This article is published under KTX Crypto Academy "Market Analysis" and is based on the official KTX Baize Academy Web3 market livestream. It covers BTC, ETH, altcoin opportunities, market reviews, and trading education. This session focused on BTC left-side positioning near 58K, Wyckoff volume-price analysis, liquidation heatmap interpretation, weekly Fibonacci retracement education, ETH floor-short risk, and SOL capital rotation logic.

Host: Mentor Baize

Platform: KTX Official Chinese Lark Group

Core Topics: BTC Left-Side Setup · Liquidation Heatmap Lesson · ETH Floor-Short Risk · SOL Capital Rotation

Full Livestream Replay:

The full KTX Baize Trading Academy Web3 market livestream has been uploaded to YouTube.

1.Key Takeaways

• BTC is not a simple bearish setup at the moment. The 58K area is a key support zone, and the instructor prefers starting with a light left-side position.
• From a Wyckoff volume-price perspective, if shorts sell with volume but still fail to break support, it means the support area may have stronger absorption.
• BTC has repeatedly "rallied and then dropped," which can train retail traders to short every bounce. However, price has not effectively broken the key support area.
• Liquidation heatmaps and liquidation maps show that short positions above the market are more crowded, so the market may be more likely to squeeze shorts first.
• The Fear & Greed Index is in extreme fear. When retail traders are afraid to go long and keep waiting for another drop, traders should be alert to a possible reversal or recovery.
• On the weekly timeframe, BTC's pullback to the 0.618 area after the large move from 15K to 125K does not destroy the higher-timeframe bullish structure.
• The BTC trading plan is to hold the left-side first entry, then wait for right-side breakouts and retests of key neckline levels before considering additional positions.
• ETH is not suitable for low-level shorts right now. A weekly bottom area plus a 4-hour double-bottom structure creates a higher-risk "floor short" zone.
• SOL has recently been stronger than BTC and ETH mainly because of capital rotation and composite linkage, but after its rebound, it is no longer the preferred long reference.
• The main lesson is not just about price levels. It is about combining volume-price analysis, liquidation data, Fibonacci retracements, and left-side/right-side execution into a trading system.

2.Core Questions From This Session

• Why can BTC around 58K be treated as a left-side first-entry area?
• In Wyckoff volume-price analysis, why is "high-volume selling without breakdown" often a stronger signal?
• How can liquidation heatmaps help judge whether the market is more likely to squeeze shorts first?
• Why does BTC's weekly 0.618 retracement not mean the bull-market structure is over?
• What do left-side first entry, right-side first entry, and right-side second entry mean?
• Why is ETH not suitable for shorting at the current level?
• Why has SOL been stronger than BTC and ETH in the short term, and why may that strength not continue?
• How do capital rotation and catch-up/catch-down effects affect the rhythm of BTC, ETH, and SOL?

3.Opening: Account Review and Brief Platform Overview

The livestream opened with a short introduction to KTX features, including market modules, selected tweets, principal-protected copy trading, prediction markets, and copy trading. Platform functions were not the main focus of this session. They were briefly shown to help new users understand where to view market data, copy trades, prediction markets, and community livestreams inside KTX.

In the account review, Mentor Baize mentioned that his copy-trading ranking was near the top, with roughly 19,000 USDT in profit over the past seven days. Current positions included ETH longs, OPEN longs, BTC longs, and SOL shorts. The BTC long from around 58,400 the previous night had already reached the take-profit area, and he later re-entered with a light base position.

The instructor emphasized that this market is not especially easy, but it is not without opportunities. The key is waiting, analysis, and position control, rather than opening trades casually whenever price moves.

4.BTC: Why Can the 58K Area Be Used for Left-Side Positioning?

4.1 Start With the 4-Hour Structure: Repeated Support Tests Without Effective Breakdown

BTC was the core asset of this session.

Mentor Baize first asked viewers to observe the BTC 4-hour chart and judge the current structure from volume-price behavior. BTC had returned to the 58K support area several times. On the surface, it looked weak and rebounds often failed. But the key point was that price had not truly broken below this support area.

The instructor noted that many retail traders see price "rally and then drop" repeatedly and develop a habit of shorting every bounce. However, the market is not decided by whether it "feels weak." The real question is whether price has broken the key level.

At the moment, BTC may look weak emotionally, but structurally it has not completed an effective breakdown.

4.2 Wyckoff Volume-Price Logic: High-Volume Selling Without Breakdown Shows Stronger Absorption

The instructor then explained two scenarios through Wyckoff volume-price logic.

First scenario: price falls without meaningful short-side volume and still fails to break support.

This means short-side strength is insufficient, and the support area may be effective.

Second scenario: shorts sell with volume, but price still fails to break support and later rebounds.

This is even stronger, because shorts have already used strength to push price down but still failed to break the support.

Mentor Baize believes BTC is closer to the second scenario. In other words, shorts have not been inactive; they tried to break support and failed. In this type of position, blindly chasing shorts has poor risk-reward.

5.Liquidation Heatmap: Why Are Shorts Above the Market More Likely to Be Squeezed?

After analyzing BTC's structure, the instructor moved to liquidation heatmaps and liquidation maps.

A liquidation heatmap reflects potential long and short liquidation pressure around different price zones. The deeper the color, the greater the liquidation pressure near that price area.

From the livestream screen, BTC's upper short-liquidation area was clearly more crowded, with larger accumulated short-side liquidation pressure. Lower long-side liquidation zones were comparatively less concentrated.

After checking the liquidation map, the instructor concluded that more traders were currently shorting the market. In other words, many traders were waiting for BTC to continue lower. If price repairs upward instead, short stop losses and liquidations are more likely to be triggered first.

This matched his repeated point: when the market is in extreme fear, retail traders are afraid to go long, and most people are waiting for further downside, traders should pay attention to the possibility of a counter-move.

The livestream also mentioned that the Fear & Greed Index was already in extreme fear. Mentor Baize argued that in this kind of environment, traders should not simply follow emotions and chase shorts. They need to combine structure, volume-price behavior, liquidation data, and positioning.

6.BTC Weekly Fibonacci: A 0.618 Pullback Does Not Mean the Trend Is Over

6.1 Use Log Scale for Fibonacci on Higher Timeframes

The second major BTC lesson was the weekly Fibonacci retracement.

The instructor specifically reminded viewers that when drawing Fibonacci levels on higher timeframes, they should use log scale rather than a normal linear scale. On a linear scale, each grid represents a fixed price difference. On a log scale, each grid represents a fixed percentage change. For an asset like BTC, which has moved massively over the long term, log scale is more suitable for higher-timeframe structure analysis.

6.2 From 15K to 125K, a Pullback to 0.618 Is Normal

In the livestream, the instructor connected BTC's weekly low around 15K to the high around 125K, then observed the retracement of that full move.

Structurally, BTC has completed a major rise from 15K to 125K. A deep pullback after such a move does not automatically mean that the trend has ended.

Mentor Baize believes BTC returning to the weekly Fibonacci 0.618 area is a very important level. The 0.618 retracement is one of the most important levels in the Fibonacci system. Price pulling back to this level should not be interpreted as proof that the higher-timeframe trend has fully broken down.

This is also why he believes the current BTC area has a relatively favorable long-side probability.

7.BTC Trading Plan: Left-Side First Entry, Then Right-Side First and Second Entries

7.1 Purpose of the Left-Side First Entry: Secure a Reasonable Average Price

The BTC plan was not to rush in with a heavy position. The first step was a left-side first entry.

The purpose of this left-side entry is to build a light position near key support when the analysis shows a favorable probability. If price later moves as expected, this base position may be close to the local low. If price does not strengthen immediately, the position will not become too passive because the size is light.

During the livestream, the instructor said clearly that this BTC left-side first entry does not need to be exited in a hurry and does not require excessive anxiety, because it is a light base position.

7.2 Right-Side First and Second Entries: Add After Breakout and Retest

After the left-side entry, the next step is not to keep adding immediately. Traders need to wait for the market to show direction.

If BTC later breaks the first key neckline and retests it without losing the level, a right-side first entry can be considered. If price then breaks a higher key level and confirms it on a retest, a right-side second entry can be considered.

The logic is:

• Left-side first entry: position early and secure a good average price
• Right-side first entry: first key level breaks and holds on retest
• Right-side second entry: second key level breaks and holds on retest

The instructor emphasized that trading is not just about one price level. It is a probability game. Left-side trades are not forbidden, but they must have enough supporting evidence and light position size. Right-side trades are for adding after market confirmation.

8.Trading Lesson: Direction Matters More Than Details

There was also a broader trading mindset discussion during the livestream.

Mentor Baize argued that the core of both life and trading is choice. In trading, this means judging the direction first. If the direction is wrong, even precise entries and disciplined execution can still produce poor results.

For example, if BTC is in a clear downtrend, chasing longs at any level can be painful. But if BTC is sitting in a support zone with conditions for a rebound, then a light left-side entry can make sense.

The instructor also reminded viewers that trading cannot rely only on feeling. Today's BTC analysis used:

• Wyckoff volume-price logic
• Liquidation heatmaps and liquidation maps
• Long-short positioning and order-flow thinking
• Weekly Fibonacci retracement
• Left-side first entry, right-side first entry, and right-side second entry
• Retest-based adding after key neckline breakouts

These tools are not used to make trading look complicated. They are used to turn "feeling" into a method.

9.ETH: Weekly Bottom Area Plus 4-Hour Double Bottom, Not Suitable for Low-Level Shorts

9.1 ETH Is Less Clear Than BTC

For ETH, Mentor Baize first stated that the current ETH setup is not as clear as BTC.

On the weekly chart, ETH has a double-wick bottoming look. On the 4-hour chart, there is a structure similar to a double bottom, and a rising channel can be roughly drawn. But this does not mean ETH has fully turned strong, because another retest is still possible.

The instructor described this as a floor-like area. A weekly bottom zone plus a 4-hour double-bottom structure makes low-level shorts uncomfortable if they get trapped.

The ETH conclusion was direct:

• ETH direction is less clear than BTC.
• If traders must participate, long-side thinking is preferable to short-side thinking.
• Avoid low-level "floor shorts."
• Even if ETH still looks weak, be alert to fake weakness and short traps.

10.SOL: Capital Rotation and Catch-Up/Catch-Down Effects

10.1 Why Has SOL Been Stronger Than BTC and ETH Recently?

The last major topic was SOL.

The instructor introduced two key terms: capital rotation and composite linkage.

The market currently has no clear rate-cut signal, so it is still mostly a game of existing capital. When SOL rises sharply, it often means part of the capital is rotating out of BTC, ETH, or other major coins and into SOL's short-term strength.

This is capital rotation: the same pool of capital switching between assets, rather than a large amount of new money suddenly entering the market.

10.2 After SOL's Catch-Up Move, It May No Longer Be the Preferred Long Reference

The instructor further explained that SOL's recent strength came from the fact that SOL had previously fallen faster relative to BTC, so it was now rebounding after becoming oversold. This can be observed through the SOL/BTC relative-strength chart.

When SOL/BTC keeps moving lower, it means SOL is falling faster than BTC. When it rebounds, it is essentially doing a relative catch-up move.

But a catch-up move does not mean SOL will remain the strongest long-side asset. The instructor believes SOL has already rebounded ahead of BTC and ETH. If BTC and ETH start to catch up, SOL's upside space may become limited.

A more reasonable framework going forward is:

• Do not use SOL as the primary long reference anymore.
• Focus more on whether BTC and ETH begin to catch up.
• If existing SOL shorts are trapped, wait to see whether capital rotation creates an exit opportunity.
• SOL may even become a short-side hedge against BTC/ETH long exposure later.

11.Core Trading Principles

1. Do not judge only by whether price "feels weak." Watch whether key support has actually broken.
2. High-volume selling without support breakdown often means absorption is stronger than it appears.
3. Liquidation heatmaps and liquidation maps can help judge which side of the market is more crowded.
4. In extreme fear, do not blindly chase shorts. Combine volume-price behavior, liquidation data, and structure for counter-thinking.
5. BTC's weekly 0.618 retracement is a key observation zone, not proof that the higher-timeframe trend has ended.
6. Left-side trades can be taken, but they must be light and supported by enough analysis.
7. Right-side adds should wait for key neckline breakouts and retest confirmation, not emotional chasing.
8. ETH has limited downside space at the current level. Low-level shorts are floor shorts with poor risk-reward.
9. SOL's strength comes more from capital rotation and relative catch-up, not necessarily from sustainable forward strength.
10. Trading needs a method, not just feeling. Directional choice matters more than entry-detail precision.

12.Livestream Resources and Participation

Users who have not joined the KTX official Lark group can scan the QR code in the upper-right corner or at the bottom of the livestream screen. The group shares daily market views, livestream notifications, strategy reviews, and related activities.

Baize Academy · 10 Years of Contract Trading Experience · Professional Learning and Practice for a Different Future

This article is based on the KTX official Chinese community livestream. All market analysis and trading ideas are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency contract trading carries high risk. Please participate cautiously based on your own risk tolerance.