In the previous cycle, when LTH-NUPL fell to 0.2, BTC was priced at $24,700. The sharpest wick of the later bear-market bottom reached $15,600, with a maximum swing of more than 30%. The entire process lasted 276 days.

Looking back now, if someone had started buying at $24,000, kept buying all the way down to $16,000, and then held until the bull-market high of $120,000, would you consider that strategy acceptable? I think most people would.

But if I put it another way: in this current pullback, suppose someone starts buying at $75,000 and continues buying down to $48,000. Can you accept that strategy?

I suspect many people cannot. Forget $48,000; even if BTC falls to $60,000, many people will jump out and say: what kind of nonsense analysis is this, you made us lose money.

But in reality, these two strategies are exactly the same. The maximum drawdown during the batch-buying process is more than 30% in both cases. The only difference is that one already has the later $120,000 high as a reference point, while the other is still happening in real time without a reference point.

You cannot see the true face of the mountain because you are standing inside it.

After reading some comments, I finally understand why no matter how hard I try to stay objective, some people still cannot be satisfied. There are two reasons.

First, some people have difficulty understanding text unless you use the simplest possible language, such as “bullish/bearish,” “all in/clear out,” or “buy/sell at this exact level.”

Second, they hold themselves to low standards but hold others to high standards. They cannot accept a price range and demand a precise prediction of the absolute bottom, while allowing themselves to remain at a low level of understanding for a long time.

To be honest, I admit I do not have that ability. In the last cycle, I also failed to buy BTC at $16,000. Fortunately, I was lucky enough to hold until the end.

So in this cycle, I have been using a framework of partial DCA plus batch buying. Once price enters my expected range, I start placing pyramid orders. For positions that chase rebounds before entering that range, I also set stop-losses in advance and reduce exposure if they are triggered.

So far, after three months, my account has a floating loss of -4.58%. The position control also fits my own risk preference. Compared with many teachers, I am still far behind, but I am quite satisfied with myself.

So if you have very high expectations for me, I will probably disappoint you. After all, our understanding of trading, methods, execution, and tolerance are completely different.

You do not need to use me as a reference. Just follow your own judgment.