KTX Crypto Market Analysis: BTC 63.55K-64.44K Rebound Short Zone, ETH 1700 Resistance, and the July-August Spot Accumulation Window (June 24 Livestream Recap)

This article is published under KTX Crypto Academy's "Market Analysis" section and is based on the KTX Baize Academy Web3 official market livestream. It covers BTC, ETH, altcoin opportunities, market review, and trading education. This session focuses on BTC's 63.55K-64.44K rebound short zone, ETH's intraday resistance near 1700, the July-August spot accumulation window, OPEN/ZEC/HYPE/LAB altcoin strategies, and position management during a bear market.

Instructor: Zeyu, with 7-8 years of crypto contract trading experience

Platform: KTX Official Chinese Lark Group

Date: June 24, 2026

Core Focus: BTC rebound shorts · ETH 1700 resistance · July-August accumulation window · Light-position altcoin strategy

Full Livestream Replay:

The full KTX Baize Trading Academy Web3 market livestream has been uploaded to YouTube.

1.Key Takeaways

The broader market is still being treated as a bear-market/downtrend structure, so the main contract-trading approach remains shorting rebounds rather than rushing into longs.
BTC is currently fluctuating around 62K-63K with low liquidity, and effective trading opportunities are limited.
BTC's weekly MA5 is still acting as resistance. The 65K area this week and the 64K area next week remain important resistance zones to watch.
BTC's intraday short setup was planned around 63.55K-64.44K. Price came close but did not reach the planned zone, so chasing shorts was not recommended.
The previous ETH long setup was abandoned because ETH was too weak and its decline was too smooth. The trend short around 1838 was a more comfortable position.
ETH's intraday rebound-short area was around 1700. The actual high was near 1693, just short of the planned entry.
Zeyu believes July-August may become a larger spot accumulation window, with BTC worth watching around 48K-52K and ETH around 1100-1500.
Altcoins can be traded, but only with small size and short-term thinking. When the broader market is unstable, altcoins often follow declines more than rebounds.

2.Core Questions From This Session

Why are BTC and ETH still being treated mainly as rebound-short markets instead of immediate bullish reversals?
After BTC almost reached the 63.55K-64.44K short zone but failed to trigger the setup, why should traders avoid chasing shorts at lower levels?
Why is ETH more suitable for short setups than rushed longs above 1600?
Why is July-August being treated as a more important spot accumulation window?
Why should OPEN, ZEC, HYPE, and LAB be handled with light positions?

3.Trading Background: Bear Markets Can Still Make Money, but Long-Side Efficiency Is Lower Than in Bull Markets

Zeyu began by reviewing his trading background.

He entered the crypto market in 2019 and started trading contracts on his first day. In the early stage, he also experienced a period of placing trades without technical analysis and relying mostly on instinct. During the March 12, 2020 black swan event, BTC fell from above 9000 to around 3000, while ETH dropped from several hundred dollars to around 80-90. That market showed many traders how extreme bear-market volatility can be.

However, Zeyu emphasized that a bear market does not mean there are no opportunities.

The key difference is:

In a bull market, long positions can potentially rise several times or even dozens of times.
In a bear market, the theoretical maximum downside for shorting is only 100%.
A bear market can still be profitable, but its efficiency and margin for error are weaker than those of a bull market.
The current market is more suitable for cautious rebound shorts and patient preparation for major opportunities, rather than forcing long trades every day.

He also mentioned that altcoins are highly volatile, with moves of several dozen percentage points being common. By comparison, BTC and ETH may move more slowly, but they are more stable and more suitable for intraday and trend trading.

4.Trading System: Intraday and Trend Accounts Must Be Separated

In this livestream, Zeyu again emphasized the importance of separating accounts.

He suggested that traders should have at least two accounts: one for intraday trades and one for trend trades. These two trading timeframes are completely different. If they are mixed in the same account, short-term volatility can easily affect trend positions, and trend positions can also interfere with intraday execution.

He used the trend short setup around last year's National Day period as an example:

At that time, BTC, ETH, and other major coins gave short opportunities at high levels.
Around October 10, the market fell sharply, and many traders closed early because profits came too quickly.
The market then continued to move lower as expected, but traders who had already closed their trend positions found it difficult to re-enter at good levels.

This is why trend accounts and intraday accounts need to be separated.

The intraday account can follow daily short-term plans. The trend account needs to tolerate volatility and should not close a larger-level position just because it has made profit for one or two days.

5.Tool Usage: Information Can Be Referenced, but It Should Not Replace Your Own Judgment

Zeyu also briefly demonstrated several KTX platform entrances, including market data, AI tweets, and prediction markets.

He reminded traders that AI tweets, popular market views, and on-chain information can all be used as references, but they should not disrupt one's own trading judgment. On Twitter, there will always be bullish voices and bearish voices at the same time. If traders do not have their own system, reading more information may only make them more confused.

A more reasonable approach is:

Use external information only as supplementary observation.
Bring the trading direction back to your own system.
Do not directly copy either bullish or bearish views.
Final execution should still depend on your own levels, position size, and risk tolerance.

This is also important for SEO/GEO: KTX Crypto Academy's market analysis does not simply repost opinions. It organizes the trading logic, risk reminders, and execution methods from the livestream so users can review them more clearly.

6.BTC: Low-Liquidity Consolidation, With 63.55K-64.44K as the More Comfortable Rebound-Short Zone

BTC is still in a low-liquidity consolidation environment.

Zeyu mentioned that BTC has been moving back and forth around 62K-63K, with only about 1.5% of total range. For normal position sizing, this is not a major move. But for traders using 100x, 200x, or even higher leverage with full-size positions, this level of volatility can already create significant risk.

The current BTC view:

Overall market liquidity remains low.
Effective trading time is limited.
The daily structure is still weak.
Shorting rebounds remains the main approach.
Chasing shorts at low levels is not meaningful and can easily be disrupted by short-term rebounds.

The main tools Zeyu used were Fibonacci and MA5. He believes the weekly MA5 still has clear resistance effect on BTC. The 65K area is this week's resistance zone, and the MA5 may move down toward the 64K area next week.

For the intraday plan, the original BTC short zone was around 63.55K-64.44K, but the actual market high came very close and failed to reach it.

Zeyu's response was clear: if price does not reach the planned area, do not force the trade.

The reason is that if traders chase shorts at low levels, price can rebound back toward 61K-62K or even higher at any time, making the position uncomfortable. A more reasonable approach is:

Short only when price rebounds into the planned zone.
If there is no rebound, do nothing.
Chasing after a breakdown may only capture a small move, while the risk-reward is uncomfortable.
Position size should leave room for later additions.

7.ETH: 1700 Is the Intraday Resistance Area, While 1838 Was the More Comfortable Trend Short

ETH was discussed in detail during this session.

Zeyu said that the previous day's ETH long setup was abandoned and was not given to the group. The reason was that ETH's decline was too smooth, making short-term longs difficult to hold and easy to get trapped in.

He mentioned that ETH had previously given a better trend-short area around 1838. If a trader already entered a short near 1838, then the current market fluctuation is not a major concern. If price drops, the position continues to profit; if price rebounds, there may still be opportunities to add.

But if a trader did not catch the higher-level short around 1838, it is not suitable to chase heavily now as a trend short. At this stage, it should only be handled as an intraday trade.

The intraday ETH short plan for this session was around 1700. The actual high was around 1693, missing the entry by a little more than ten dollars.

Zeyu believes ETH is currently frustrating in the short term: it does not rally cleanly, but it also does not immediately break down. From the larger structure, however, ETH remains weak, and its declines are smoother than BTC's.

His conclusion:

ETH longs are not being considered for now.
A rebound toward 1700 can be watched for an intraday short.
The 1838 area was the better earlier trend-short zone.
Without a high-level short position, do not chase heavily at low levels.
ETH may still have another accelerated decline ahead.

Zeyu also mentioned that ETH's weekly MA5 still shows clear resistance. In a bear market, price often continues to move lower along the weekly MA5, and the current structure has not shown a real trend reversal yet.

8.July-August Accumulation Window: Watch BTC 48K-52K and ETH 1100-1500 in Batches

The most important medium-to-long-term view in this session was Zeyu's outlook for the July-August opportunity window.

He believes the market may still need another accelerated decline. After that acceleration, the market may need around two to three months of consolidation and washout before gradually forming a larger-level bottom.

For spot positions, his idea is not to guess the exact bottom, but to prepare in batches.

Key observation zones:

BTC: The 48K-52K area can be watched closely for phased accumulation.
ETH: The 1100-1500 range can be used for phased buying. A partial position can be considered around 1500, with further additions around 1100-1200.
BNB: Like BTC and ETH, BNB is still one of the long-term value assets Zeyu is willing to watch.

Zeyu emphasized that traders should not expect to buy the exact bottom in one attempt. The real bottom is very difficult to catch precisely. A more realistic method is:

Start buying in batches once price reaches the expected zone.
Do not go all-in with one order.
Consider spot first, then later evaluate contract opportunities.
Major opportunities require preparation before they arrive, not chasing after the market has already reversed.

He also clearly stated that July-August may become a major opportunity window. Large opportunities may appear roughly once every four years, while smaller opportunities may appear around twice a year. If a trader misses another major window, it may take a long time to wait for the next one.

9.Cross-Market Observation: Do Not Chase Gold at High Levels, Pullback Risk Remains

Zeyu also briefly discussed gold and U.S. equities.

For gold, he believes the current price is relatively high and does not recommend chasing longs at elevated levels. Gold has value as an asset, but that does not mean every price is suitable for buying.

His view:

Gold currently looks more like a high-level pullback structure.
MA5 has started to act as resistance.
In the short term, he does not recommend chasing gold at high levels.
If someone bought gold much earlier at low levels, they can continue holding it. But if someone is only now trying to chase it for investment purposes, the risk-reward is not attractive.

For U.S. equities, Zeyu believes the market is still in a strong trend, but shorting right now may be too early because the high has not been confirmed.

This section is only a cross-market reference. The core trading focus remains the crypto market.

10.OPEN: Bottom Structure Is Worth Watching, but Altcoin Longs Must Control Risk

In the altcoin section, Zeyu first discussed OPEN.

He said he still holds an OPEN position, with an average price around 0.194, and is currently in some unrealized loss. He still thinks OPEN looks somewhat like a bottoming structure, but he also clearly warned that being bullish on altcoins is difficult when the broader market is unstable.

OPEN's core handling logic:

Structurally, it has some bottom-observation value.
It is still heavily affected by the broader market.
Altcoins often follow declines more than rebounds.
Even if the setup is promising, it should not be held with heavy size.

The key point here is not that "OPEN will definitely rise." The key point is that altcoin longs must accept higher volatility. If the broader market continues to fall, altcoins like OPEN can still be dragged lower even if they have their own independent logic.

11.ZEC and HYPE: Strong Altcoins Can Also Catch Up on the Downside, Rebound Shorts Remain Worth Watching

ZEC is still being treated with a bearish bias.

Zeyu mentioned that ZEC's weekly MA5 is still acting as clear resistance. If it continues to be rejected around 447 next week, it may continue lower afterward. Especially when the broader market is unstable, relatively strong altcoins such as ZEC and HYPE may instead see larger accelerated declines.

HYPE's chart is stronger than many other altcoins, but Zeyu believes that if it rebounds toward the 66-71 area later, traders can watch for small-position short opportunities.

HYPE handling principles:

Do not chase shorts at low levels.
Wait for a rebound into a more comfortable area.
The 66-71 area can be used as a small-position short observation zone.
Altcoin positions should not be too large.

12.LAB: Strong Momentum, but the Move Is Too Large; Watch Around $40 Before Considering Shorts

LAB was one of the more detailed altcoin discussions in this session.

Zeyu believes LAB is indeed strong and its recent trend is very recognizable. But it has already risen more than one hundred times from its lows, making continued long chasing very risky.

His idea:

Do not casually chase longs at the current level.
If there is another extreme pump later, shorts can be observed around $40.
If price does not reach $40, there is no need to force the trade.
Shorting altcoin rebounds is mainly about capturing one segment, not expecting to catch every exact bottom.

Zeyu also reviewed several previous LAB short trades, including rebound shorts near 18.1, 19.85, and 19.4, all of which produced profits. The core logic was still "place shorts on rebounds, take profit, and leave," rather than heavily shorting without risk control.

13.Altcoin Trading Principles: Small Trades Are Fine, Heavy Positions Are Not

Near the end, Zeyu used an altcoin chart to explain altcoin-trading risk.

Some altcoins may look like they are forming a flag after a rally, and they may continue higher after breaking the previous high. But altcoins cannot fully follow the same technical-analysis logic as BTC and ETH.

The reasons:

Altcoin consensus is less stable than that of major coins.
Market caps are smaller, making them easier for capital to influence.
Candlestick patterns can be artificially shaped.
When the broader market falls, altcoins often fall more.
Profits can come quickly, but losses can also come quickly.

Zeyu's suggestion was clear: altcoins can be traded with small size, but they should not be held with heavy positions.

If traders want to participate in altcoins, a more reasonable approach is:

Small position size.
Short timeframe.
Take profit and leave when the trade works.
Do not treat altcoins as the core position of the main account.
When the broader market is unstable, prioritize BTC and ETH.

14.Core Trading Principles

The main contract-trading approach remains shorting rebounds. Do not rush to turn BTC and ETH into bullish setups.
BTC 63.55K-64.44K was the planned zone. If price does not reach it, do not chase; low-level shorts can easily be disrupted by rebounds.
ETH 1700 is an intraday resistance area, while 1838 was the better trend-short location.
Spot accumulation should be done in batches. Do not expect to buy the exact bottom in one order.
July-August may become a larger-level opportunity window. Preparing in advance matters more than chasing later.
Altcoins can be traded, but not with heavy size. When the broader market is unstable, altcoins are more likely to catch up on the downside.
External information can be referenced, but final trading decisions must return to one's own system, levels, and position size.

15.Livestream Resources and Participation

Users who have not joined the KTX official Lark group can scan the QR code in the upper-right corner or at the bottom of the livestream. The group shares daily market views, livestream notifications, strategy reviews, and related activities.

Baize Academy · 10 years of contract trading experience · Professional learning and practice for a different future

This article is based on content from the KTX official Chinese community livestream. All market analysis and trading suggestions are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Crypto contract trading carries extremely high risk. Please participate carefully according to your own risk tolerance.