┈➤ First, a qualitative analysis: challenging the 35,000 expectation

The key question is: if BTC falls from 60,000 to 35,000, who is doing the selling?

In 2018, the market declined gradually.

In June 2022, BTC quickly dropped to around 17,000, and by the end of the year it fell to around 15,000. That was because the market had already formed a consensus around the 2022 bear market, so much of the selling had happened before June.

Fast forward to 2026. The market’s bear-market consensus is even stronger, so BTC had already fallen to 60,000 in February.

If we assume the 2026 bottom is 35,000, I want to ask: who exactly is pushing BTC down from 60,000 to 35,000?

First, most people already knew 2026 would be a bear market. I originally did not think so, but I also woke up in January and basically cleared my positions at a loss.

Second, even if some people did not sell before February, BTC later rebounded above 80,000. Wouldn’t those people have sold then?

Third, we have to admit that some younger retail investors did not sell at 60,000 or 80,000, and only panicked during the later decline. But are there really that many people like this? In the 2025 cycle, the amount of new capital and new retail participants was clearly very small. Can this group really push BTC from 60,000 down to 35,000?

Think about whether this logic makes sense.

In 2026, with fewer new retail traders and more experienced old holders, the market quickly recognized the bear market and exited. That is why the first bottom formed after only four months of decline. There are not many people left to create later selling pressure, and that pressure is not enough to push BTC much lower.

┈➤ Next, a quantitative analysis: using the past cycle as a reference

╰✦ Anchoring to 2022

Because this decline looks somewhat similar to 2022, and both cycles likely involve at least two bottoming attempts, let’s use 2022 as the reference.

First dip: in 2022, BTC fell from around 69,000 to about 17,600, a decline of 51,400.

Second dip: by the end of 2022, BTC fell to around 15,500, meaning it dropped another 2,100 from 17,600.

The first dip reflected the bear-market expectation and was basically a one-step repricing. The second dip happened because of the FTX collapse. That was a liquidity black swan, not just an emotional selloff, because FTX had to sell coins to prevent a run.

So the second dip as a percentage of the first dip was:

2,100 / 51,400 = 4.0856%

╰✦ Applying it to 2026

First dip: 126,000 to 60,000 = 66,000

Second dip: 66,000 × 4.0856% ≈ 2,700

60,000 - 2,700 = 57,300

╰✦ Logic adjustment

If we only anchor to the past without adjusting the logic, the reference value is limited. But because the first and second dips are within the same cycle, this ratio is still meaningful.

However, 2022 and 2026 cannot be compared too mechanically, because the environments are different.

Positive adjustment: the bear-market consensus in 2026 is stronger, meaning selling pressure during the first dip was larger and more likely to be completed in one move. So the second dip as a percentage of the first dip may be lower.

Negative adjustment: the black swan at the end of 2022 was FTX. In 2026, the black swan could be rate hikes, high oil prices, global economic weakness, or even recession. So the second dip as a percentage of the first dip may be higher.

As for whether the positive or negative adjustment matters more, it depends on the macro environment. June still has major events, including CPI data and the first dot plot after Warsh takes office, so we still cannot confirm whether this second dip in June is the final bottom.

Based on my earlier calculation, the second bottom should be around 55,000. If there is macro negative news, it still should not fall below 50,000.

┈➤ The possibility of a third dip

In 2017, there was one major upward push, and in 2018 there was only one main bottoming attempt. The second dip was actually the March 12, 2020 crash.

In 2021, there were two major upward pushes, and in 2022 there were also two bottoming attempts.

In 2025, there were three upward pushes, so I suspect there may also be three bottoming attempts.

This is not just mechanically copying the past. It should reflect the fluctuation of market sentiment.

Also, in terms of events, there is a dot plot in September and the midterm elections in November, so the September to October period does have events that could trigger another decline.

If this cycle does have a third dip, the bottom of that third dip is hard to say. It will mainly depend on macro events.

But in theory, the third dip may be smaller, because most of the people who needed to sell should have already sold during the first two dips. In an optimistic scenario, the third bottom may be similar to the second bottom.

Even if there is a black swan, it may not be able to push BTC much lower from the 50,000 area.

So my pessimistic expectation for a third bottom is around 45,000, though it is still too early to say. The U.S.-Iran agreement, the Strait, and Warsh’s influence at the Fed all still need to be watched.

┈➤ One more logic: is anyone buying?

Some people pointed out that the issue with BTC falling below 60,000 is not who is selling, but whether anyone is buying.

Coincidentally, I answered this in another article:

https://x.com/blockTVBee/status/2062415576480547300

On one hand, BTC held on CEXs has been in a long-term downtrend, which suggests that more people may be holding BTC long term. Of course, some of it may also have moved into ETFs.

On the other hand, the previous screenshot was not clear, so I took another one. Since December, it is very obvious that while BTC has been falling, the amount of BTC held by ETFs has been rising.

So who is buying BTC should be self-evident.

Conclusion: my view on BTC’s bottom this year is that it is most likely around 55,000, with a smaller probability around 45,000. The probability of going much lower than that is extremely, extremely low.

Original author: TVBee🦅

X account: @blockTVBee

Original post: https://x.com/blockTVBee/status/2063520808539238645?s=20

Risk note: This is a community post collection only and does not constitute investment advice. DYOR.