This article is published under KTX Crypto Academy "Market Analysis" and is based on the KTX Baize Academy official Web3 market livestream. This KTX Crypto session focused on the BTC pullback near 63K and the 67,255 breakout level, management of the ETH long near 1,848 and the 2,080-2,150 rebound watch zone, as well as gold rebound shorts, Fibonacci entries, and trailing-stop execution.

Instructor: Zeyu

Livestream Platform: KTX Official Chinese Lark Group

Core Topics: BTC Pullback Near 63K and Trend Short · ETH Long Near 1,848 and Ascending Channel · Gold Rebound Short at 4,100-4,150 · Trailing-Stop Trading Lessons

Full Livestream Replay:

The full KTX Baize Trading Academy Web3 market livestream has been uploaded to YouTube.

1. Key Takeaways

• BTC remained inside an ascending channel and a broader consolidation structure. If current support holds, the July rebound thesis remains valid. If support fails decisively, price may test the 60,000 area.
• The previous high at 67,255 is the key upside level. The plan was to wait for a rebound and look for opportunities to add to the medium-term trend short between 68,000 and 71,000 rather than chase the market lower.
• ETH had broken above the previous 1,830-1,860 resistance zone and was retesting it as support. The average price of the existing long was approximately 1,848.
• The next ETH rebound watch zone was moved to 2,080-2,150. The plan was to reassess a rebound short only if price reached that area, not to chase a short at the current level.
• Gold's bearish structure was clearer than the current cryptocurrency market. The preferred execution remained waiting for a rebound toward 4,100-4,150 before considering a short.
• Because the market lacked directional continuity, profitable positions could reverse quickly. Beginning the following Monday, the livestream strategy would require trailing stops on profitable trades.

2. Core Questions

1. Why did BTC's current pullback still leave room for a rebound thesis?
2. What roles do 67,255 and 68,000-71,000 play in the next BTC plan?
3. How is the BTC trend short above 81,000 being managed through partial profit-taking and planned additions?
4. Why can ETH's former 1,830-1,860 resistance zone become support after a breakout?
5. How should traders understand the ETH long near 1,848 and the 2,080-2,150 rebound watch zone?
6. Why do current market conditions require trailing stops on profitable positions?

3. Overall Market View: A July Rebound Is Still Possible, but the Long-Term Entry Window Requires Patience

Zeyu described the current market as repeated consolidation under weak liquidity. Capital has been distributed across more financial markets, reducing both the continuity of crypto price action and the possibility of broad-based rallies. Traders should therefore avoid chasing moves and should not force medium-term positions before the direction becomes clearer.

On the monthly horizon, the livestream maintained the possibility of a rebound during July but became more cautious about the market after August. In Zeyu's personal cycle projection, a more attractive window for staggered long-term spot accumulation could appear between mid-August and mid-October. This was presented as a personal cycle estimate, not a precise prediction of the market bottom.

The long-term approach remained unchanged: wait for a deeper decline and stronger fear in BTC and ETH, accumulate spot positions gradually, and hold through the next complete cycle instead of expecting a major return within only a few months.

4. BTC: Pullback Near 63K, With 67,255 as the Key Previous High

4.1 The Ascending Channel Had Not Yet Been Confirmed as Broken

During the livestream, BTC pulled back toward the 63,000 area, but the larger ascending channel and short-term Fibonacci support had not both been decisively invalidated. As long as the support structure held, the rebound thesis remained under observation. A confirmed channel breakdown would shift attention toward the 60,000 area.

4.2 Watch 67,255 for a Breakout and 68,000-71,000 for the Trend Short

The 67,255 level was the most important previous high in the current structure. A decisive breakout could strengthen bullish sentiment and make the higher rebound-short zone more attractive.

For the medium-term bearish plan, Zeyu continued to wait for the 68,000-71,000 area before adding exposure. The strategy was not to chase a short at the current level. Trend positions require preserving capital for the extreme zones established in advance.

4.3 The Previous 0.786 Short Was Closed in Profit Before the Strategy Shifted to Buying the Pullback

On the previous day, BTC rebounded to the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement, where a short position was opened. The position was then closed gradually, with profit taken around 64,300. As the market continued to pull back, the intraday strategy changed from shorting the rebound to buying the retracement.

The first BTC perpetual contract long entry was approximately 64,188, with a second planned level near 63,288. BTC later reached approximately 64,800, but no trailing stop had been set. The unrealized profit was subsequently lost as price reversed, making this position an important case study in the final part of the livestream.

5. ETH: The 1,848 Long Tested Channel Support, With 2,080-2,150 as the Next Rebound Watch Zone

5.1 The 1,830-1,860 Resistance Zone Became Retest Support

ETH had previously formed strong resistance around 1,830-1,860 before breaking above the area. On the pullback, the former resistance could become support, while also overlapping with the 0.5-0.618 Fibonacci region and the ascending channel.

ETH's short-term structure remained stronger than BTC's because price was still holding near its ascending channel. Relative strength, however, did not guarantee an advance. Whether the channel held remained the key condition supporting the long thesis.

5.2 The Long Averaged Approximately 1,848, While the 1,898 Target Was Missed by Only a Few Dollars

The existing ETH perpetual contract long had an average entry of approximately 1,848. After the previous day's rebound, price missed the first profit target at 1,898 by only about four to five dollars before falling again.

Near the end of the livestream, ETH retested the ascending-channel support. Zeyu stated that if both the channel and the stop conditions failed decisively, the position should be stopped rather than held stubbornly. A new strategy could then be issued after the market established an updated structure.

5.3 The Next Rebound Watch Zone Was Raised to 2,080-2,150

The previous rebound-short zone at 1,920-2,050 had already been covered by the market, so the next area to monitor was moved higher to 2,080-2,150.

This zone meant "reassess a short if the rebound reaches the area." It did not mean a short had already been opened, and it was not a promise that ETH would necessarily reach those prices.

6. Gold: A Clearer Bearish Structure and a Rebound-Short Plan at 4,100-4,150

6.1 Short the Rebound, but Do Not Chase the Decline

Gold had continued to move along a descending channel. After price broke below 4,000, the bearish structure was clearer than the rapid intraday long-short shifts in BTC and ETH. The livestream retained the plan to consider a rebound short around 4,100-4,150 while avoiding a new short at the current low.

Chasing the market lower compresses both stop distance and risk-reward. A better execution is to wait for price to return to resistance and then reassess the setup using the channel and Fibonacci levels.

6.2 The Long-Term Accumulation Area Remained Below 3,500

For a long-term gold position, Zeyu continued to regard prices below 3,500 as a more attractive staggered accumulation area. This did not conflict with the current rebound-short approach because the two ideas used different time horizons and entry conditions.

7. Altcoins and Tokenized U.S. Equities: Do Not Expect a Broad-Based Rally

Current liquidity has been dispersed across more financial products. Zeyu argued that a repeat of the 2021 pattern, in which altcoins broadly rallied after BTC advanced, was unlikely. Future opportunities would more likely be concentrated in a small number of assets with a strong narrative, active market-making, or practical use cases rather than a universal "altseason."

The livestream also used SNDK's rapid decline from approximately 1,500-1,600 to around 1,300 as an example of how tokenized U.S. equities can experience volatility comparable to crypto assets. Since July, these instruments had also become less consistent. The strategy would therefore focus more closely on BTC, ETH, and gold instead of tracking too many markets at once.

8. Core Trading Lessons

8.1 The 0.618-0.786 Fibonacci Region Is an Important Reversal Zone

Whether looking for a short after a rally or a long after a decline, the 0.618-0.786 Fibonacci region was the preferred observation area in this session. If price decisively broke through 0.786, a risk boundary needed to be defined before or near a full 100% retracement.

Fibonacci levels identify higher-probability entry zones; they do not provide 100% accurate price predictions. Technical analysis should define entries, stops, and invalidation conditions in advance, not justify removing the stop.

8.2 Trend Positions Require Staggered Entries and Patience

The livestream gave the following example: if a trader used 20x leverage for a longer-horizon position, the first staged entry might use only about 10% of total capital. After the bottom was more clearly confirmed, another 10% could be added. A genuinely long-term leveraged position should reduce leverage to approximately 3x-5x, or at least remain below 10x.

The purpose of this example was to emphasize staged execution and preserved risk capacity. It was not a recommendation that every trader use high leverage. Actual leverage and position size must be adjusted to individual risk tolerance.

8.3 Profitable Positions Must Use Trailing Stops

The final section reviewed both BTC and ETH. The BTC long from 64,188 had previously reached approximately 64,800, while the ETH long missed its 1,898 target by only a few dollars. Neither position had a timely trailing stop, so the unrealized gains were lost and the trades moved into floating losses as the market reversed.

Beginning the following Monday, the updated execution rule was that every profitable position should use a trailing stop. Even if the stop exited the trade too early, the trader could re-enter at the next planned level. In a market characterized by poor continuity and repeated long-short reversals, earning less was preferable to allowing a winning trade to become a losing trade.