This article is published under KTX Crypto Academy "Market Analysis" and is based on the official KTX Baize Academy Web3 market livestream. It covers BTC, ETH, altcoin opportunities, market reviews, and trading education. This session focused on the ETH 1533-1566 intraday rebound plan, the BTC 48K-51K spot watch zone, and the trading risks around OPEN, HYPE, LAB, ZEC, MYX, and other altcoins in a weak market.

Host: Mentor Zeyu

Platform: KTX Official Chinese Lark Group

Core Topics: ETH Intraday Rebound Plan · BTC Spot Watch Zone · Altcoin Risk Control

Full Livestream Replay:

The full KTX Baize Trading Academy Web3 market livestream has been uploaded to YouTube.

1.Key Takeaways

• ETH remains weak on the higher timeframes, with no clear reversal on the monthly, weekly, or daily charts.
• The ETH 1533-1566 area is an intraday left-side rebound setup, not a trend long. Position size must stay light.
• If ETH breaks below the 1500 area, the current intraday long should not be forced. Further downside acceleration may follow.
• BTC is still trading inside the 58K-61K short-term range. A light long around 58K-59K is only an intraday trade and does not change the broader bearish view.
• BTC 48K-51K is more suitable as a staged spot accumulation watch zone. There is no need to rush into leveraged trend longs.
• June, July, and August may form the second major opportunity window of the year. The most important preparation is for spot accumulation after downside acceleration.
• Trend accounts and intraday accounts should be separated. Otherwise, short-term fluctuations can interfere with trend-position execution.
• Altcoins still require caution. OPEN showed how weak altcoins can become when the broader market drops. HYPE and LAB are relatively stronger, but they should not be chased blindly.
• Gold has already pulled back from its highs, but it is still not an ideal area for aggressive bottom-fishing. The instructor prefers waiting for a deeper correction.

2.Core Questions From This Session

• Why is ETH 1533-1566 only an intraday left-side rebound setup?
• Why should traders avoid holding ETH longs if ETH breaks below 1500?
• Why is BTC 48K-51K more suitable for spot observation rather than heavy leveraged longs?
• If the higher-timeframe view is bearish, why were intraday BTC/ETH long setups still given?
• Why should traders avoid most altcoins in the current market?
• Why are HYPE and LAB stronger than ordinary altcoins?
• Why must trend accounts and intraday accounts be separated?

3.Opening Review: Trading Experience and the Next Major Opportunity

Mentor Zeyu opened the session by reviewing several important market cycles from his own trading experience.

He described 2019 as a year of paying tuition and building trading awareness. At that time, he would often enter trades simply because a price looked attractive, without a systematic understanding of trend structure, entry patterns, moving averages, MACD, volume, or other tools. After the March 12, 2020 black swan event, many traders realized that extreme volatility in crypto could go far beyond normal expectations.

As his market understanding improved, he once bought ETH spot around the 400-dollar area and later made roughly 7-8x returns. However, in 2023, he also sold BTC and ETH spot too early due to limited conviction, taking only around 1x profit and missing SOL's major recovery from low levels.

The point of this review was not to highlight profits, but to stress one key trading lesson: major opportunities often appear when the market is falling, fear is high, and liquidity is poor, not when everyone is chasing higher prices.

For the current cycle, the instructor maintained his previous broader view: BTC may return toward the 50K area or even lower, while ETH has already approached the previously discussed sub-1500 region. June has ended, and July and August may still bring one of the most important low-price opportunities of the year.

The overall framework is:

• Accumulate spot gradually during declines.
• Sell spot or close longs gradually during rallies.
• Avoid chasing at high levels.
• Be more cautious with leveraged trend longs than with spot positions.

4.Trading Workflow: Separate Trend Accounts and Intraday Accounts

The livestream again emphasized the importance of account management.

Mentor Zeyu suggested preparing at least two accounts: one trend account and one intraday account.

The trend account should only handle larger-timeframe plans. For example, traders can place staged trend shorts at high levels, then later place staged spot or trend-long entries when the market reaches lower zones. Once those orders are set, the account should not be touched too frequently, because short-term fluctuations can cause traders to exit large opportunities too early.

The intraday account is used for daily market analysis and short-term trading plans. Setups such as today's ETH 1533-1566 area or BTC 58K-59K light long plan belong in the intraday account, not in the trend account.

The instructor stressed that trades with different timeframes must be separated. If trend trades and intraday trades are mixed in the same account, short-term profit and loss can easily affect judgment and cause traders to miss the real large move.

5.ETH: 1533-1566 Is an Intraday Rebound, Not a Trend Long

5.1 Monthly Chart: The Higher-Timeframe Structure Remains Weak

ETH still looks weak on the monthly chart.

From the monthly timeframe, Mentor Zeyu noted that ETH is still moving downward along the monthly 5-period moving average. Based on the current structure, that moving average may continue to move lower next month. This means that even if ETH sees a short-term rebound, the higher-timeframe weakness has not truly been resolved.

He believes ETH spot can be observed in lower zones, such as the 1100-1400 area. However, leveraged contracts cannot be handled the same way as spot, because contracts can be affected by sharp wick moves and forced liquidations.

5.2 Weekly Chart: 1650-1690 Remains a Rebound Resistance Zone

On the weekly chart, ETH's rebound yesterday nearly reached the weekly 5-period moving average area. The 1650-1690 short watch zone mentioned in previous livestreams was essentially a test of whether ETH could break above resistance during a weak cycle.

So far, the result is not strong. Price rebounded but failed to continue higher, then dropped again. If ETH keeps moving lower along the weekly 5-period moving average, this rebound is likely just a weak recovery, not a trend reversal.

5.3 Daily Chart: 1580 Failed to Hold, So 1533-1566 Can Only Be a Light Setup

The daily structure is even weaker.

During the livestream, the instructor mentioned that ETH had attempted a rebound around the 1580 area during the day, but that level failed to hold. If price cannot recover by the daily close, the short-term structure becomes more dangerous.

The ETH intraday plan for the day was a light long around 1533-1566.

However, he repeatedly emphasized that this is not a trend long. It is a left-side intraday rebound trade. Since there is no confirmed reversal structure yet, any long must be light, and traders may also choose not to participate.

In terms of risk control, the stop-loss space is roughly 50 dollars. If ETH breaks below the 1500 area, there is no need to force this intraday long. Once 1500 is lost, price may accelerate toward 1400 or even 1300.

5.4 Short-Term Trendline: If the Small Channel Fails, the Rebound Ends

On the shorter timeframe, the only visible bullish structure in ETH is the small rising channel around the 4-hour chart.

The instructor explained that 1566 was not an arbitrary level. It was based on short-term structure and support. If this small channel can hold, ETH may still rebound. If it breaks and cannot recover, the rebound is likely over.

This is why an intraday long could be considered today, but only with a stop loss and light position size.

6.BTC: 58K-61K Range, While 48K-51K Is the Spot Watch Zone

6.1 Monthly Chart: A Clear Top-Like Structure With Further Downside Risk

BTC is also weak on the higher timeframe.

From the monthly chart, Mentor Zeyu said the current BTC candle looks like a high-level top structure. The decline from the high to around 58K has already formed a large monthly body, and the next one or two months may still bring further downside.

The key area for spot observation is roughly 48K-51K. This zone is more suitable for staged spot planning, not leveraged trend longs.

The reason is simple: spot can tolerate wicks and short-term volatility, while contracts cannot. If BTC sees a panic-driven selloff, leveraged positions may be stopped or liquidated near the low.

6.2 Intraday Plan: 58K-59K Is a Light Trade, Not a Higher-Timeframe Reversal

Today's BTC intraday plan was to participate lightly around 58K-59K.

This does not conflict with the broader bearish view. The instructor explained that the monthly, weekly, and daily charts are used for the larger direction, while intraday plans focus on short-term movement. BTC is still inside the 58K-61K range, which offers around 3000 dollars of space. That can be traded intraday, but it should not be treated as a trend reversal.

Yesterday's BTC rebound only reached around 60,700 and still failed to leave the 58K-61K box. The rebound lacked volume and strength, showing that the market has not turned clearly bullish.

6.3 A Decline Is Not Bad. The Key Is Whether You Buy Spot or Trade Leverage

Mentor Zeyu repeatedly stressed that, for this year's major opportunity, a decline is not a bad thing.

The real question is not whether a drop can be bought, but how it should be bought.

If using spot, traders can begin staged observation around 48K-51K. If using leveraged trend longs, it is still too early to rush into positions. The instructor stated clearly that when it is time to build trend positions, he will explain the entry method.

For traders who already hold high-position trend shorts, there is no need to panic because of short-term rebounds. Once the market accelerates lower, positions can be reduced gradually. There is no need to close everything at once, because the actual bottom still needs confirmation from the market.

7.Gold: Pullback From Highs, but Still No Need to Bottom-Fish Aggressively

The gold section focused mainly on investment rhythm.

Gold rose strongly in the first half of the year, and many people in the market were talking about chasing gold and silver. However, the instructor does not like buying into sharp rallies. He prefers waiting for larger pullbacks and better low-price opportunities.

Gold has already pulled back from its previous highs, but he believes it has not yet reached an ideal bottom-fishing area. Further correction is still possible.

Gold has real value, and that is not the issue. The issue is entry price. If traders chase gold at high levels, the position becomes speculation that requires constant risk control, rather than a comfortable long-term hold.

8.Altcoins: When the Broader Market Is Unstable, Less Is Better

8.1 OPEN: Weak Altcoins Have Little Defense When the Market Drops

OPEN was an important risk case in this session.

Mentor Zeyu mentioned that he had a relatively heavy OPEN position, with an average entry around 0.1914-0.194. During the livestream, the price was around 0.16. Based on that level, OPEN would need roughly a 20%-25% rebound just to return to his cost area.

He also directly admitted that this OPEN trade gave back a meaningful part of previous profits.

The key point is that altcoins often have little defense when the broader market falls. Unless a coin has already developed an independent trend like LAB, ordinary altcoins often fall faster and harder when BTC and ETH weaken.

So OPEN was not just a discussion about one token. It was a reminder that oversized altcoin positions can become very passive when the broader market drops.

8.2 HYPE: Relatively Strong, but Broader Market Risk Still Matters

HYPE was one of the relatively stronger names in this session.

The instructor mentioned that he had traded HYPE yesterday and closed or managed the position after it rose in the morning. From the chart structure, HYPE was clearly stronger than BTC and ETH. BTC and ETH had already broken below the daily 5-period moving average, while HYPE had not yet done so.

His view was that if HYPE had fully followed the broader market, its price might already be around 60.5. Instead, it was still around 64.8, showing relative strength.

However, strength does not mean there is no risk. If the broader market keeps falling, HYPE may still move lower. Traders with trapped HYPE shorts may get an opportunity to exit if the market weakens further, but new positions still require strict position control.

8.3 LAB: An Independent Trend, but Not a Reason to Chase

LAB was used as a comparison against OPEN.

When a token truly forms an independent trend, its correlation with the broader market becomes lower, and it can move more on its own. LAB had already shown a clear independent move earlier, which is why the instructor used it as an example against ordinary altcoins.

But LAB is still not something to chase blindly. Independent trends often come with larger volatility. They can rise sharply, but they can also fall quickly. Anyone participating must still control position size and avoid ignoring risk simply because the token looks strong.

8.4 ZEC: Continue Watching Around 400, Do Not Chase

ZEC was discussed more as a structural observation case.

From the chart, ZEC was still moving around the 400 area, with several Fibonacci levels visible as references. In the short term, traders need to watch whether the 400 area can be reclaimed or held. If price weakens further, lower support levels remain important.

The instructor remained cautious on this type of coin. Traders should not blindly bottom-fish just because price has fallen a lot, and they should not emotionally chase shorts at low levels. A more reasonable approach is to wait for price to reach key areas, then combine broader market direction with right-side structure before acting.

8.5 MYX: Without an Independent Trend, Do Not Expect It to Rise Alone

During the Q&A, a user asked about MYX.

Mentor Zeyu's answer was direct: when the broader market is unstable, all altcoins without independent trends lack certainty.

MYX has not shown an independent structure like LAB. If the broader market continues to fall, this type of altcoin is more likely to keep falling, and the decline may be larger than BTC or ETH.

Therefore, the current principle is to avoid most altcoins. Even if participating, traders should use light positions and avoid betting heavily on whether a token can move independently.

9.Core Trading Principles

1. Higher-timeframe direction and intraday trades must be separated. An intraday long does not mean a trend reversal.
2. Trend accounts and intraday accounts must be separated to prevent short-term emotions from affecting larger positions.
3. Left-side trades must use light size, especially setups like ETH 1533-1566 where no confirmed reversal exists yet.
4. If ETH breaks below 1500, intraday longs should not be forced. Downside acceleration may follow.
5. BTC 48K-51K is more suitable for staged spot observation. Leveraged trend longs should wait for clearer opportunities.
6. A decline can be an opportunity for spot accumulation, but it is a risk for high-leverage contracts.
7. Avoid most altcoins when the broader market is unstable, unless they have already formed clear independent trends.
8. HYPE and LAB are relatively strong, but that does not justify heavy chasing. OPEN shows how passive oversized altcoin positions can become.
9. High-position trend shorts can be managed according to plan. After downside acceleration, reduce positions gradually instead of closing everything at once.
10. When the structure is unclear, do not force trades. Wait for the market to provide clearer confirmation.

10.Livestream Resources and Participation

Users who have not joined the KTX official Lark group can scan the QR code in the upper-right corner or at the bottom of the livestream screen. The group shares daily market views, livestream notifications, strategy reviews, and related activities.

Baize Academy · 10 Years of Contract Trading Experience · Professional Learning and Practice for a Different Future

This article is based on the KTX official Chinese community livestream. All market analysis and trading ideas are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency contract trading carries high risk. Please participate cautiously based on your own risk tolerance.