This article is published under KTX Crypto Academy "Market Analysis" and compiled from the KTX Baize Business School Web3 official market livestream. It covers BTC, ETH, altcoin opportunities, market review, and trading education. This session focuses on the BTC long setup from 58K-59K, the 62.5K pressure zone, the ETH rebound plan from 1580 to 1660, trend account and intraday account management, and the basic logic and usage of prediction markets.
Main instructor: Zeyu
Guest speaker: mark (Houshanke)
Livestream platform: KTX Official Chinese Lark Group
Core focus: BTC/ETH rebound review · trend account management · prediction market tutorial
Full Livestream Replay:
The full KTX Baize Trading Academy Web3 market livestream has been uploaded to YouTube.
Key Takeaways
- July still has rebound potential, but the higher-timeframe trend has not fully turned bullish. After the rebound is completed, traders should still watch for renewed weakness in August and September.
- The BTC long setup given earlier around 58K-59K has reached the 60K-61K take-profit area. The next key zone to watch is the 62.4K-63K resistance area.
- ETH rebounded from around 1580 to the 1660 area, completing the short-term rebound plan. The 1660-1670 area is now a pressure zone to monitor.
- Trend accounts and intraday accounts should be separated. Traders should keep at least two accounts to avoid intraday trades interfering with trend positions.
- Altcoins remain highly divided. HYPE and SOL are relatively strong, OPEN is weak, and ZEC is highly volatile. Random chasing without a plan is not recommended.
- Prediction markets are not contract trading. They are based on event outcomes, and prices change according to real user orders. They are better suited for participants with an information edge in familiar fields.
Key Questions
- Why can July be traded as a rebound, but not as a confirmed bull-market reversal?
- What are the most important long and short zones for BTC and ETH right now?
- Why should traders prepare at least one trend account and one intraday account?
- What is the biggest difference between prediction markets and contract trading?
- When participating in World Cup or BTC price prediction markets, how can traders avoid rule misunderstandings and oversized positions?
1.Livestream Background: From Bull-Bear Cycles to Trading Discipline
At the beginning of the livestream, Zeyu reviewed his own trading experience. He entered the crypto market in 2019, and by 2026 he has been in the market for eight years. During this period, he went through the 2020 black swan event, the 2022 bear market, low-position accumulation in 2023, high-level shorting in 2025, and this year's continued focus on trading around the major trend.
The point of this review was not to tell a personal story, but to remind users that trading ability is not built from one market move. It is built through bull-bear transitions, sharp sell-offs, rebounds, altcoin collapses, and periods of poor liquidity.
Zeyu specifically mentioned that many beginners only know how to open an exchange app and enter a trade. They do not yet understand price levels, trends, indicators, or position management. After going through several cycles, one lesson becomes clear:
Waiting is also part of trading.
When the opportunity has not arrived, forcing trades only consumes capital and damages mindset. But when a truly large opportunity appears, traders must already have the right accounts, positions, and trading plan prepared.
2.Account Management: Separate Trend Accounts and Intraday Accounts
In this session, Zeyu again emphasized how to use the KTX unified account system. One user can create multiple sub-accounts, but ordinary traders do not need too many accounts. At minimum, two accounts are enough.
A more practical setup is:
- One account for trend trading
- One account for intraday trading
- If the trader is capable, additional accounts can be used for scalping or altcoin strategies
The core reason is that trend trading and intraday trading follow completely different logic.
A trend account is used to capture a small number of major opportunities each year, such as a bull-bear transition, a high-level trend short, or a major phase-bottom opportunity. An intraday account is used for daily trading plans and short-term entries and exits. If both systems are mixed in one account, the most common problem is that short-term fluctuations influence judgment and cause traders to close trend positions too early. After that, they may never be able to rebuild the same high-cost short position.
Zeyu mentioned the major liquidation event on October 10-11, 2025. Some users had large profits from trend short positions, but after closing them, it became very difficult to re-enter at the original high-level cost during later rebounds.
Therefore, account separation is not just a formality. It is a way to protect the independence of different trading systems.
3.Overall Market View: July Can Be Traded as a Rebound, but Higher-Timeframe Risk Remains
Zeyu's view on the current market is that a short-term rebound structure has appeared, and July may continue to see a rebound. However, the higher-timeframe trend has not fully turned bullish.
He noted that if BTC forms a phase bottom near 57.7K, a weekly-level rebound may follow. But even if that rebound happens, it should not be treated as the start of a new bull market. The broader trading idea remains: rebounds can be traded, but major resistance zones should still be watched for short opportunities.
The current approach is not to chase long positions just because the market is rebounding, and not to blindly chase shorts just because the larger trend remains weak. Instead, both sides should be handled according to plan:
- Rebound longs can be considered near support zones
- Shorts should be considered only near major resistance zones
- After the rebound is completed, renewed weakness in August and September still needs to be watched
4.BTC: The 58K-59K Long Setup Reached Take-Profit, and 62.4K-63K Is the Key Pressure Zone
BTC was the main focus of the market review.
In previous sessions, Zeyu had given a BTC long idea around 58K-59K before the low was fully formed, with the core average entry around 58.5K. In this livestream, that long had already rebounded into the 60K-61K area, and the take-profit target had largely been completed.
The livestream also mentioned an intraday long opportunity closer to 60K during the day, but the market only dropped to around 60,080, missing the entry by several dozen dollars. That opportunity was therefore not filled.
The next key level for BTC is the upper pressure zone. Zeyu mentioned a short watch zone around 62,444-63,000, roughly near 62.5K. This is not a random short on a small timeframe. It is a planned area based on a larger resistance zone.
The BTC trading view can be summarized as follows:
- The 58K-59K long setup has completed one round of rebound profit
- If 57.7K becomes a phase bottom, July may still continue to rebound
- 62.4K-63K is the next important pressure zone
- A rebound does not mean the higher-timeframe trend has reversed; traders still need to watch whether price is rejected near resistance
5.ETH: The 1580 Long Rebounded to 1660, and 1660-1670 Is Now a Pressure Zone
ETH was also reviewed mainly from the long-side rebound perspective.
The livestream mentioned that an ETH long idea was given near 1580 the previous day, and price later rebounded into the 1620-1660 area. Zeyu said that the move from 1580 to 1660 had basically completed the rebound plan, with roughly 80 dollars of upside. Users who entered earlier around 1566 had an even larger profit window.
However, after ETH's rebound, traders should not blindly chase higher.
Zeyu emphasized that although ETH showed more short-term strength than BTC and still had room to continue rebounding, the probability of an explosive move was not high. The broader market is more likely to rebound in a choppy way: move up, pull back, and then reassess resistance.
Key points for ETH:
- The long from around 1580 to 1660 has completed its short-term target
- The 1660-1670 area is now a weekly-level pressure zone to monitor
- If ETH pulls back later, low-position long opportunities can still be considered
- If a short is filled near 1670, it should be managed according to the original plan
6.Altcoins and Strong Names: Focus on Strength, Avoid Weak Names Without Logic
This livestream also briefly reviewed several altcoins and theme-based names.
6.1 OPEN: Still Weak During the Market Rebound
Zeyu mentioned that OPEN had been followed earlier, but while BTC and ETH had already rebounded significantly, OPEN remained weak and even showed signs of moving lower again.
The problem with this type of name is clear: it does not follow the market when the market rebounds, but it may fall more sharply when the broader market pulls back. Without a clear trading logic, it is not suitable to hold stubbornly or chase.
6.2 ZEC: Large Volatility, but Directional Mistakes Carry High Risk
ZEC was described as a highly volatile name. It rebounded from the 300s to the 400s, which means the short-term range is large. But the same large range also means that if the direction is wrong, losses can expand quickly.
This type of coin is suitable only for traders with a clear plan. It is not suitable for random entries simply because the price is moving sharply.
6.3 HYPE and SOL: Strong Names Can Stay on the Watchlist
HYPE was mentioned as relatively strong, with some signs of independent strength. SOL also performed strongly, rebounding from the 60s to the 80s. The livestream mentioned that this may be related to on-chain ecosystem activity and Meme-related demand.
But strength does not mean traders should chase blindly. Zeyu's view remains that altcoins should only be traded when they have clear logic and clear strength. Traders should not open too many altcoin positions at the same time.
6.4 SPCX and Tokenized U.S. Stock Themes: Strong Theme, but Still Trade According to Plan
The livestream also mentioned that U.S. stocks have been relatively strong recently, and some tokenized U.S. stock themes, such as SPCX, have drawn attention. Zeyu said these themes can be watched, but they still should not be traded without a plan.
The common principles for altcoins and theme-based names are:
- If a name does not rise when the broader market rebounds, be careful
- Highly volatile coins require strict position control
- Strong names can be watched, but strength alone is not a reason to chase
- There may be altcoins with large daily drops every day, so liquidity risk must not be ignored
7.Prediction Market Tutorial: It Is Not Contract Trading, but Result-Based Event Trading
The second half of the livestream featured guest speaker mark (Houshanke), who shared an introduction to prediction markets.
He first emphasized that prediction markets and contract trading have different underlying logic.
Contract trading is process-driven. Traders make money from price movement and need to judge trends, candlesticks, indicators, funding rates, on-chain data, and market sentiment. Contracts can use leverage, so liquidation risk exists. If the position is too large, sharp market moves can lead to liquidation.
prediction markets are result-driven. Users buy whether a specific event will happen, for example:
- Whether BTC will go up or down in the next 1 hour, 4 hours, or 1 day
- Which team will win, lose, or draw in a football match
- Whether a real-world event will happen
prediction markets do not rely on traditional candlestick analysis. The core is judging the final outcome of an event. Prices change as users place real orders, so the market reflects probability judgments backed by real capital.
8.The Difference Between Prediction Markets and Traditional Sports Lottery
mark (Houshanke) also explained that prediction markets are different from traditional sports lottery or fixed-odds platforms.
Traditional sports lottery usually involves fixed odds. Users often place bets before a match and wait for the final result. prediction markets have different characteristics:
- 24-hour online trading, with no need to buy tickets offline
- Prices and odds change as the market buys and sells
- Users can buy before the event ends and can also sell during the event
- If the prediction is moving in the right direction before the event ends, users can sell early to lock in partial profit
- If the prediction is moving against them, users can also sell before the final result to reduce losses
For example, if the probability of a draw in a match starts at 19%, and later rises to 30% as the match develops, someone who bought early can choose to sell instead of waiting for the final score.
However, this does not mean prediction markets are risk-free. There may be slippage between buying and selling, and if the final outcome is wrong, principal can still be lost. prediction markets are not guaranteed-profit tools; they are a new form of event-based trading.
9.What Kind of User Is Better Suited for Prediction Markets?
mark (Houshanke) said prediction markets are most suitable for turning knowledge in familiar fields into tradable judgment.
If someone understands football, they may have an edge in World Cup prediction markets. If someone is strong in macro news, politics, weather, esports, or crypto market analysis, they may find opportunities in those areas.
Prediction markets are not about who uses higher leverage. They are about who has a better information edge and cognitive edge for a specific event.
A more reasonable way to participate:
- Start with fields you truly understand
- Do not force trades in markets you do not understand
- Use small capital first, such as 5 USDT, 10 USDT, or 20 USDT
- Understand the rules before increasing participation
- Do not be influenced by extreme wealth stories; those cases often include survivorship bias
10.World Cup Prediction: Understand the Settlement Rules First
At the end of the livestream, Zeyu added an important point about World Cup prediction markets: users must understand the market and settlement rules first.
For example, a football match may end in a draw during regular time and then decide the winner through extra time or penalties. If a user buys a regular-time win/loss market, and the match is tied at the end of regular time, the final winner after extra time or penalties may not make that prediction profitable.
Therefore, when participating in football prediction markets, users should pay attention to:
- Whether the market refers to regular time only, or includes extra time and penalties
- Whether the prediction is about win/loss or draw
- Different markets have different settlement rules
- If the rules are not clear, do not use a large position
This is also where prediction markets require risk management, just like contract trading. Being directionally right is not always enough. Misunderstanding the rules can also lead to losses.
11.Core Trading Principles
- Waiting is also part of trading. Do not force entries when the opportunity has not arrived.
- Rebounds can be traded, but a rebound should not be treated as a confirmed higher-timeframe reversal.
- BTC and ETH should be traded according to planned support and resistance zones. Do not chase longs or shorts blindly.
- Trend accounts and intraday accounts should be separated to avoid short-term volatility interfering with long-term positions.
- Only trade altcoins with clear logic and clear strength. Do not hold weak names stubbornly.
- Understand prediction market rules first, then test with small capital.
- All trades should follow a plan. Do not let information noise disrupt judgment.
12.Livestream Resources and Participation
Users who have not joined the KTX Official Lark Group can scan the QR code in the upper-right corner or at the bottom of the livestream screen. The group shares daily market views, livestream notifications, strategy reviews, prediction market tutorials, and related activities.
Baize Business School · 10 years of contract trading experience · Professional learning and practice for a different future
This article is compiled from the KTX official Chinese community livestream. All market analysis and trading ideas are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Crypto contracts, altcoins, and prediction markets all involve high risk. Please participate carefully based on your own risk tolerance.