This article is published under KTX Crypto Academy "Market Analysis" and is based on the KTX Baize Academy official Web3 market livestream. It covers BTC, ETH, altcoin opportunities, market reviews, and trading education. This session focused on BTC's 63,500-63,600 retest resistance and pullback plan below 61,200, ETH's 1,860 stop-loss level and 1,745/1,720 observation levels, as well as position management and trend strategies for SOL, HYPE, and ZEC.

Instructor: Baize

Livestream Platform: KTX Official Chinese Lark Group

Core Topics: BTC Multi-Timeframe Structure · ETH 1860 Stop-Loss Level · SOL/HYPE/ZEC Position Review · Trendline and Wave Analysis

Full Livestream Replay:

The full KTX Baize Trading Academy Web3 market livestream has been uploaded to YouTube.

1. Key Takeaways

• BTC has weekly Fibonacci support and a monthly TD9 reversal signal on the higher timeframes, while the shorter-term structure remains in an ABC correction after a double-top breakdown.
• The 63,500-63,600 area is a retest resistance zone after BTC broke below its neckline. The next focus is 61,200 and the 0.5-0.618 retracement zone below it.
• ETH has not decisively broken its weekly descending trendline. Because it remains stronger than BTC in the short term, adding to shorts is not appropriate. After ETH reached 1,860-1,862 near the end of the livestream, Baize explicitly instructed traders to stop out on the break rather than hold a losing position.
• The SOL short opened near 82 was fully closed near 75. There is currently no clear new trade plan.
• Half of the HYPE short was closed after a double liquidity sweep at the lows. The remaining position continues to be managed under the bearish right-side structure created by the break of the rising trendline.
• ZEC has a confluence of a double top, trendline retest, irregular head-and-shoulders pattern, and bearish 123 rule. However, altcoin structures are less regular, so both position size and expectations must be reduced.
• The main educational focus was trendline validity, price-volume divergence, structural stops, multi-timeframe analysis, and corrective wave structure, rather than price levels alone.

2. Core Questions

1. Why can BTC show a potential higher-timeframe reversal while still requiring a short-term pullback?
2. Why is BTC 63,500-63,600 considered a retest resistance zone?
3. Why is the area below BTC 61,200 more suitable for observing a pullback opportunity?
4. Why should traders stop holding the ETH short once 1,860 is broken?
5. How should positions in SOL, HYPE, and ZEC be managed differently?
6. How should trendlines, volume, and wave structure be combined in a trading system?

3. Opening Position Review: Reduce Exposure First, Then Wait for Clarity

Baize began by reviewing the recent positions. BTC and ETH shorts had experienced a significant profit drawdown during the rebound, so exposure had already been reduced according to plan instead of continuing to hold full-size positions.

The SOL short was opened near 82 and profits were taken in stages around 79, 77, and 75. The remaining position was fully closed near 75. BTC's previous take-profit plan was also largely completed, with price reaching approximately 61,800, close to the final 62,100 target.

Baize emphasized that news-driven moves can temporarily push price away from the technical structure. Traders cannot control how the market moves. What they can do is control position size, define structural stop levels in advance, and exit when the original logic is invalidated instead of increasing risk during the trade.

4. BTC: Higher-Timeframe Support and a Short-Term Pullback Can Coexist

4.1 Weekly Fibonacci Support Remains Valid

The BTC analysis began on the weekly chart. Baize again measured the full advance with Fibonacci retracement and noted that the previous low had reacted to a key weekly ratio. The current rebound therefore did not emerge without technical support.

This means a higher-timeframe BTC reversal remains possible, but higher-timeframe support does not justify chasing longs at any price. The higher timeframe defines the potential strategic direction, while the lower timeframe determines whether the current entry is appropriate.

4.2 The Daily Descending Trendline Is Still Acting as Resistance

On the daily chart, Baize recalibrated the descending trendline. A valid trendline should not be drawn arbitrarily through only two points. Traders should look for at least three clear price reactions along the same line.

The current descending trendline has already produced multiple reactions: price reached it and fell, then rebounded and was rejected again. It therefore remains technically relevant. From the daily-chart perspective, BTC still has room for further downside correction.

4.3 Price-Volume Divergence, Double Top, and Structural Stops

On the four-hour chart, BTC continued rising during the high-level rebound, but bullish volume did not expand with price. In contrast, the bearish legs showed clearer volume expansion. Baize described this as high-level price-volume divergence and bullish exhaustion.

Combined with repeated failed attempts to break the top area, BTC formed a relatively clear double-top structure. The previous short used 65,000 as its structural stop, while the highest price reached approximately 64,691. This illustrates why a tighter stop is not automatically safer. Moving the stop down to around 64,500 could have forced an early exit during a normal retest.

4.4 Monthly TD9 Is a Reversal Alert, Not a Direct Entry Signal

The livestream also explained the TD Sequential system. TD9 numbers consecutive candles to identify potential exhaustion. After a 9 appears, the market may enter a reversal or correction; if the trend continues, the extended sequence must also be monitored.

BTC has produced a monthly TD9, which creates a higher-timeframe reversal condition. However, TD9 is a left-side warning and cannot replace entry confirmation. The shorter-term chart still needs confirmation from the neckline, volume, trendline, and wave structure.

5. BTC Trade Path: Watch 63.5K-63.6K Resistance and the Pullback Below 61.2K

After BTC broke below its key neckline, a retest of the former support can turn that area into resistance. Baize identified 63,500-63,600 as a relatively clear retest zone and an important basis for the short-term bearish view.

From a wave perspective, BTC is closer to a wave-two correction after the first upward impulse. The internal structure can be interpreted as a declining A wave, a rebound B wave, and another decline into C. A wave-two retracement often reaches the Fibonacci 0.5-0.618 zone rather than ending at 0.382.

The next key observations are:

• Whether 63,500-63,600 continues to act as retest resistance;
• Whether BTC retests 61,200;
• Whether the area below 61,200 and the 0.5-0.618 zone creates new support confirmation;
• Whether a decisive break above the key neckline invalidates the current short-term pullback path.

Baize stressed that trading is not a mechanical exercise of shorting resistance and buying support. A valid entry should wait for confirmation from a breakout, retest, chart pattern, or volume. In a one-way market, apparent support and resistance levels can fail quickly.

6. ETH: Weekly Resistance Remains, and 1,860 Is the Final Risk Line

6.1 ETH Is Stronger Than BTC in the Short Term, but Higher-Timeframe Resistance Remains

ETH appeared relatively strong, but it had not decisively broken the weekly descending trendline. Corresponding resistance structures were still visible on the daily and four-hour charts. Together with a high-level double top and earlier bearish volume expansion, the technical structure did not yet confirm a sustained bullish reversal.

Because ETH remained stronger than BTC, Baize advised against adding to the short at the current level. During the middle of the livestream, the plan was to keep the remaining half-position short and use 1,860 as the structural stop while waiting for the market to choose a direction.

6.2 The 1,745 and 1,720 Levels and the Deeper Retracement Zone

If ETH maintained its relative strength, the first pullback observation levels were around 1,745 and 1,720. If the structure weakened further, the next area to monitor would be the Fibonacci 0.5-0.618 zone.

This path can also be interpreted as an ABC correction: the first decline is A, the rebound is B, and the subsequent pullback is C. However, Baize emphasized that current volume behavior and news-driven volatility made the market unstable, so traders should not keep adding shorts simply because a pullback was expected.

Near the end of the livestream, ETH quickly pushed into the 1,860-1,862 area. Baize immediately stated that traders should execute the stop once the risk level was reached or broken and should not hold the losing position. When a sudden move cannot be explained by the technical structure, the correct response is to exit first and wait for a clearer setup.

7. SOL: The Short from 82 Was Fully Closed at 75, With No Immediate Re-entry

The SOL short was opened near 82 and managed through take-profit levels around 79, 77, and 75. The remaining position was fully closed near 75.

SOL is currently near a support-resistance flip zone while still trading inside a visible descending channel. Viewed in isolation, SOL could attempt a support rebound, but that would conflict with the short-term bearish view on BTC and ETH.

Baize generally does not take ordinary hedged positions by shorting BTC/ETH while simultaneously longing SOL when the assets remain highly correlated, unless the relative-value divergence becomes unusually large. SOL therefore has no clear new trade plan at present, and the priority after taking profit is to observe.

8. HYPE: Close Half After the Double Bottom Sweep and Manage the Rest by the Right-Side Structure

HYPE produced two consecutive downside wicks at the lows, showing relatively strong support. Baize therefore instructed traders to close half of the short and protect part of the existing profit.

However, HYPE had already broken its rising trendline and then completed a retest followed by another decline. The bearish right-side structure remained clear. The remaining short did not need to be closed immediately as long as the key upper high was not decisively broken.

This management approach demonstrates the value of partial exits: protect profit when price reaches support while keeping a smaller position aligned with the original trend, rather than choosing only between holding everything and closing everything.

9. ZEC: Four Bearish Factors Converge, but Skipping the Trade Is Valid

ZEC showed several bearish signals on the four-hour and two-hour charts:

• High-level double-top resistance;
• Retest resistance after the rising trendline was broken;
• A potential right shoulder in an irregular head-and-shoulders pattern;
• Lower highs and lower lows consistent with the bearish 123 rule.

Baize considered the resistance confluence relatively clear, but altcoin patterns are naturally less regular than BTC and ETH, and the risks of manipulation and sharp wicks are higher. This is therefore not a mandatory trade. Traders who accept the setup can observe it with small size; those who do not accept the volatility can skip it entirely.

There will always be another opportunity. For irregular altcoin structures, choosing not to trade is itself a form of risk management.

10. Core Trading Lessons

10.1 A Trendline Needs at Least Three Valid Reactions

Two points only define a straight line. A third or subsequent reaction is needed to confirm whether the trendline is genuinely respected by price. Old trendlines that are too far from the current market or have already been decisively broken should not be forced onto the chart.

10.2 Price and Volume Must Be Read Together

When price rises while bullish volume continues to weaken, and bearish declines show stronger volume expansion, the market may be losing upward momentum. Price-volume divergence should not be used as a standalone entry trigger, but it can reinforce a double top, trendline rejection, or neckline breakdown.

10.3 Separate the Direction of Each Timeframe

The weekly and monthly charts can show a potential reversal while the daily and four-hour charts remain in a correction. Higher timeframes define the strategic direction; lower timeframes define the entry timing. These views are not contradictory.

10.4 Impulse and Correction in Wave Structure

In a five-wave structure, waves 1, 3, and 5 are impulse waves, while waves 2 and 4 are corrective waves. Corrections often develop as ABC or AB=CD structures. The current short-term BTC and ETH plans focus on whether the wave-two correction has completed.

10.5 A Structural Stop Must Not Turn Into Holding and Hoping

A stop should be defined from the market structure before entry. If price has not reached the invalidation level, traders should not tighten the stop merely out of fear. Once price reaches or breaks that level, they must not continue holding the position. ETH's move through 1,860 near the end of the livestream was the clearest example in this session.

11. Livestream Resources and Participation

Users who have not joined the official KTX Lark group can scan the QR code shown in the upper-right corner or below the livestream. The group shares daily market views, livestream notices, strategy reviews, and related activities.

Baize Academy · Web3 Market Livestream · Professional Learning and Practice for a Different Future

This article is based on the KTX Baize Academy official Web3 market livestream. All market analysis and trading ideas are provided for educational reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency derivatives trading involves extremely high risk. Please participate cautiously according to your own risk tolerance.