KTX Crypto Market Analysis: BTC 62.9K Pullback Short Setup, ETH 1688/1699 Short Orders, and Profit-Adding Trading Lessons (June 23 Livestream Recap)

This article is published under KTX Crypto Academy's "Market Analysis" section and is based on the KTX Baize Academy Web3 official market livestream. It covers BTC, ETH, altcoin opportunities, market review, and trading education. This session focuses on BTC's short setup after breaking below its trendline, ETH's 1688/1699 short-order plan, SOL/ZEC/HYPE altcoin strategies, notional value, adding to winning positions, rolling trend positions, and support-confirmation methods.

Instructor: Baize, with 10 years of crypto contract trading experience

Platform: KTX Official Chinese Lark Group

Date: June 23, 2026

Core Focus: BTC 62.9K pullback short setup · ETH 1688/1699 short orders · Adding to winning positions · SOL/ZEC/HYPE strategy review

Full Livestream Replay:

The full KTX Baize Trading Academy Web3 market livestream has been uploaded to YouTube.

1.Key Takeaways

BTC is still being treated as a bearish structure after a breakdown. Traders should not rush into longs just because price is near a higher-timeframe support area.
During the session, the neckline area around 62.3K was used to explain the pullback-short logic. In the Q&A, Baize further pointed to 62.8K-63.0K, with 62.9K as the more practical short-order reference.
ETH has a structure similar to BTC. Short-term rebounds can be watched around 1688 and 1699 for potential short orders, while low-level chase shorts are not preferred.
ETH 1600 is an important support area, but it is not an automatic take-profit level. Traders need confirmation from double-bottom/triple-bottom behavior, 2B/SB structures, weakening bearish volume, and bullish candlestick signals.
The key trading lesson in this session is "add to winning positions, not losing positions." Adding only makes sense when the direction is right, the position is already in profit, and the move is preparing to accelerate.
SOL was technically near support, but the broader trend remained bearish. The support-zone long setup was skipped, with a preference to wait for a breakdown and retest before considering shorts.
ZEC remains a bearish M-top and support-breakdown watch. If it weakens further, it may test or even break the 250 area.
HYPE's previous short setup came from a two-hour double-top/M-top structure. At the current lower level, Baize did not recommend chasing shorts.

2.Core Questions From This Session

BTC is already near a higher-timeframe support area. Why did Baize still advise against rushing into longs?
In a breakdown market, why is it often better to close only part of a short position at a take-profit area instead of fully exiting?
What does it mean to add to winning positions, and why can adding to losing positions turn a small loss into a large one?
Around ETH 1600, when should traders reduce shorts, and when should they instead treat the move as bearish continuation?
For SOL, ZEC, and HYPE, why is it dangerous to simply "buy support" or chase shorts after a large drop?

3.Trading Basics: Use Notional Value to Standardize Position Size

Baize began by explaining that different trading platforms display positions in different ways.

Some platforms show contract size, some show coin quantity, some show initial margin, and others show notional value. When traders switch between multiple platforms, these different formats can easily cause them to misread their actual exposure.

Baize suggested using "notional value" as the unified way to understand position size.

For example, when BTC trades near 60,000, a 60,000 USDT notional position is roughly equal to 1 BTC of exposure. With 20x leverage, 500 USDT of margin represents about 10,000 USDT of notional exposure, while 1,000 USDT of margin represents about 20,000 USDT of notional exposure.

The benefits are clear:

Traders are less likely to be confused by contract size, coin quantity, or platform-specific display formats.
Actual market exposure becomes easier to understand.
BTC, ETH, and altcoin positions can all be managed under the same position-size language.
Adding, reducing, and rolling positions becomes more consistent.

4.Trading System Lesson: Add to Winning Positions, Not Losing Positions

One of the most important parts of this session was Baize's explanation of adding to winning positions versus adding to losing positions.

He mentioned that his recent trades have mainly followed the short side, including reduced short positions in ZEC, ETH, and BTC. The ETH short position had already produced a relatively large unrealized profit. His account had grown from around 10,000 USDT to roughly 40,000 USDT, not because of constant top-and-bottom guessing, but because the direction was clear and he rolled positions with the trend.

Baize emphasized that many traders lose not because they have no direction at all, but because their adding logic is reversed:

If a position is losing immediately after entry, the entry level or trade logic may already be flawed.
If the position is already in loss and the trader keeps adding, a small loss can turn into a large one.
If the direction is correct, the position is in profit, and the market is about to accelerate, adding with the trend can make sense.
Many traders dare to add when losing but rush to reduce when winning. This often creates large losses and small gains.

A more reasonable process:

First confirm whether the direction is clear.
Then check whether the position is already profitable.
If the market is preparing to accelerate, use existing profit as protection for further adds.
If the trade is wrong from the start, do not use more size to cover up a wrong judgment.

This was one of the session's core trading lessons: adding to winning positions expands an existing advantage, while adding to losing positions is often just betting harder that the original judgment was not wrong.

5.BTC: Do Not Fall Into a Trend Blind Spot

BTC was the main focus of the session.

Baize warned that traders should not fall into a "trend blind spot." Seeing a weekly support area does not mean traders should immediately buy the dip. Support is only the first condition for a left-side reversal trade. It still requires further confirmation.

He listed four conditions for a left-side reversal setup:

Has price reached a higher-timeframe support area?
Has there been a clear reaction?
Has a reversal signal appeared?
Has there been right-side confirmation on the 1-hour or 4-hour chart?

At the moment, BTC only meets the first condition: it is near a higher-timeframe support area. The reaction, reversal signal, and right-side confirmation are still not enough. Therefore, support alone is not a reason to rush into longs.

Baize maintained his previous view that BTC may still form a daily-level fifth wave down. If that fifth wave plays out, price is likely to break the previous low.

Under this structure, the trading approach is not to chase a rebound long, but to roll short positions within the bearish trend.

Rolling-position principles:

If the larger trend is not over, do not fully close all short positions at once.
At an important intraday take-profit area, reducing 50% of the position is acceptable.
Keep part of the position for the trend and use the other part for intraday adjustments.
Crypto trades 24 hours a day. The real acceleration may happen overnight, and being fully flat can cause traders to miss the main move.

6.BTC Short Zone: 62.3K Explains the Neckline, 62.9K Is the More Practical Order Level

From the daily and lower-timeframe structures, BTC has broken below its previous rising trendline. After the breakdown, the retest turned the trendline into resistance. The daily candle also showed a long upper wick with almost no lower wick, which Baize treated as a bearish signal.

Baize viewed this as more like acceleration after a support breakdown, not a confirmed reversal.

During the session, he first used the area around 62.3K to explain the neckline-retest logic. This was the zone where a group of long positions had been trapped. If BTC rebounded back toward that neckline area, the short side would still have better risk-reward.

In the Q&A, Baize refined the practical order zone:

63.5K is too high and may be difficult to reach in the short term.
If BTC really rebounds to 63.5K, the structure may already have changed, or it may be a false breakout that needs reassessment.
The 63.0K area is meaningful.
62.8K-62.9K is a more practical short-order reference zone.
For BTC, 62.9K was the key practical short-order reference mentioned in the Q&A.

He also reminded traders that key support and resistance are zones, not exact lines. Orders should not always be placed only at round numbers, because the market often reacts just before or just after them.

7.ETH: Use the Nearest Relevant Neckline, Watch 1688/1699 for Short Orders

ETH's structure was similar to BTC: after a breakdown, the plan was to wait for a rebound and look for short entries.

When discussing ETH, Baize emphasized the "nearest relevant level" principle. When drawing a neckline or judging the short zone, traders should use the most recent bottom that is actually related to the current structure, instead of randomly using an older low that belongs to a different pattern.

ETH's current logic:

The trend remains bearish.
If previous short positions have been reduced, traders can wait for a rebound to rebuild them.
Rebounds toward 1688 and 1699 can be used as short-order references.
Low-level chase shorts are not preferred, and short-term support should not be used as a reason to rush into longs.

Baize also discussed stop-loss logic. He stressed that stop losses are important, but the trigger should be structural invalidation, not every normal fluctuation. If the trade logic, structure, and level are clear, and the position size is controlled, traders do not need to panic over ordinary wicks.

The point is not to ignore stop losses. The point is that stop losses should serve the structure.

8.ETH 1600 Support: Not an Automatic Take-Profit Level

ETH has two important downside support areas: 1600 and 1500.

Baize described 1600 as an important previous high/low transition area, while 1500 is closer to a previous double-bottom zone. However, reaching 1600 does not automatically mean traders should close shorts or enter longs.

If ETH reaches the 1600 area, traders should watch:

Whether price tests 1600 two or three times without breaking below it.
Whether a double bottom, triple bottom, 2B, or SB structure forms.
Whether bearish volume starts to weaken.
Whether a bullish pin bar, bullish engulfing candle, or other bullish candlestick signal appears.

Only after these confirmations appear should traders consider reducing shorts, closing shorts, or switching to a rebound framework.

On the other hand, if ETH breaks strongly below 1600 with a large bearish candle, even reaching 1588 or lower, then retests 1600 as resistance while bearish volume continues to expand, that is not a take-profit signal. It is a bearish-continuation signal.

The reason is that many long orders and dip-buying positions may sit around 1600. Once the level breaks strongly, those trapped longs may stop out or even flip short. Their "sell to close long" behavior can create a chain reaction and accelerate the decline.

So the key around ETH 1600 is simple: wait for confirmation, do not assume.

9.SOL: Technically at Support, but No Long Trade Under the Broader Bearish Trend

In the altcoin section, Baize first discussed SOL.

From a technical-chart perspective, SOL was near an M-top neckline support and a rising trendline support. Looking only at the local structure, it did look like a possible long position.

Baize's conclusion was clear: do not take the long.

The reason is that the broader market was still bearish, and BTC and ETH had not completed a trend reversal. In this environment, even when an altcoin reaches support, it is not ideal to force a counter-trend long.

A more reasonable SOL approach:

Do not take the support-zone long.
If key support breaks, wait for the retest.
After a breakdown and retest confirmation, look for a short opportunity.
In the Q&A, the short-order reference for SOL was around 72.1.

This was another important trading lesson from the session: a technically valid long area does not mean the trade must be taken. If the broader trend does not support it, waiting is often better than forcing a counter-trend entry.

10.ZEC: Bearish M-Top Structure, 250 Area Is the Key Level to Watch

ZEC was still treated as a bearish structure.

Baize noted that ZEC looked more like an M-top pattern, with price already close to a key support area. If support breaks and price retests it, the short logic would become clearer.

Core ZEC takeaways from this session:

The structure remains bearish.
The M-top neckline and key support area are the main focus.
The 250 area is an important observation zone.
If ZEC continues to weaken, it may test or even break below 250.

This should not be simplified into "it has dropped a lot, so buy it." In a bearish broader market with weaker altcoin liquidity, a ZEC support breakdown could instead lead to further downside.

11.HYPE: Previous Short Setup Worked, but Do Not Chase Shorts at the Current Low

HYPE was mainly discussed as a recap of the previous short setup.

Baize explained that HYPE had been a short candidate because the two-hour chart showed a double-top/M-top structure. Price then fell from the high area toward the 60 area, and the earlier short setup had already captured a meaningful move.

During the Q&A, when a user asked whether HYPE could still be shorted now, Baize clearly said no.

The reason was simple:

HYPE has already fallen from the high area.
The current level is relatively low.
There is no need to force a trade without a new structure.
If a new opportunity appears later, it should be handled after the structure becomes clear.

This matches the broader principle repeated throughout the session: being bearish does not mean traders can short at any price. If the level is uncomfortable, wait.

12.Core Trading Principles

Direction comes before level: before the trend reverses, do not turn bullish simply because price has reached support.
Left-side trades need confirmation: higher-timeframe support, reaction, signal, and right-side confirmation are all required.
Roll with the trend: in a bearish trend, reducing part of the short at a take-profit zone is fine, but do not fully close the entire trend position too early.
Add to winners, not losers: profit suggests the direction may be correct, while adding to losing positions can magnify a wrong judgment.
Support requires observation: 1600, 250, and 72.1 are zones, not exact points, and must be combined with structure and volume.
Avoid round-number obsession: key levels are areas, so orders can be placed slightly away from obvious round numbers.
Do not chase low shorts or force counter-trend longs: if the level is uncomfortable, wait for the next structure.

13.Q&A Highlights

Can HYPE Still Be Shorted Now?

Baize's answer: not recommended.

HYPE has already moved down from the high area after the previous short setup. The current level is relatively low, so chasing shorts has poor risk-reward. Without a new structure, there is no need to focus on it for now.

Can BTC Be Shorted at 63.5K?

Baize said 63.5K is too high and may not be reached in the short term. If BTC really rebounds to 63.5K, it may be a false breakout or a sign that the structure has changed, so the original plan should not be applied mechanically.

More meaningful areas are around 63.0K, or slightly lower around 62.8K-62.9K. The final BTC short-order reference mentioned in the Q&A was 62.9K.

Where Is the SOL Short Reference?

Baize did not recommend taking a SOL long at the current support area. The better approach is to wait for a breakdown and retest before looking for a short. The Q&A short-order reference was around 72.1.

Where Are the ETH Short References?

ETH rebound shorts can reference 1688 and 1699. Baize reminded traders not to rely only on round numbers such as 1700, because the market often reacts just before those obvious levels.

Why Avoid Placing Orders Only at Round Numbers?

Because key support and resistance are zones, not single lines. Price often reacts around a level instead of exactly on it. Placing orders slightly away from crowded round numbers can improve the chance of execution.

14.Livestream Resources and How to Join

Users who have not joined the KTX Lark official group can scan the QR code shown in the upper-right corner or at the bottom of the livestream screen. The group shares daily market views, livestream notices, strategy reviews, and related activities.

Baize Academy · 10 years of contract trading experience · Professional learning and practice for a different future

This article is compiled from the KTX official Chinese community livestream. All market analysis and trading suggestions are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency contract trading involves extremely high risk. Please participate cautiously based on your own risk tolerance.