Summary

BTC long-term-holder (LTH) panic-selling data has shown an important shift. In the previous three fast selloffs, LTH loss transfers to exchanges rose step by step from 7,462 BTC to 11,213 BTC and then 12,217 BTC. But on June 26, 2026, when BTC fell to around $58,000, the peak came in lower at 9,381 BTC. This lower high may suggest that price-sensitive and less committed LTH supply has been further flushed out, and that supply-side selling pressure is moving closer to exhaustion.

KTX Crypto Portfolio Note

For the KTX Crypto portfolio, this community view should be treated as a supply-side signal for bottom formation. The key point is not that a reversal has already been confirmed, but whether sell pressure is starting to decline:

• LTH panic-selling peak is lower than the previous one: panic selling may be forming an inflection point.
• Supply-side pressure is decreasing: this helps a bottoming zone form, but it does not mean the trend reverses immediately.
• Continue watching whether future drops fail to produce larger LTH loss-transfer peaks: if lower peaks continue, the supply-exhaustion signal becomes stronger.
• For portfolio execution, this can be added to the bottom-signal checklist, but it still needs confirmation from price structure, volume, ETF/institutional behavior, and other on-chain indicators.

Original Post Collection

LTH panic-selling data has finally shown an inflection point.

On June 15, BTC began a fast decline from $66,000 to $58,000. During this move, we kept watching the data on LTH panic selling.

In the first selloff on November 21, 2025, LTHs produced 7,462 BTC of loss-making supply. This had not happened before because during the bull-market phase, almost 100% of LTH supply was in profit.

The second selloff produced 11,213 BTC on February 6, 2026. The third produced 12,217 BTC on June 4, 2026. As the bear market deepened, lower prices forced out more panic supply.

This time, when price fell to $58,000, the peak was 9,381 BTC on June 26, 2026. That means the previous trend of rising peaks across the first three selloffs has now shown an inflection point.

Is this a sign that panic supply is gradually being cleared, or that selling pressure from the LTH supply side is gradually drying up? Personally, I think yes.

The logic is simple: in a bear market, even if demand is zero, price will stop falling as long as supply also falls to zero. Conversely, in a bull market, even if supply is zero, price cannot rise if demand is also zero.

Some people say a bear-market bottom requires “no one buying.” I do not see it that way. A bear-market bottom should mean “no one selling.” Whether there are many buyers mainly affects how long the bottoming process lasts and when the trend reversal begins.

Therefore, at the current stage, the clearing of panic supply and supply-side exhaustion matter much more for bottom formation than the recovery of demand. Demand becomes more important later, before the early bull-market trend begins.

The value of this data is that it tells us something about the group controlling 75% of BTC’s liquid supply: among LTHs, those who were less committed and more price-sensitive have almost all handed over their coins.

If we compare this with the data changes from the previous two cycles, the process becomes clearer: the formation of a bear-market bottom is the process of supply exhaustion.

This is the precondition for a bottom. If this condition has not been met, there is no point talking about a “bottom.” The appearance of this inflection point is therefore highly meaningful.