimately captured a substantial decline.

6.3 Technical Indicators Are Not 100% Reliable

Fibonacci levels and trendlines are more suitable for liquid markets such as BTC, ETH, gold, and major U.S. equities. Altcoins are more vulnerable to concentrated capital and rapid manipulation, so the same methods should not be applied mechanically.

For moving averages, Zeyu mainly watches the MA5 in higher-timeframe bull and bear trends. The first pullback to the weekly MA5 in a bull market may generate a rebound, while a bear-market rebound into the weekly MA5 may create resistance. Compared with MACD, KDJ, or RSI, the strategy in this session remained centered on Fibonacci levels and price structure.

7. Q&A: TSM and News-Driven Trading

During the discussion of TSM, Zeyu noted that the asset remained inside a descending channel. If price rebounds above approximately 410 and approaches the descending trendline, traders could then observe whether a short setup develops. Because of the asset's volatility, a stop of roughly 5% and strict position control would be necessary.

Regarding ceasefire, war, and similar headlines, Zeyu noted that news is often delayed and repeated stories may generate progressively weaker market reactions. Trading decisions should not depend on headlines alone. Price location, trend structure, and risk-reward remain more important.

8. Core Trading Principles

1. Treat the current rise as a bear-market rebound rather than declaring the return of a bull market prematurely.
2. Avoid chasing trades in the middle of the range. Execute only in predefined 0.618-0.786 zones.
3. Wait for pullbacks to go long and rebounds to go short. If price does not reach the planned level, keep waiting.
4. Reduce positions when price reaches major resistance and use a trailing stop to protect the remaining profit.
5. For altcoins, prioritize spot or 3x-5x leverage, use isolated margin, and strictly limit position size.
6. Technical analysis is not infallible. Signals are generally more reliable on higher timeframes and in more liquid markets.
7. Use news only as supporting information, not as a replacement for price structure and risk control.

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This article is based on the official KTX Baize Academy Web3 market livestream. All market analysis, price levels, and trading strategies are provided solely as a recap of the session and do not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency and derivatives trading involve substantial risk. Make decisions according to your own risk tolerance and always use appropriate stop-loss protection.