This article is published under KTX Crypto Academy "Market Analysis" and is based on the KTX Baize Academy official Web3 market livestream. This KTX Crypto session focused on closing the BTC short near 64,100 and reversing long, the staggered ETH pullback plan at 1,881 and 1,845, the SOL support area near 74, and trading lessons covering win rates, necklines, price-volume relationships, and the Dow Theory 1-2-3 reversal rule.
Instructor: Baize
Livestream Platform: KTX Official Chinese Lark Group
Core Topics: BTC 64.1K Long and Wave 3 Projection · ETH 1881/1845 Pullback Setup · SOL Support Near 74 · Price Action and Probability-Based Trading
Full Livestream Replay:
The full KTX Baize Trading Academy Web3 market livestream has been uploaded to YouTube.
1. Key Takeaways
- The July 15 BTC short had its stop at 65,800. BTC reached a high of approximately 65,589, leaving the stop untouched. On July 16, the short was closed near 64,100 and the position was reversed long.
- BTC broke the previous double top, descending trendline, and key neckline. Volume later confirmed the breakout after the pullback, and the livestream interpreted the current structure as a potential Wave 3 advance.
- The previous ETH short at 1,880 was stopped near 1,910, but the updated structure turned bullish: the new plan opened an initial position near 1,881, added near 1,845, and used 1,800 as the reference stop.
- ETH resumed its advance after retracing only to the 0.236/0.382 Fibonacci region instead of the expected 0.5/0.618 area, showing stronger-than-normal momentum.
- SOL remained in a projected Wave 4 pullback. The plan was not to chase a short, but to wait for support near 74 or below 74 before reassessing a long.
- The main trading lessons were that a high win rate never means 100% certainty, one market phase should have one primary trading direction, and necklines, volume, and price action deserve greater priority than lagging indicators or second-hand news.
2. Core Questions
- Why was the BTC short closed near 64,100 and reversed long?
- How did BTC's break above the double top, trendline, and neckline establish the Wave 3 projection?
- What is the technical logic behind the initial ETH entry at 1,881 and the add-on entry at 1,845?
- Why should traders wait for SOL near 74 instead of chasing the Wave 4 pullback short?
- Which should take priority in technical analysis: the neckline, trendline, or channel line?
- Why are naked candlesticks, price-volume relationships, and the Dow Theory 1-2-3 rule useful for trend confirmation?
3. Review of the Previous Session: BTC Short Closed in Profit, ETH Short Stopped Out
The July 15 plan included a BTC short, an ETH short near 1,880, and trading plans for SNDK and a tokenized SK Hynix instrument.
The BTC short's stop had been moved to 65,800. BTC reached a high of approximately 65,589, about 211 dollars below the stop, so the position was not stopped out. After price pulled back on July 16, the short was fully closed near 64,100, and the strategy then shifted to a long.
The ETH short at 1,880 was stopped near 1,910, after which price continued to approximately 1,946. Baize emphasized that the trade was not baseless: the setup included a double or triple top, a descending trendline, a liquidity wick, and bearish volume. However, once the invalidation level was broken, the lower-probability failure outcome had to be accepted and the stop executed.
4. BTC: Reversing Long Near 64,100 After the Breakout and Pullback
4.1 Trade Plan: Long Near 64,100 With a Stop at 63,000
The plan shown during the livestream was to close the previous short near 64,100, then open a BTC perpetual contract long around 64,100. The reference stop was 63,000, with staggered profit targets at 65,400 and 66,400.
This execution demonstrated that a strategy must change when the market structure changes. A profitable short from the previous day does not justify remaining bearish. Once the breakout and retest were complete, the original short thesis had failed and the position direction needed to be reassessed.
4.2 BTC Broke the Double Top, Descending Trendline, and Neckline
BTC had previously formed double-top or M-top resistance near the descending trendline, which was an important reason for the earlier short. The subsequent rally, however, broke three separate technical barriers:
- The previous double-top resistance;
- The descending trendline;
- The key neckline where buyers and sellers had repeatedly contested control.
The pullback after the breakout tested both the former neckline and the broken trendline, producing a resistance-to-support transition. Volume was not fully expanded at the start of the livestream, but it increased meaningfully before the candle closed and provided additional confirmation of the breakout.
4.3 Wave 3 Projection: First Observe the 67,300 Area
Combining the weekly 0.618 Fibonacci support, the monthly TD9 reversal signal, and the breakout-retest structure, Baize interpreted the current BTC path as a Wave 1 advance followed by a Wave 2 pullback and the beginning of Wave 3 acceleration.
The first upside area to observe was near 67,300. If Wave 3 continued to develop, the broader path discussed in the livestream suggested approximately 4,000 dollars of potential upside from the 64,000 region. This was a technical wave projection, not a guaranteed price target.
5. ETH: Initial Entry at 1,881, Add Near 1,845, and Buy the Neckline Retest
5.1 Switching From a Bearish Thesis to a Bullish Thesis
ETH's previous triple-top neckline contained deep positioning and significant resistance. Price's ability to break through the area directly with a news catalyst, without producing the deeper pullback that had been expected, was itself a sign of strength.
After the breakout, the former resistance zone became support on the retest. Traders still holding an old short needed to exit once the structure was invalidated. Traders without a position could instead reassess a long around the pullback zone.
5.2 July 16 Execution Levels: Staggered Entries at 1,881 and 1,845
The ETH perpetual contract plan for the session was:
- Open the initial position near 1,881;
- Add near 1,845;
- Use 1,800 as the reference stop;
- Use 1,940, 1,980, and 2,020 as staggered reference profit targets.
The 1,845 area aligned with the former triple-top neckline and the post-breakout retest zone, making it an important support-resistance flip. ETH had already become overbought after rising from approximately 1,748 to the 1,950 area, so the current pullback was treated as a normal correction rather than an automatic return to a bearish trend.
5.3 The Shallow Pullback Showed Strength, but the Stop Still Applied
The original projection expected ETH to retrace to the 0.5 or 0.618 Fibonacci level after the impulse move. Instead, the market resumed its advance after reaching only the 0.236/0.382 area, showing unusually strong demand.
That strength did not justify removing the risk boundary. The current long still used 1,800 as the reference stop. If the structure failed again, the plan needed to be terminated and reassessed.
6. SOL: Do Not Chase the Wave 4 Pullback Short; Wait for Support Near 74
SOL's projected wave structure still lacked a final Wave 5 advance, while the current move appeared closer to a Wave 4 pullback following Wave 3. Because the previous acceleration was not especially strong, a deeper correction remained reasonable.
During the livestream, price had already moved close to support, making a new short unattractive. At the same time, the ideal long entry had not fully arrived, so waiting was the most reasonable decision. Based on the 0.5 Fibonacci area and the highlighted support zone, the key level to observe was near 74. If price moved below 74, the long setup could be reassessed.
7. SNDK and SK Hynix: Triple-Bottom Support and Post-Open Reversal Behavior
7.1 SNDK: Market Long With a Reference Stop at 1,450
Baize's SNDK analysis focused on candlestick structure and pre-open versus post-open price behavior rather than the company's fundamentals. The chart showed three tests of a similar support area, leading to a market-long plan with a reference stop at 1,450 and a reference profit target at 1,714.
The "market short/rebound short" notes still visible on the chart belonged to an older strategy and did not represent the July 16 instruction.
7.2 SK Hynix: Triple-Bottom Support at 1,170 and a Reference Target at 1,333
The tokenized SK Hynix instrument had tested the 1,170 area three times and was returning to the same support region during the livestream. The session's plan was a market long with a reference stop at 1,170 and a reference profit target at 1,333.
A triple bottom is a structure that many traders can identify, which can create a shared market expectation. The pattern alone does not guarantee a rebound, however. The trade still required liquidity to return and the stop to be executed if support failed.
8. Core Trading Lessons
8.1 Win Rate Is a Probability, Not a Guarantee
Baize estimated his own long-term trading win rate at approximately 80%, but any individual trade can still fall into the losing portion of that distribution. Even if a short setup has historically succeeded more than 70% of the time, the next trade can still become part of the remaining 20%-30% failure rate.
A triggered stop does not prove that the original analysis had no logic, but logical analysis is never a reason to refuse a stop. A trading system allows higher-probability decisions to be repeated while limiting the damage from lower-probability failures.
8.2 Use Range-Style Execution to Capture a Trend
Distinguishing a range from a trend is one of the hardest problems in trading. Baize's approach was to establish one primary direction for a market phase and then use range-style execution within that directional view.
When the broader bias is bullish, for example, the trader primarily buys pullbacks, takes partial profit near the upper range, and leaves the remainder to capture a possible trend. If the market remains range-bound, part of the position has already been realized. If the trend continues, the remaining position can keep participating. This creates more consistent execution than repeatedly switching between long and short at every support and resistance level.
8.3 The Neckline Has Higher Priority Than an Ordinary Trendline or Channel Line
Trendlines and channel lines describe the path of price, while a neckline often represents a key area of buyer-seller conflict, accumulated positioning, and concentrated order flow. When these signals conflict, the neckline should receive greater priority.
If price fails repeatedly at a high, the market has established consensus resistance. If price then breaks through that area decisively, traders need to respect the market instead of forcing a short simply because price has "already risen too much."
8.4 News and Data Can Assist, but They Cannot Replace Price Action
Retail traders often receive public information only after it has passed through several channels, while some institutions may have positioned before the news becomes public. This is why the market can stop falling or begin rising before an important announcement appears.
Funding rates, OI, FDV, liquidation maps, and order books still have value for altcoin research. However, market makers can conceal their intentions through inventory transfers, large sell walls, split orders, and iceberg orders. These data are not useless, but their limitations must be understood.
Real transaction volume and price behavior are harder to disguise over time. Key structural support, necklines, and volume-profile peaks often correspond with each other, meaning that order flow and Smart Money behavior are frequently already embedded in visible price structure.
8.5 Naked Candlesticks, Price-Volume Analysis, and the Dow Theory 1-2-3 Rule
Baize's current analytical core is naked candlesticks, price action, and volume. Elliott Wave principles are used to project possible paths, while Dow Theory and the 1-2-3 rule are used for right-side confirmation. A bearish trend reversal can be evaluated through three conditions:
- The original descending trendline is broken;
- Price forms a higher high than the previous swing high;
- The subsequent pullback forms a higher low than the previous swing low.
When all three conditions are satisfied, the market has produced a more complete right-side trend-reversal confirmation. Moving averages, Bollinger Bands, Vegas channels, and other indicators can issue conflicting signals across timeframes, while the core logic of naked candlesticks and market structure remains more consistent.
8.6 Retail Traders Should Focus on a Small Number of Core Markets
Time, attention, and research capacity are all limited. Tracking BTC, ETH, altcoins, gold, foreign exchange, and U.S. equities at the same time can quickly make both information and position management unmanageable.
A more practical approach is to select a small number of familiar markets and continuously review them through the same methodology. A durable trading edge is more likely to come from long-term focus than from participating in every market narrative.
9. Livestream Resources and How to Join
Users who have not joined the official KTX Lark group can scan the QR code in the top-right corner or below the livestream. The group shares daily market views, livestream notices, strategy reviews, and related events.
This article is based on the KTX Baize Academy official Web3 market livestream. All market analysis and trading ideas are provided solely for learning and research and do not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency and derivatives trading involve substantial risk. Please participate cautiously according to your own risk tolerance.