This article is published under KTX Crypto Academy's "Market Analysis" section and is based on KTX Baize Academy's official Web3 market livestream for the Chinese community. It covers BTC, ETH, altcoin opportunities, market reviews, and trading education. This session focused on why BTC and ETH should remain the priority during a bear-market phase, BTC's flag consolidation and range-trading logic, the July oversold rebound versus the expected August-September downside risk, and strategy observations for ZEC, LAB, HYPE, and tokenized U.S. stock assets.

Host: Zeyu Laoshi (7-8 years of cryptocurrency trading experience, 4 years of livestream experience)

Platform: KTX official Chinese Lark community

Core themes: BTC flag consolidation · July oversold rebound · Bear-market position management · Altcoins and tokenized U.S. stock strategies

Full Livestream Replay:

The full KTX Baize Trading Academy Web3 market livestream has been uploaded to YouTube.

1.Key Takeaways

1. The market is still in a bear-market phase. Zeyu suggested keeping the main focus on BTC and ETH, because altcoins may not follow when the majors rebound, but can fall quickly when BTC and ETH pull back.
2. After BTC retreated from around 64,200, it formed a flag-style consolidation. The short-term structure is not a one-way trend, but a range where traders should focus on buying low and selling high.
3. The BTC 61,588-62,088 area is an aggressive long observation zone. A pullback closer to Fibonacci 0.618 would be a more conservative low-area setup.
4. July is still viewed as an oversold rebound month. If price breaks above the previous high, the next focus is a higher short zone. August-September still carries downside risk and possible panic selling.
5. Spot logic and futures logic must be separated. Spot can be accumulated in batches, while futures should still follow intraday and swing plans.
6. Altcoins are volatile and heavily controlled, so positions should not be spread too widely. For names like LAB, even a correct short direction may have profits consumed by funding fees.
7. Tokenized U.S. stock assets can be watched, but futures trading is more difficult because these assets are easily affected by macro news and unexpected speeches.

2.Core Questions From This Session

1. Why is it better to focus on BTC and ETH in a bear-market phase instead of holding many altcoins?
2. How should traders read BTC's current flag consolidation: further downside or a rebound first?
3. How should the July oversold rebound be separated from the possible August-September accelerated decline?
4. Why is ETH stronger than BTC in the short term, but still not a confirmed trend reversal?
5. How should LAB, ZEC, HYPE, and other altcoins be handled, and why should traders avoid heavy positions?
6. How should spot accumulation and futures trading be managed across separate accounts?

3.Opening View: In a Bear Market, the Main Line Is Still BTC and ETH

Zeyu opened by stressing that the market is still in a bear-market phase. At this stage, the key is not to search for many altcoin trades every day, but to first understand the rhythm of BTC and ETH.

His view is that recent price action has already shown clear divergence. When BTC and ETH rebounded, many altcoins did not follow meaningfully. But when BTC and ETH pulled back slightly, some altcoins dropped more than 10% directly.

This is why, in a bear market, major coins are more suitable for intraday and swing plans. BTC and ETH may not be as volatile as altcoins, but they offer better certainty and controllability. Altcoins are not impossible to trade, but traders should not hold too many of them or use the same position size and leverage used for major coins.

Zeyu also reminded traders that waiting is normal in a bear market. Sometimes BTC/ETH may take two or three days to complete one trade. Weekend markets can be even slower, and if price is not moving, staring at the chart for hours has little value.

4.Trading Experience and Cycle Lesson: Buy During Declines, Sell During Rallies

This livestream included a full review of Zeyu's own trading experience.

Zeyu mentioned that when he first entered the crypto market in 2019, he started trading EOS futures on the very first day. At that time, he had no stop-loss concept and no framework for bull and bear cycles. When price went up, he wanted to short it, which led to repeated liquidations. Looking back, those were lessons paid for with real money.

He reviewed several key cycles:

• The March 12, 2020 crash was one of the darkest days in the crypto market, but it also became a historical accumulation opportunity.
• The 2021 bull market pushed BTC, ETH, and many other assets far beyond normal expectations.
• The 2022 bear market was a true one-way decline, with many altcoins going to zero or losing liquidity.
• During the 2025 high-price stage, BTC above 120,000 and ETH above 4,000 were no longer good areas to chase spot.
• If another deep panic appears in 2026, it may become a spot accumulation opportunity for the next cycle.

The core logic is simple: accumulate in batches during declines and sell in batches during rallies. Do not chase spot at high levels, and do not only feel fear when the market enters real panic.

5.Account and Position Management: Separate Trend Accounts From Intraday Accounts

Zeyu again mentioned that KTX's unified account system allows one user to create multiple sub-accounts, but in practice there is no need to open too many.

A more reasonable setup is to keep at least two accounts:

• Trend account: used to wait for major opportunities, such as medium-to-long-term shorts or future spot allocation.
• Intraday account: used to execute the daily short-term trading plan.

The benefit is that trend trades will not be disturbed by intraday volatility, and intraday trades will not interfere with medium-to-long-term judgment. When there is no clear trend opportunity, the trend account can simply wait instead of forcing an entry.

Zeyu also reminded traders that it is normal for different analysts to give different levels. Some are more aggressive, while others are more conservative. Aggressive levels may catch more trades but can also face more short-term volatility. Conservative levels may miss some opportunities but carry lower risk. Traders can use different views as references, but the final decision must return to their own risk tolerance.

6.Information Management: Read Market Views, but Do Not Let Them Disrupt Your System

The livestream also demonstrated KTX's AI tweet and market intelligence modules. Zeyu said this type of information can be used as reference, but traders should not fill their heads with every market opinion.

The market often produces bullish, bearish, extremely bullish, and extremely bearish information at the same time. The more traders read, the easier it becomes to feel unsure about what to do.

His suggestion is clear: information can be read, but trading must follow one's own judgment. If the trade is wrong, accept it and use a stop loss. If the trade is right, follow the plan and take profit. Traders should not let too many external opinions disrupt their own trading system.

7.Prediction Market and the World Cup: Knockout Matches Must Be Judged by Regular Time

This session also mentioned the KTX prediction market. The prediction market currently supports BTC and other crypto assets across 1-hour, 4-hour, and daily up/down predictions, and it also supports World Cup football match predictions.

Zeyu especially reminded users that after the World Cup enters the knockout stage, judgments should not only focus on who finally advances. Many prediction markets are based on the regular-time result. If the regular time ends in a draw, the match then goes into extra time and penalties.

He mentioned a previous match where regular time ended in a draw, extra time was also tied, and the final result was decided by penalties. In this type of match, if a user only looks at team strength and ignores the possibility of a regular-time draw, it is easy to make the wrong judgment.

8.BTC: Flag Consolidation, Range Trading, and No Need to Chase Direction

BTC was the main focus of this market review.

Zeyu pointed out that BTC rebounded to around 64,200 the previous night and then pulled back. The current structure looks more like a flag consolidation: after a rebound, price is moving back and forth inside a channel.

The livestream mentioned that 61,588-62,088 is an aggressive long observation zone. This area carries some risk because BTC briefly broke below the flag channel. But if price can reclaim the channel, there is still room for another rebound.

A more conservative approach is to wait for price to pull back near Fibonacci 0.618 before considering a long. Zeyu stressed that the current market is not one-way, but a range market. Both longs and shorts can be considered, but the key is to clearly identify the high and low areas for each day.

His overall view has not changed:

• July is still viewed as an oversold rebound.
• If the rebound breaks above the previous high, the next step is to watch for a higher short opportunity.
• August-September is still biased toward further decline.
• If an accelerated drop and panic release appear later, that may become an important spot-entry stage.

9.ETH: Stronger Than BTC in the Short Term, but Still a Rebound Structure

ETH is currently slightly stronger than BTC. When BTC rebounded, it did not fully reach its target, but ETH showed stronger rebounds during certain periods. When BTC made a lower low, ETH did not always make a synchronized new low.

The ETH chart in the livestream showed that 1,833 was a recent high, while price had pulled back to around 1,740-1,750. The lower levels at 1,730, 1,698, and 1,666 were important retracement areas on the chart.

Zeyu's view is that ETH is a little stronger than BTC in the short term, but traders do not need to overthink it. A previous ETH short had already received a first-level guide, and the follow-up can continue according to plan without being too aggressive.

This is still not a trend reversal, but a consolidation during the rebound process. For longs, traders should wait for retracement areas. For existing shorts, whether to continue holding depends on position pressure and stop-loss plans.

10.Altcoin Strategy: Watch Relative Strength, but Do Not Spread Heavy Positions

10.1 HYPE: Relatively Strong Structure, but Still Waiting for the Major Market Direction

When discussing HYPE, Zeyu said its structure was relatively strong and at least remained in high-level consolidation. But it is still waiting for the broader market to choose a direction. If the market continues to rebound, HYPE may still have a chance to break higher. If the market weakens, traders should not stay blindly optimistic.

10.2 ZEC: Pulled Back After Rebounding to a Key Level, Shorts Must Use Stop Losses

For ZEC, the livestream mentioned that it pulled back after rebounding near 0.618. If the short entry was slightly early, traders may need to wait in the short term, but Zeyu believed that solving the short position was more a matter of time.

However, the more important point in this ZEC setup is stop-loss discipline. Zeyu clearly reminded traders that trading without a stop loss is not acceptable. Even if the direction is correct, a sudden move can still break the position if there is no stop-loss plan.

10.3 LAB: Extremely Volatile, With Heavy Funding-Fee Pressure

LAB was one of the high-volatility altcoins highlighted in this session. Zeyu said LAB's market-making style is very aggressive and the price action is extremely abnormal. Even if the short direction is correct, high funding fees may consume a large share of the profit.

He gave an example: a short position may show 1,000 USDT in unrealized profit, but funding fees may consume 800-900 USDT, leaving only a small actual profit. Therefore, LAB is not suitable for heavy positions at the current stage. If traders want to try it, they should only use a small position.

10.4 Long-Tail Altcoins: Small Spot Positions May Be Acceptable, Futures Risk Is Higher

Some long-tail altcoins were also mentioned during the Q&A. Zeyu's overall view is that some altcoins are indeed still building and may attract funds, but their market caps are small, order books are light, and control levels are high, so volatility can be very large.

If a trader has conviction in certain names, a small spot position can be considered. But futures risk is clearly higher, especially when position sizing is not controlled well. Short-term volatility can easily force traders out.

11.Tokenized U.S. Stocks and Other Assets: Worth Watching, but Futures Are More Difficult

The second half of the livestream also looked at tokenized U.S. stock assets such as MU, SPCX, and TSM.

For MU, Baize had previously guided a short from above 1,000 to around 876, already producing more than 10% profit. But Zeyu believed that after falling to this area, MU has some rebound demand and should not be viewed as blindly bearish.

For SPCX, there is support below and resistance above. A small short-term long can be considered, but the upside space is not especially large.

When asked about TSM, Zeyu said buying a small amount of spot for this type of tokenized U.S. stock asset can be acceptable, but futures are more difficult. U.S. stock-related assets are easily affected by macro news, sudden speeches, and pre-market or after-hours volatility. If futures positions are too heavy, risk increases significantly.

Gold and oil were also briefly mentioned. Oil is easily affected by geopolitical conflict, while gold did not rise strongly in this round. These assets also require more effort to trade and are not suitable for heavy blind positions.

12.Long-Term Spot Logic: Do Not Buy Highs, Accumulate During Panic

At the end of the livestream, Zeyu again emphasized spot-investment logic.

He believes that last year, when BTC was above 100,000, 110,000, and 120,000, it was not a good area to buy spot. ETH above 4,000 also did not offer attractive risk-reward. The upside may have been only dozens of percent, but the downside risk was much larger.

Now prices have already discounted meaningfully from the highs. For medium-to-long-term or long-term investors, batch accumulation can start to be considered, but a better BTC area is still around 45,000-60,000.

His framework is:

• Futures are used for intraday trading and short-term income needs.
• Spot is used to wait for the next cycle.
• If the market creates a panic pit this year, traders should be prepared to allocate some spot.
• After buying spot, do not stare at short-term fluctuations every day.
• Accounts, wallets, seed phrases, and private keys must be protected properly.

Zeyu mentioned that the next major opportunity may appear around 2029 or 2030. If this bear-market cycle is missed, traders may need to wait another four years.

13.Core Trading Principles

1. In a bear-market phase, prioritize BTC and ETH, and only select a few strong altcoins.
2. Manage spot and futures separately. Do not use futures logic to handle long-term spot positions.
3. Separate intraday accounts from trend accounts to reduce strategy interference.
4. In a range market, do not chase direction. First identify the high and low areas.
5. Altcoins are volatile and heavily controlled, so futures positions must stay light.
6. Every trade must have a stop loss. If the trade is wrong, accept the mistake.
7. Do not chase spot at high levels. Panic declines are the stage for batch allocation.
8. Market information can be read, but external opinions should not replace your own trading system.

14.Livestream Resources and Participation

Users who have not joined the KTX official Lark community can scan the QR code in the upper-right corner or at the bottom of the livestream screen. The group shares daily market views, livestream notices, strategy reviews, and related activities.

Baize Academy · Web3 Market Livestream · Professional learning and practice for a different future

This article is based on KTX official Chinese community livestream content. All market analysis and trading suggestions are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency futures trading is extremely risky. Please participate cautiously based on your own risk tolerance.