On the short-term structure, however, BTC has already shown a clear change:

• highs are gradually getting lower;
• lows are also starting to get lower;
• the rising trend line has been broken;
• after the break, price has rebounded back toward the line;
• the former support area is starting to turn into resistance.

This is the 123 rule discussed in the livestream: after an uptrend structure is damaged, price breaks below the rising trend line, then rebounds toward the trend line or neckline area, forming a clear bearish selling point.

In terms of execution, Baize said BTC is still mainly viewed from a short-side perspective, but the stop-loss remains unchanged at 65,000.

The reason is clear: BTC's recent high only reached around 64,006 and did not truly touch 65,000. The 65,000 level is not a random number. It is an invalidation level derived from the chart structure. As long as this level is not effectively broken, the original trading logic has not been invalidated.

Baize also used BTC and ETH to explain why a closer stop is not always safer. Some traders moved their ETH stop from 1,860 to 1,802 or 1,803. ETH then rebounded to around 1,832 and stopped them out, while the original structural stop at 1,860 was never triggered.

6.BTC Pullback Plan: Below 61,200 and the 0.5-0.618 Zone Are More Reasonable Observation Areas

For the next move, Baize did not make an absolute prediction. Instead, he offered a reference path: BTC rebounded from around 58,000 and has already formed a main upward leg, but this move was not strong enough to justify assuming there will be no meaningful pullback.

According to wave and Fibonacci logic, after the first main upward leg, the pullback usually should not be judged only by the 0.382 level. A more reasonable observation zone is around 0.5-0.618.

Therefore, if BTC later pulls back below 61,200, or closer to the 0.5-0.618 zone, that would be a more reasonable area to watch for left-side long opportunities. At the same time, Baize stressed that left-side trades must have a stop-loss. Traders should not build heavy positions just because a level looks cheap.

This section also addressed a common mistake: entering as soon as price touches 0.236 or 0.382 is not necessarily correct. The first step is to confirm whether the move is truly a main upward leg, and then decide which retracement zone should be used.

7.ETH: 1698 Is the Precise Level, While 1688/1668 Are Pullback Observation Areas

ETH's logic was similar to BTC's, but its structure was less textbook.

During the livestream, Baize clearly stated that 1698 is the more precise observation level, while 1688 and 1668 belong to the same broader pullback observation zone. The 1698 level can be derived in two ways: first from the Fibonacci 50% retracement, and second from a key moving-average area.

The core ETH view was:

• ETH still has a need to pull back toward the 1698/1688/1668 area;
• only after a break below 1668 should traders start considering whether to build a left-side trade;
• it is not suitable to blindly bottom-fish at 0.236 or 0.382;
• after adding shorts around 1,740, ETH shorts should mainly remain as existing two-layer positions, without adding more.

Baize also discussed the role of the 0.236 neckline. ETH had repeatedly used this area for support and rebounds. Once price broke below it and then rebounded back, the same area became pressure. Together with the long upper wick and hanging-man type candle, the short-term bias remained toward another move lower.

The more important lesson here was that Fibonacci should not be used in isolation. It is not about buying every touch of 0.236 or 0.382. Traders must first decide whether the move is a pullback after a main upward leg or just a normal consolidation after a rebound.

8.SOL: Head-and-Shoulders Structure and the 75 Support Zone, Fast Moves but Lighter Position Size

SOL was another key altcoin discussed in the livestream.

Baize reviewed that SOL had previously formed a head-and-shoulders structure, and shorts had been discussed around 82-83 in the community. SOL's key feature is speed: it often moves before BTC and ETH, and it can also release downside pressure earlier than the majors.

Structurally, after the SOL head-and-shoulders breakdown, the move can be understood as an ABC correction:

• the first decline is A;
• the middle rebound is B;
• a C leg may still be missing;
• the C-leg focus is near 75.

The 75 area is a key support-resistance flip zone for SOL. It had acted as pressure multiple times before, and after the breakout it may become an observation support area on a retest. B

aize said that if SOL shorts were entered from 82-83, the 75 area can be treated as an important area for reducing risk or observing the next setup.

He also reminded traders that while SOL can be analyzed technically, its volatility and wick behavior are stronger than BTC/ETH. It should not be traded with the same position size as the majors. Even if participating in these names later, position size should be reduced.

9. ZEC: Pullback After Liquidity Grab, Hold Shorts if Resistance Holds, but Do Not Add

The ZEC section focused mainly on "liquidity grab" and altcoin position control.

In the livestream, Baize pointed out that ZEC had previously made a volume-backed breakout, attracting right-side traders to chase longs. The later pullback suggested that the upside move may have completed a liquidity grab.

On the chart, ZEC has already broken below its rising trend line and then rebounded back toward it. The area that previously acted as repeated pressure, then breakout zone, then breakdown and retest zone, becomes stronger resistance over time.

Baize's view was: if ZEC does not break above the resistance zone, shorts can continue to be observed, but positions should not be added. ZEC and similar names are more prone to market-maker control and sharp wicks. They are not suitable for medium-to-large positions, nor for gambling-style execution.

More importantly, if BTC and ETH continue to move lower, altcoins like ZEC are likely to weaken further. Altcoin trades can be participated in, but traders must accept that they do not follow technical analysis as cleanly as the majors.

10.Trading Education: Stop-Losses, Position Size, and the Learning Process

The most valuable part of this livestream was the breakdown of Baize's trading system.

10.1 Do Not Change Stop-Losses Randomly

A stop-loss should come from structure, not emotion.

Baize explained that stop-loss levels can be derived from structural highs and lows, Fibonacci, technical indicators, or order-flow invalidation points. If price breaks a level that should not be broken, the original logic is invalidated. At that point, traders should accept the mistake, exit, and look for the next opportunity.

But if a stop is moved down simply because the trader is afraid of losing money, it becomes easier to get stopped out by normal volatility.

10.2 Do Not Apply Major-Coin Position Size Directly to Altcoins

BTC and ETH are more suitable for stable technical review. SOL can be traded, but with lighter size. ZEC, HYPE and other strongly controlled altcoins require more data, such as FDV, futures open interest, liquidation zones, and heat maps.

Baize's view was that small accounts should not use heavy altcoin positions simply because altcoins move more. Majors may look less volatile, but their structures are clearer. With reasonable position size and strict stop-losses, risk is easier to control.

10.3 Learn Trading by Looking Outward First, Then Inward

At the end of the session, Baize divided the trading learning process into two stages.

The first stage is looking outward: ask questions, watch replays, study indicators, understand price action, practice drawing lines, and build review ability.

The second stage is looking inward: build trading mindset, trading cognition, strategy frameworks, and ways to analyze different market conditions.

Baize said trading gives very direct feedback: when you are right, your account grows; when you are wrong, your account decreases. The market will not change because of subjective explanations. In the end, trading forces people to face their own judgment, emotions, and choices.

11.Livestream Resources and How to Join

Users who have not joined the KTX Lark official community can scan the QR code in the upper-right corner or below the livestream to enter the group. The group shares daily market views, livestream notices, strategy reviews, and related activities.