1. Product Overview

1.1 Product Introduction

The essence of the prediction market is:To market-price the probability of future events, allowing users to express their judgments through trading.

Users trade not digital currencies or sports events themselves, but their judgments on the probability of future outcomes.

Currently, the KTX Prediction Market mainly covers:

• Cryptocurrency price predictions
• World Cup event predictions

Future expansions may include:

• Macroeconomic events
• ETF approval events
• Web3 ecosystem events
• AI and technology hotspot events

1.2 Product Features

Simple and easy to understand

No need for complex candlestick analysis or leverage operations, just judge the event outcome.

Limited risk

No leverage mechanism, no risk of liquidation.

User's maximum loss is limited to the invested principal.

Flexible trading

Supports:

• Buying
• Selling
• Early profit-taking
• Holding until settlement at expiration

Transparent pricing

Market prices reflect user consensus and probability expectations in real time.

2. Core Concepts and Basic Principles

2.1 Prediction Market Operation Principle

Each prediction event corresponds to several outcome positions.

For example:

Question:

Will BTC price be above 110,000 USDT at 16:00 on June 10, 2026 (UTC+8)?

Corresponding outcomes:

• UP (above target price)
• DOWN (below target price)

Users buy positions according to their judgment.

After the event ends:

• Correct position settlement value = 1 USDT
• Incorrect position settlement value = 0 USDT

2.2 Relationship Between Probability and Price

In the prediction market:

Position price ≈ market's perceived probability of the event occurring

For example:

Example:

UP price:

0.89 USDT

Indicates the market believes:

BTC has about an 89% chance of going up.

2.3 Spot Trading Principles

The prediction market uses a spot trading model.

Supports:

• Buying positions
• Holding positions
• Selling positions

Does not support:

• Selling positions without holding them
• Borrowing coins to short sell
• Leverage trading
• Liquidation mechanisms

That is:

Users must hold positions before they can sell them.

3. Market Structure and Product Categories

3.1 Homepage Market Overview

The homepage displays the overall operation status of the prediction market.

Including:

Market statistics

• Total number of active markets
• Cumulative trading volume
• 24-hour trading volume
• Total liquidity

3.2 Market Categories

Currently, two major sections are open:

Cryptocurrency predictions

Predicting future prices of cryptocurrencies.

Supports:

• BTC
• ETH
• SOL
• Other popular coins

Time periods:

• 1 hour
• 4 hours

Sports event predictions

Predicting outcomes of major sports events.

For example:

• World Cup
• European Championship
• UEFA Champions League
• NBA
• Esports events

4. Cryptocurrency Prediction Gameplay

4.1 Product Logic

Example:

Question:

Will BTC price be above the target price at the end of the next 4 hours?

Corresponding outcomes:

• UP
• DOWN

4.2 Page Composition

Real-time price chart

Displays:

• Current price
• Historical price trend
• Target price
• Countdown timer

Order Book

Displays market buy and sell depth:

Buy orders

Sell orders

4.3 Buying Logic

Buy UP

Believes:

BTC price will be above the target price at the deadline.

Buy DOWN

Believes:

BTC price will be below the target price at the deadline.

4.4 Exit Methods After Holding Positions

Method 1: Early Sell

When the market price moves favorably:

Users can sell positions early to lock in profits.

Applicable for:

• Early profit-taking
• Risk reduction
• Position adjustment

Method 2: Hold Until Expiration

No user action required.

The system automatically settles after the market ends.

If the prediction is correct:

Settlement value per position:

1 USDT

If the prediction is incorrect:

Settlement value:

0 USDT

5. Sports Event Prediction Gameplay

5.1 Product Logic

Football matches can end in a draw.

Therefore, an independent market design is adopted.

5.2 Example

Match:

Austria VS Algeria

Market 1

Question:

Will Austria win?

YES:

Austria wins

NO:

• Austria loses
• Draw

Market 2

Question:

Will Algeria win?

YES:

Algeria wins

NO:

• Algeria loses
• Draw

5.3 Draw Rules

Match result:

1:1

Then:

That is:

Draws in football matches are uniformly classified as NO outcomes.

6. Trading Mechanism

6.1 Order Types

Market Order

Executed immediately at the market's current best price.

Features:

• Fast execution
• Immediately obtain position
• Taker fee applies

Limit Order

User sets buy or sell price.

Features:

• Control over execution price
• Enters order book and waits for execution
• Maker executions enjoy zero fees

6.2 Maker-Taker Mechanism

KTX Prediction Market adopts a Maker-Taker fee model.

Maker (Order placer)

User submits limit orders to the order book.

Waits for other users to trade against them.

Fee: 0%

Taker (Order taker)

Actively executes against existing market orders.

Fee: 2%

6.3 Fee Standards

6.4 Fee Calculation Example

Buy

Buy: 100 UP positions

Price: 0.60

Transaction amount: 60 USDT

Fee: 60 × 2% = 1.2 USDT

Actual payment: 61.2 USDT

Sell

Sell proceeds: 100 USDT

Fee: 100 × 2% = 2 USDT

Actual receipt: 98 USDT

7. Split and Merge Mechanisms

7.1 Split Mechanism

Users can use USDT to create a complete event position set.

For example:

Investment: 100 USDT

System generates:

• YES × 100
• NO × 100

Since ultimately:

YES value + NO value = 1 USDT

Splitting is allowed.

Fee:

0%

7.2 Merge Mechanism

If a user holds:

• YES × 100
• NO × 100

They can initiate a merge with the system.

Receive: 100 USDT

Fee: 0%

7.3 Application Scenarios

Arbitrage Trading

If the market shows:

YES: 0.45

NO: 0.40

Total price: 0.85

Users can buy both:

YES + NO

Then merge later to receive:

1 USDT

Locking in arbitrage profit.

Early exit

Users do not need to wait for event completion.

Funds can be released early via merge.

8. Profit and Loss Calculation

8.1 Profit from Midway Trading

Buy: 100 UP positions

Price: 0.60

Cost: 60 USDT

Market rises: UP price rises to 0.80

Sell: 80 USDT

Profit: 20 USDT (before fees)

8.2 Profit Holding Until Expiration

Buy: 100 UP positions

Price: 0.89

Cost: 89 USDT

Final prediction correct:

Settlement value: 100 USDT

Profit: 11 USDT

Return rate: 12.36%

8.3 Prediction Failure

Buy: 100 UP positions

Price: 0.89

Cost: 89 USDT

Final result incorrect:

Settlement value: 0

Loss: 89 USDT

9. My Positions and Order Management

9.1 Positions

Displays: positions, market, outcome, average buy price / current price, principal, position quantity, profit/loss, current value, actions (buy more / sell)

9.2 Current Orders

Displays: market, direction, price, filled quantity, total quantity, order expiration time, actions (cancel)

9.3 History

Includes: all, partially filled, fully filled, cancelled

Displays: market, direction, type, order price, average fill price, quantity, income, status, time

10. Market Settlement Rules

10.1 Market Closure

After the deadline:

• Trading stops
• Order cancellation stops
• Settlement process begins

10.2 Result Determination

Cryptocurrency Market

Based on the KTX official spot price index designated price source.

Sports Event Market

Based on:

• Official event results
• Official data provider results

For determination.

To ensure fair and impartial market operation, KTX will handle abnormal events based on official event results and actual circumstances.

(1) Event Postponement

If the event is postponed but officially confirmed to continue, the prediction market remains valid.

• Executed orders remain valid;
• User positions remain;
• Market may continue or pause trading based on actual conditions;
• After the event officially completes, normal settlement is conducted based on final official results.

(2) Event Interruption or Abandonment

If the event is interrupted or terminated early due to weather, venue, emergencies, etc., KTX will handle according to the official final ruling:

• If the official confirms the result as valid, settlement is based on official results;
• If official schedules resumption, replay, or completion at a later date, the market remains valid and settles after the event ends;
• If the official declares the event canceled, settlement follows the "Canceled Event Settlement Rules".

(3) Event Cancellation

If the event is officially confirmed as permanently canceled, terminated, abandoned, or will no longer take place, the market enters a special settlement process.

Because the prediction market uses free trading between users, positions may have changed hands multiple times, making refund based on historical user purchase cost impossible.

In this case, the system will adopt the industry-standard 50-50 Settlement Principle:

• YES positions settle at 0.5 USDT each;
• NO positions settle at 0.5 USDT each.

Example:

User holds:

• YES × 100 positions

After event cancellation:

• Settlement amount = 100 × 0.5 = 50 USDT

This mechanism ensures market fund balance and fairly handles cases where final results cannot be determined due to event cancellation.

(4) Data Source Exceptions

If market results cannot be confirmed temporarily due to official data source failures, result disputes, data delays, or other force majeure, KTX has the right to:

• Suspend market settlement;
• Delay settlement time;
• Wait for official final results before settlement.

(5) Force Majeure Events

In cases of natural disasters, wars, cyber attacks, regulatory requirements, major system failures, or other force majeure preventing normal market operation, KTX may take measures including but not limited to:

• Suspending trading;
• Suspending settlement;
• Delaying settlement;
• Applying special settlement rules.

11. Risk Warning

Users should fully understand the following risks before participating in the prediction market:

Market Risk

• Prediction results are uncertain.
• Users may lose all invested funds.

Liquidity Risk

Some markets may experience:

• Insufficient buy/sell orders
• Inability to execute instantly
• Widened bid-ask spreads

Price Volatility Risk

• Market prices change in real time.
• Even if the final prediction is correct, unrealized losses may occur during holding.

System Risk

In extreme market conditions or network anomalies, the following may occur:

• Order placement delays
• Execution delays
• Data display delays

12. Quick Start for New Users

Step 1: Choose a Market

Enter the prediction market homepage.

Select:

• Cryptocurrency predictions
• World Cup event predictions

Step 2: View Market Data

Analyze:

• Current probability price
• Price chart
• Order book depth

Step 3: Create a Position

Select:

• YES / NO
• UP / DOWN

Enter quantity to complete purchase.

Step 4: Manage Positions

View in "My Positions":

• Profit and loss status
• Current price

Positions can be sold anytime.

Step 5: Wait for Settlement

After the event ends:

• System automatically completes settlement.
• Funds are automatically transferred to the account.

13. Product Advantages

No leverage, no liquidation

User risk is controllable, maximum loss limited to principal.

Price equals probability

Market prices directly reflect event occurrence probability.

Diverse prediction scenarios

Covers cryptocurrencies, sports events, and more future hotspot events.

Zero-fee market making

Maker, Split, and Merge transactions all have zero fees.

Encourages users to provide market liquidity.

Flexible exit mechanisms

Supports early selling, settlement at expiration, and Merge exits among other fund management methods.

Product Positioning Summary

The KTX Prediction Market is a probability trading platform based on real event outcomes. Users express their judgments on future events by trading YES/NO or UP/DOWN positions and form event probabilities through market price discovery. Price equals probability, trading equals prediction, and results equal settlement. Through two core scenarios—cryptocurrency and sports events—it builds an innovative trading product ecosystem combining tradability, entertainment, and social interaction.